London’s population bounced back after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, reaching record highs, a think tank has found.
The escape of Londoners from the capital led to a 0.7 percent drop in population between mid-2019 and mid-2021.
More than 75,000 people moved out of London during that time, the equivalent of the population of a town the size of Tunbridge Wells.
Most people leaving London moved to southeast England before, during, and after the pandemic. Popular destinations included South Oxfordshire, Winchester, Wiltshire, and Cornwall.
However, the outflow of people was at a “modest level,” researchers said.
“The population dip during Covid was considerably smaller than the figures in the hundreds of thousands that some predicted,” said Andrew Carter, chief executive of Centre for Cities.
What followed was an influx of 66,000 people moving to the capital by mid-2022.
The London boroughs of Camden and Tower Hamlets saw a population increase that exceeded their pre-pandemic average. Overall, with migration from abroad factored in, London’s population is likely well above its pre-pandemic peak.
The capital has “become a magnet for people again,” the think tank said.
The trend is confirmed by rising rents, which reflect the continued demand to live in the capital.
Private rental prices in London account for almost a third of UK rental expenditure, the ONS found.
Big Challenges
The capital’s recovery from the pandemic and the “return to the norm” will mean a greater need for investment, said Centre for Cities.“The big challenges associated with London remain. London’s infrastructure is creaking under the weight of its population. Policymakers have to shake off any assumption that population changes mean questions over the housing shortage and infrastructure will solve themselves. Nor will smaller, less affluent places see huge influxes of professional workers with greater spending power,” said Mr. Carter.
Among the “big investment decisions” for the government are the Bakerloo Line extension and Crossrail 2 project. Plans to extend the Bakerloo line and improve access from southeast London to the centre remain under consideration by Transport for London. The Crossrail 2 project, which would take passengers from four destinations in Surrey to central London, was put on hold in October 2020.
Mr. Carter warned that delays in big infrastructure projects will “constrain London’s potential.”
With London’s population set for further increases, Centre for Cities said that housing affordability will depend on the rate of building.
Opposition lawmakers have been vocal on the housing recovery plan. Last October, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer announced plans to build 1.5 million homes, as well as new infrastructure to support communities.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has pledged to bring migration numbers down to “more sustainable” levels. By introducing tougher conditions for working and students visas, among other changes, the government wants to deliver the biggest reduction in net migration on record.
Immigration has been on the forefront of the Conservatives’ agenda ahead of the general election.
