On March 22, a shocking attack took place during a concert at Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow by the ISIS terrorist group. Multiple attackers opened fire, leading to 144 confirmed deaths and over 340 injuries so far, according to Russian officials.
Russia has arrested over 10 individuals, including the four attackers. So far, ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has focused on who operated in the background, using the terrorists to orchestrate the attack.
Shifting Blame
Not only did ISIS admit to the attack, but they also provided recorded footage of the scene, said Mr. Li, adding that approximately 24 hours after the attack, Mr. Putin delivered a speech, saying the attackers had fled toward Ukraine and that Ukraine may have provided them with a passage to safety. Mr. Putin said that the attack was carried out by Islamist militants but suggested it was to Ukraine’s benefit.In response, Ukraine denied any involvement, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Mr. Putin of seeking to “shift the blame” onto Kyiv for the terrorist attack.
The day after the attack, National Security Agency (NSC) spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement, “ISIS bears sole responsibility for this attack. There was no Ukrainian involvement whatsoever.”
Mr. Li said that on March 7, two weeks before the attack, the U.S. Embassy in Russia issued a warning about potential terrorist attacks, advising American citizens in Russia to be vigilant, avoid public places, including concerts and music events, and leave Russia within 48 hours if possible.
By March 19, just days before the attack, Mr. Putin dismissed the U.S. warning as psychological warfare against Russia, he added.
After the attack, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova cast doubt on ISIS being solely responsible for the attacks.
“In order to ward off suspicions from the collective West, they urgently needed to come up with something, so they resorted to ISIS, pulled an ace out of their sleeve, and literally a few hours after the terrorist attack, the Anglo-Saxon media began disseminating precisely these versions,” Ms. Zakharova is widely reported to have said.
On March 26, the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) accused Ukraine, along with the United States and Britain, of being involved in the Moscow terrorist attack.
Warning From the US
Mr. Heng said there is “no doubt” ISIS-K carried out the terrorist attack in Moscow since they claimed responsibility, but the key issue is the strange timing of the incident.Firstly, the United States issued a warning, and then the attack happened, he said, adding that it is reminiscent of the U.S. intelligence’s prediction in February 2022 about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which many dismissed as baseless in the beginning.
“After 9/11, the United States has had strong intelligence-gathering capabilities among terrorist organizations, able to monitor various sources of information and analyze them to anticipate potential attacks in public places,” said Mr. Heng.
“While Russia may publicly dismiss U.S. warnings as psychological warfare or intimidation, behind the scenes, they would undoubtedly take them seriously.”
Secondly, during the attack, the terrorists opened fire for fifteen minutes. Considering Moscow’s security, especially during wartime, security measures are usually robust, yet the terrorists still carried out the massacre for fifteen minutes before retreating. Russian security forces only apprehended the suspects hundreds of miles away from Moscow on their escape route, Mr. Heng said.
This incident may further strengthen Mr. Putin’s efforts to suppress his opposition and foster Russian unity, he said, which means that Ukraine gains nothing from the incident. It doesn’t weaken Russian combat capability.
“If Ukraine were behind the attack, they would only be putting themselves at a disadvantage,” Mr. Heng said.
ISIS and Russia
Mr. Heng continued to explain that there are several factors behind ISIS’s involvement. Islamic extremists have a longstanding enmity with Russia. Starting from the Afghan War in 1979 when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the Soviets fought against Islamic extremists. Gradually emerging from resistance organizations opposing the Soviet invasion, these extremists later became part of various terrorist groups.These groups had some connection with the United States as the United States armed them to fight the Soviet Union, he said.
These same terrorist groups later fought against Russia in Chechnya. During the Syrian Civil War, Russia supported Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in suppressing certain rebel factions, some of which were ISIS. Therefore, ISIS does indeed have animosity towards Russia.
ISIS belongs to Sunni extremists, Mr. Heng said.
Past US Interests in the Region
Ms. Guo said many people are trying to understand why would ISIS, which hates the United States and the West, attack Russia when Russia, China, Iran, and some other forces in the Middle East have formed an “axis of evil” to confront the West.In the Islamic world, there is a long-standing sectarian conflict between Shia and Sunni Islamic groups. Shia Islam dominates Iran, as well as in some parts of Iraq and Syria, with groups like Hezbollah and Houthis belonging to this sect. Sunni Islam is predominant in the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and North Africa, she said.
When the Sunni extremist groups in Iraq and Syria were at their strongest, they established ISIS, Ms. Guo said. After ISIS grew in power, it began carrying out terrorist activities in the West and was eventually eliminated during President Donald Trump’s administration.
The issue is that Russia has been supporting the Syrian regime from the beginning and primarily targeting ISIS terrorists, she added. Russia provided aircraft and missiles, and even deployed special forces, including the Wagner Group, to fight in Syria. ISIS suffered heavy losses as a result of Russian intervention, so there is also deep-seated enmity between ISIS and Russia.
Additionally, the group claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack was ISIS-K, the Afghan version of ISIS, Ms. Guo said. The K stands for “Khorasan,” a region that includes parts of present-day Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.
ISIS-K emerged in late 2014 in eastern and northern Afghanistan, and after the United States withdrew its troops, the Taliban regime was completely unable to control them, she said. Afghanistan shares borders with Tajikistan, and there are many Tajiks in Afghanistan. The terrorists who attacked Moscow were all from Tajikistan.
Mr. Guo said that there is a reason why the United States has very accurate intelligence on ISIS. Before ISIS was established, America’s goal was to counter the expansion of Shia influence in that region. After the fall of Saddam’s regime in Iraq, the influence of Shia factions with ties to Iran greatly increased, so the emergence of the Sunni ISIS was, from America’s perspective, a balancing force in the region.
“Of course, there was also a conspiracy theory that ISIS was supported by the United States in its early days, such as claims that most of ISIS’s early weapons were American-made,” she said. “Some of those [weapons] were actually looted from Iraq. Nevertheless, after Trump took office in 2016, ISIS was dealt a deadly blow, and ISIS in Syria and Iraq was essentially wiped out.”
Ms. Guo said that carrying out such terrorist attacks against Russia does not help America’s strategic goals in any way. It neither prevents Russia from continuing its invasion of Ukraine nor changes the internal political situation in Russia.
“It strengthens Russian nationalism, which has no benefit for the United States,” she said. “Therefore, this attack is obviously unrelated to the United States, contrary to what Russian propagandists are saying.”
Additionally, in the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States has always been restraining Ukraine, not allowing Ukraine to use American weapons to fight against Russia on Russian soil, for fear of escalation of the war, she added.
“Let’s put it this way, the United States has a toolbox full of tools to deal with Russia, and it won’t use a method that has no positive effect whatsoever,” she said.
