New Zealand Negotiating Critical Minerals Deal With the US

A claim before the Waitangi Tribunal covering the country’s petroleum, natural gas and minerals could impede a deal with the US.

US President Donald Trump (L) speaks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon upon their arrival for a special dinner hosted in honour of US President Donald Trump and state leaders at the Hilton Gyeongju hotel in Gyeongju on October 29, 2025. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

New Zealand is in confidential negotiations with the United States on the supply of critical minerals after President Donald Trump issued a proclamation on Jan. 14 declaring that countries that didn’t sign a deal would be subject to tariffs.

Having officially joined a trading partnership last year, New Zealand has been designated a “foreign trading partner” and could face tariffs if it doesn’t negotiate.

But a claim before the Waitangi Tribunal covering Māori rights to a share of the country’s petroleum, natural gas and minerals could potentially stymie the deal.

While the Tribunal cannot stop the deal, its findings often serve as the legal basis for judicial reviews in the New Zealand courts, where a judge could potentially find the government’s actions unlawful if they breached statutory requirements to consider the Treaty.

President Trump’s proclamation says processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs) are being “imported ... in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States,” which it attributes to being “too reliant on foreign sources ... lack[ing] access to a sufficiently secure and reliable supply chain ... unsustainable price volatility [and] weakened domestic manufacturing and production capacity.”

In November 2025, President Trump predicted the U.S. could end its dependence on China for rare-earth minerals within 18 months.

Currently, the U.S  is totally or largely dependent on imports of over 40 critical minerals, while China is the leading refiner with a reported global market share of 70 percent.

The elements are essential to advanced weapons systems, high-tech industries (including artificial intelligence and data centres), nuclear energy, and electric vehicles.

New Zealand’s participation in negotiations was revealed after claimants submitted a memorandum to the Waitangi Tribunal pointing to the “secret” agreement signed between the U.S. and Australia in October 2025, claiming it was “likely to provide the template” for any deal with New Zealand, and demanding the government reveal whether it was negotiating with America.

Government Caught Between Tariff Threat and Treaty Obligation

The submission says a deal similar to Australia’s would show “wilful disregard” for the Crown’s obligations under the Treaty of Waitangi.

While the government has shown a willingness to involve Māori interests in other projects utilising natural resources, such as geothermal power development, the behind-closed-doors nature of the critical minerals negotiations means Māori representatives have not been consulted.

The claimants argued that there was “a risk that such a negotiation is already underway and could be finalised and signed without Māori, or anyone else in [New Zealand], being made aware.”

Aboriginal interests in Australia had similar criticisms of that country’s deal, with former Greens-turned-independent Senator Lidia Thorpe saying the Australian prime minister was “trading stolen goods from stolen land with President Trump in this minerals deal.”

The U.S.-Australia deal incorporates informal price supports, limits on Chinese investment, and compliance enforced through the threat of trade retaliation rather than formal dispute mechanisms.

After the Tribunal memorandum became public, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade confirmed that discussions were underway regarding a “non-binding critical minerals framework” with the United States and signalled that an announcement on the deal could be just weeks away.

‘Fast Track’ Legislation

Under New Zealand’s Resources Minister Shane Jones, the country has lifted bans on new mining imposed by the previous government, and fast-tracked approval for seabed mining off the Taranaki coast, which is expected to produce approximately 5 million tonnes of vanadium-rich titanomagnetite concentrate.

Several of the 19 other fast-tracked mining projects are also seeking rare earth minerals, including nickel, antimony, and cobalt.

Jones refused to comment on the negotiations.

The government has mapped mineral reserves, resources, and processing capacity in 2024 and, in January 2025, published a Minerals Strategy that included a list of 37 critical minerals, 21 of which could be exploited in New Zealand.

The strategy aims to double mineral exports to $3 billion (US$2.08 billion) by 2035.