Poland’s Pro-EU Candidate Holds Slim Presidential Lead at National Juncture; Runoff Projected

If no candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote, it’s likely that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go face-to-face in a runoff election due on June 1.

Supporters of Warsaw's mayor and member of Poland's ruling Civic Coalition party Rafal Trzaskowski (R) observe their presidential candidate debating his main opponent Karol Nawrocki (L) of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party in front of the Polish National Television headquarters in Warsaw on May 12, 2025. Wojtek Radwanski/AFP via Getty Images

In a closely contested Polish presidential election on May 18, Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) narrowly led the first round, according to an Ipsos exit poll.

Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor and a member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European, liberal-centrist KO coalition, secured 30.8 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of conservative historian Karol Nawrocki at 29.1 percent who is endorsed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Trzaskowski, a seasoned politician with a liberal, urban base, contrasts with Nawrocki, a newcomer lacking electoral experience but supported by PiS’s conservative, rural, and nationalist voters.

Polls opened at 7 a.m. local time and closed at 9 p.m., with approximately 29 million eligible voters participating.

A Crossroads for the Nation

Poland’s presidential race pits two candidates with starkly different visions, and will decide whether Warsaw deepens its pro-European trajectory under Prime Minister Donald Tusk or steps toward a nationalist path.

In Poland, the president has the power to veto legislation, and will allow the new president to either support or obstruct the reforms and agenda of Tusk’s government.

Trzaskowski champions Poland’s deep EU integration, pushing for a pivotal role in European policymaking. He endorses military support for Ukraine, and he recently expressed support for a tougher stance against more immigration.

Nawrocki, a EU skeptic, supports Polish sovereignty and a strong U.S.-Poland alliance. He says he is inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” vision, and he opposes any further liberalization of abortion and LGBT rights, with policies that align with PiS’s traditionalist, Catholic principles.

Some voters expect this election to break the political deadlock.

“I think that for many Poles, these are very important elections, a meeting of different visions of the country,” a Polish humanist, who wanted to remain anonymous, told the NTD, as emotions were running high during the election campaign.

“I hope that, despite all the differences that are now in Poland, the new president will succeed in contributing to reducing social divisions in the country, to greater agreement, harmony in social life.”

Runoff on June 1

If no candidate wins over 50 percent of the vote, it’s likely that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go face-to-face in a runoff election due on June 1.

“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination.”

Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round.

There are 13 presidential candidates listed on the ballot, including right-wing candidate Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the center-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left.

However, there are still variables at play for the potential runoff that could see Mentzen, who is popular on online platforms such as TikTok with a lot of young supporters, make the second round of voting as a dark horse.

Mr. Krzysztof Olesiński, a Polish designer, told NTD that Mentzen is one of three candidates he supports.

“I wish the future government of Poland will work together with the current Trump administration because it’s all about reality. The European Union seems to have some aspirations of controlling people’s lives, and that’s something I don’t support.

“People should have a real democracy and not psychological warfare,” he said.

Implications for European and Global Politics

This Polish election comes at a political juncture for the EU, characterized by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the rise in support for conservative values after decades of liberalization, and tighter U.S.-EU relations.

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the EU’s fifth most populous member and sixth-largest economy, Poland has gained new stature on the European stage.

On May 7, just one day after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s inauguration, he visited Warsaw to meet Tusk, following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

Two days later, on May 9 for “Europe Day,” Tusk traveled to Nancy, France, to sign a new Franco-Polish friendship treaty with Macron, declaring an “irreversible unity” between the two nations.

The following day, Tusk joined Macron, Merz, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Kyiv, collectively calling for an immediate, unconditional cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.

Geographically, Poland serves as a buffer between NATO and Russian influence, bordering Belarus to the east and Ukraine to the south, making it a critical pillar of regional security.

Poland has pushed for robust NATO defense policies and, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland swiftly expressed support for Kyiv and stepped up to become one of Ukraine’s largest sources of military aid and places of refuge for Ukrainians fleeing the violence.

Reuters contributed to this report.

From NTD News