A professor of economics at the University of Guelph is suggesting adapting to climate change, rather than putting massive efforts into reducing emissions, could be a more effective policy.
“But while adaptation has an excellent record of success, mitigation has proven a costly failure. Despite 30 years of aggressive international mitigation effort, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise.”
Whether it’s health or agricultural yields, taking steps to adapt to climate variability shows greater promise than focusing only on trying to reduce emissions, said the paper, titled “Adaptation Needs Greater Focus in Climate Policy.”
Mr. McKitrick points to air conditioning as a simple example of what he means by adaptation.
“For example, research has shown that mortality due to heat waves has declined dramatically in the United States since 1960 when households obtained access to air conditioning and low-cost electricity,” he writes.
In contrast, he noted, “policies that drive up the cost of electricity put air conditioning out of the reach of many people, thereby increasing their vulnerability to hot weather.”
Mr. McKitrick’s paper comes at a time when Canada is looking at ramping up efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
On Aug. 10, the federal government announced its proposed regulations around achieving a net-zero electrical grid by 2035.
The feds also claim overall household expenditures on energy will drop by 12 percent by 2050.
However, at least two provincial premiers are not buying it.
Mounting Mitigation Costs
Mr. McKitrick’s paper notes that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are becoming more costly as time goes on, with little evidence they are making much difference.“As the costs of mitigation efforts mount it is necessary for policy makers to confront the risk that continued attempts at aggressive mitigation policy may in fact impede adaptation and increase the harm from future warming,” it says.
The paper points out that global CO2 emissions have shown steady growth, except for periods of economic recession.
“The main interruptions to emissions growth are associated with major global recessions, namely, 1979–1980, 1990–1991, 2008 and 2020, not global climate policy. Notably neither the UN Framework Convention of 1992, the Kyoto Protocol (ratified in 2002), or the Paris Accord of 2015 are visible events along the emissions path (much less any Canadian policy efforts).”
Mr. McKitrick said that even if all countries involved were to achieve the negotiated reductions in emissions, it would have little effect on the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
“The proposed changes are too small at the global level in the context of the global carbon cycle to matter, despite which they have also largely proven to be too costly to implement. To an even greater extent therefore, all domestic Canadian policies are likewise utterly irrelevant to the progress of climate change over the coming century,” the paper says.
On top of that, he said, there is also the problem of “leakage.” That’s when jurisdictions with strict rules over CO2 emissions, like Canada, simply shift production to somewhere else. He said it may be one of the reasons why the Kyoto Protocol seemed to have little effect.
“Participating countries did reduce their emissions, but they also increased the carbon intensity of their imports: in other words, the emitting activity simply shifted to regions without CO2 controls such as China and India,” the paper said.
Mr. McKitrick pointed to Germany, which has invested heavily in solar and wind power, as an example of what happens when the push to reduce emissions becomes difficult. Partly as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany has restarted a number of coal plants.
“One of the world’s biggest promoters of wind and solar power thus turned to fossil fuels when faced with a sudden need for reliable and affordable electricity, which is a tacit admission that its pursuit of renewables was incompatible with reliability and cost-effectiveness.”
Overall, said Mr. McKitrick, some 30 years of policy experience is showing that “preventing global emissions from rising, or the climate from changing, is not going to be feasible.”
“Global emissions have continued rising and people have simply adapted to the climate changes they have experienced, often without even thinking about it.”
He also warned that if governments continue to pursue aggressive emission reductions, it will increase energy costs and reduce real incomes—both of which will reduce the ability to take adaptive measures to climate variations, whether natural or man-made.
“When it comes to choosing an overall direction in climate policy, priorities must be set, and the record shows that while mitigation is often costly and futile, adaptation is relatively inexpensive and highly effective. It deserves greater focus in climate policy planning,” the paper says.
