Poland’s Pro-EU Candidate Holds Slim Presidential Lead at National Juncture; Runoff Projected

If no candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote, it’s likely that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go face-to-face in a runoff election due on June 1.

Supporters of Warsaw's mayor and member of Poland's ruling Civic Coalition party Rafal Trzaskowski (R) observe their presidential candidate debating his main opponent Karol Nawrocki (L) of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party in front of the Polish National Television headquarters in Warsaw on May 12, 2025. Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

In a closely contested Polish presidential election on May 18, Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) narrowly led the first round, according to an Ipsos exit poll.

Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor and a member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European, liberal-centrist KO coalition, secured 30.8 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of conservative historian Karol Nawrocki at 29.1 percent who is endorsed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.