What the Byelection Results Mean for the Federal Parties

New MPs take part in an orientation session in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on May 21, 2025. Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images

The April 13 byelections and recent defections have given the Liberal Party a majority government, fundamentally changing the dynamics in the House of Commons.

The governing Liberals now hold a majority of 174 seats, while opposition parties have 169 seats.

Here’s what analysts say are the biggest takeaways from the byelections for the major parties, and how it will reshape Parliament going forward.

Liberals

In addition to winning all three byelections, the Liberal Party performed better than it did in the 2025 election in terms of voter share. The party’s voter share in University—Rosedale in Toronto rose to 64.4 percent from 64 percent, in Scarborough Southwest in Toronto to 69.9 percent from 61.5 percent, and in Terrebonne in the Montreal area to 48.4 percent from 38.7 percent.

Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives for a caucus meeting on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Jan. 25, 2026. The Canadian Press/Patrick Doyle

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research, said that while the outcome for the Toronto ridings was never in doubt, the party’s win in Terrebonne was more notable. He said this is evidence that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “personal brand is still strong, as it was during the last election” among large numbers of voters.

While the Liberals’ support is holding, they should note that Canadians are increasingly concerned about the state of the economy and the rising cost of living, Nanos said. He added that while likeability matters, Canadians ultimately judge the government by the results it delivers.

“Every government has its ‘best before’ date. The question is, how much latitude and how much licence are Canadians willing to give the Carney government before they see results?” he said.

Now that the Liberals have a majority government, they will face fewer obstacles in implementing their agenda, as they will no longer need the support of opposition parties to pass legislation. This could also affect House committees, as the Liberals could amend the standing orders through a House vote to establish a majority.

Carney suggested during an April 14 press conference that the Liberals would change the makeup of committees, saying that they would now have less “showboating” and more “substance” and that parliamentarians would appreciate this, “even if it’s changed for some of them.”

Conservatives

While the Conservatives were not expected to pick up any seats in the three byelections, the party is likely to be disappointed by its share of the vote. In Terrebonne, the Conservatives won just 3.3 percent of the vote in the byelection, compared to 18.2 percent back in the 2025 election.

They fared no better in Toronto, with just 12.4 percent of the vote in University—Rosedale on April 13 compared to 23.5 percent in 2025, and 18.4 percent in Scarborough Southwest compared to 30.6 percent in 2025.

Tim Powers, chair of Summa Strategies, told The Epoch Times that the Conservatives should “not dismiss” the results of the byelections even though they were not projected to win. Powers said the party should “spend some time reflecting on” its decline in voter share in the ridings.

With the Liberal Party achieving a majority through four Conservative floor-crossings, Powers said Tory Leader Pierre Poilievre is “as vulnerable as he has ever been.” Powers said that while Poilievre has attempted to change his personal style, he should make more of an effort to manage his caucus.

“When you lose four MPs and you have stories popping up about others going, ... something’s not right. So it’s probably in the interest of both caucus and the leader to really discuss it,” Powers said.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre rises in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 9, 2026. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

Following the byelection results, Poilievre said the Liberals obtained a majority through “backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them.” Poilievre vowed to continue to lead the Conservatives in their fight for a lower cost of living and lower crime for Canadians. Poilievre won an 87 percent approval rate at his leadership review in late January.

Nanos said Conservative support fell in the byelections in part because Conservative voters weren’t motivated to go to the polls in those ridings because it was “clear from the get-go that the Conservatives never had a chance to win any of those ridings.”

He added that he believes that in Terrebonne, some Conservative voters did not turn out to vote, while others who “hate the Liberals” came out and voted strategically for the Bloc candidate.

As for Poilievre’s leadership, Nanos said he does not believe the Conservatives’ trailing poll numbers are a large issue, given that Canada is not in an election cycle. According to recent April 12 polling from Nanos Research, the Conservatives are trailing the Liberals by 13 points nationally, with support at 32 percent compared to the Liberals at 45.3 percent and the NDP at 12.2 percent.

However, Nanos said Poilievre will need to carefully manage the “complex” issue of MPs defecting to the Liberal Party, and put forth a narrative beyond “it’s a backroom deal and he doesn’t like it.” Nanos said the slew of floor-crossings has raised questions among voters about Poilievre’s leadership, especially with the latest surprise crossing of social conservative Marilyn Gladu.

Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, said the Conservatives would be wise to keep Poilievre as their leader despite the Liberals obtaining a majority government. Wiseman said that if the party had gotten rid of their leader after the 2004 election loss, Stephen Harper would have never become prime minister and govern for nearly a decade.

“By 2029, when we’re going to have the general election, things will be completely different. You’ve got to play the long game. [U.S. President Donald] Trump isn’t going to be in the picture, and the Liberals will have picked up a fair bit of baggage by then,” he said.

NDP

NDP Leader Avi Lewis in Winnipeg on March 29, 2026. The Canadian Press/John Woods

The New Democrats performed better in two of the byelection ridings than in the 2025 federal election. The NDP won 18.9 percent of the vote in University—Rosedale on April 13, compared to 9.9 percent in the 2025 election, while they won 6 percent in Scarborough Southwest compared to 5 percent in 2025.

However, with the Quebec riding of Terrebonne being a two-way race, the NDP’s vote share was just 0.5 percent in the byelection compared to 2.6 percent in 2025.

Nanos said it was “too early to say” if the NDP’s improved performance was due to Avi Lewis recently becoming the party’s leader. He also suggested that the NDP’s higher vote share in University—Rosedale was because Liberal voters are concerned with Carney “moving too close to the centre” and choosing to instead vote for the NDP.

Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, said the NDP is likely pleased with its performance in Toronto, where it was previously “competitive.” But he said the party’s low voter share in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne indicated “they have a long way to go back in that province.”

Bloc Québécois

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves François Blanchet speaks with reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons on Sept. 19, 2024. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

The Bloc had hoped it would win back the riding of Terrebonne, which it lost in the 2025 election by just a single vote. While the Bloc secured 46.8 percent of the vote compared to 38.7 percent in 2025, it lost the riding to the Liberals by 731 votes.

Nanos said April 13 was a “bittersweet night” for the Bloc, especially given that the party has historically shown strength in Terrebonne.

“From a historical perspective, the Bloc has basically held that riding almost all of the time since the 1980s,” Nanos said.

The pollster said Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet will need to consider the strength of Carney in Quebec and what that might mean for the party’s future.