A new report from the Fraser Institute casts doubt on claims that extreme weather events are becoming more common, arguing such assertions by governments and media outlets are not “iron-clad.”
The report warns that based on assertions that have not been proven true, governments have been enacting “ever more restrictive regulations” on consumers of energy products, which have imposed costs on Canada’s economy and its citizens’ standards of living.”
“Claims about extreme weather should not be used as the basis for committing to long-term regulatory regimes that will hurt current Canadian standards of living, and leave future generations worse off,” the report says.
The authors also raise concerns that world leaders are using “extraordinary claims” about the earth’s climate to justify actions that will lower standards of living, such as abandoning capitalism and eliminating fossil fuels. They say capitalism and fossil fuels made it possible for humans to shift from manual labour in agriculture, develop technologies leading to longer lifespans and reduced infant mortality, and democratic participation.
Analyzing Extreme Weather Event Claims
The report does not argue against the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) claims that the earth has been warming since the 1950s, calling the assessment “widely accepted to accurately reflect reality.” But it takes issue with claims that extreme weather events such as floods, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires have been occurring more frequently.
While the U.N. panel asserts medium confidence that there has been some increase in fire weather in “some regions” since 1950, the Fraser Institute report says data shows no clear trend in increasing frequency or intensity. It adds that in Canada, wildfires have been decreasing in number and size from the 1950s to the present.
When it comes to droughts, the Fraser Institute points out that the IPCC has “medium confidence” that numbers are increasing. The underlying evidence for such claims is “clearly mixed and inconsistent,” says the report, citing 2021 International Energy Agency data suggesting drought severity in Canada from 2000 to 2020 was only slightly above the global average.
While the IPCC says floods have “likely” increased since 1950, the report says trends show a “high regional variability and lack overall statistical significance of a decrease or an increase over the globe as a whole.” It also cites Canada’s Changing Climate Report in 2019, which found there did not appear to be “detectable trends in short-duration extreme precipitation in Canada for the country as a whole.”
As for hurricanes, tornadoes, and cyclones, the report acknowledges that the IPCC “suggests there is likely an increase in certain tropical cyclone characteristics.” But evidence that they are growing more frequent or are caused by human activities “either contradicts the IPCC’s narrative, or reveals no trends in the data,” says the report.
