NDIS Reforms to Remove Nearly 250,000 People From Scheme, Officials Confirm

The figure represents almost a third of the current number of participants and is significantly higher than the government’s previous estimates.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme NDIS logo is seen at the head office in Canberra, Australia, on June 22, 2022. AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

Almost a quarter of a million people will no longer receive support through from the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) under reforms introduced by the Albanese government, officials have confirmed to the Senate.

The figure is well above previous estimates from Health Minister Mark Butler, who said the number would be around 160,000.

The Community Affairs Legislation Committee is holding an inquiry into the National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Bill 2026 and was hearing evidence from the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing.

In response to questions from Greens Senator Jordon Steele-John, department officials confirmed that 241,000 fewer people would be receiving support under the scheme by June 2031 as a result of the legislation.

Of that number, 155,000 would be aged 18 and under, while 85,000 would be aged 19 and over. The number of people with an autism diagnosis affected by the changes would be 115,000—fewer than the 145,000 figure previously reported by other media outlets.

Children with low to moderate autism will be able to obtain support through the Thriving Kids program, Anthea Long, first assistant secretary at the Treasury department, pointed out. It will be phased in from October 2026 and will become fully operational by January 2028.

A June report from the Centre for Independent Studies found that 43 percent of all NDIS participants have a primary diagnosis of autism.

The government is struggling to contain the cost of the scheme, which reached $50.7 billion (US$35.1 billion) in the last financial year, covering 774,456 participants.

Following the release of the 2026-27 federal budget, the government unveiled plans to reduce the cost of the NDIS by $15 billion annually by the end of the decade.

Advisory Group Will Guide Changes

Mary Wood, deputy secretary at the Health Department, said the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) would provide advice to the government on implementing NDIS reforms.

“And ministers have acknowledged that the advice of that group of experts will be the primary basis for their consideration of what to propose for the rules that will then need to be considered by the states and territories,” she said.

The outcome of the group’s deliberations will be a “standardised, evidence-based assessment of a person’s functional capacity rather than relying on diagnosis,” Long explained.

“But the TAG is clearly aware of the many complexities of that task, including the need for different tools to assess people who have fluctuating or episodic conditions of whatever nature.”

Steele-John noted that the committee had heard from some providers and participants who claimed people were already being moved off the scheme. However, the claim was denied by National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) Manager of National Operations Andrew Maitland.

“There have been no changes to our practices in the front line,” he said. “These issues were first raised in the June estimates hearing, and our CEO, Graeme Head, tabled at the time communications to staff, clearly articulating that there is no changes to the way that we do any of our existing processes until the legislation is passed by the Parliament.”

Butler previously defended the reforms aimed at cutting costs, describing them as “a much more efficient, but also effective, way in which to give support to people, frankly, who were never intended to be covered by the NDIS in the first place.”