Liberals and Tories Tied but Both Losing Support as NDP and Others Rise: 3 Polls

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (L) and Prime Minister Mark Carney shake hands before question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sept. 15, 2025. The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Three recent polls suggest Liberals and Tories are now neck-and-neck in voters’ intentions, but they’re both losing support as other smaller parties are gaining.

The polls were conducted as the parliamentary sitting came to an end, and was marked by the defections of Tory MPs and turmoil within the Liberal Party over the Ottawa-Alberta deal on energy.

A new poll by Liaison Strategies found 38 percent of Canadians would vote for the Liberals if an election were held today, representing a 6 percent decline since the 2025 federal election, while another 38 percent would vote for the Conservatives, marking a 3 percent decrease since the federal election.

Meanwhile, the poll indicated that support for the NDP, Bloc Québécois, Green Party, and People’s Party of Canada (PPC) has grown.

Twelve percent of voters surveyed indicated that if an election were held today they would support the NDP, up 6 percent, while 7 percent said they would support the Bloc Québécois, up 1 percent. Three percent indicated support for the Green Party, representing an increase of 2 percent, and 2 percent said they would back the PPC, up 1 percent.

The survey polled 1,000 Canadians using interactive voice response from Dec. 19 to 21.

Similarly, a new Nanos poll indicated 36 percent of Canadian voters would support the Liberals and another 36 percent would support the Tories, representing an 8 percent decrease for the Liberals and a 5 percent decline for the Tories.

The Nanos poll also suggests support for the NDP and other parties has grown, with 11 percent saying they would vote for the NDP, 7 percent would support the Bloc, 4 percent would back the Greens, and 3 percent would vote for the PPC. This represents a 5 percent increase in support for the NDP since the federal election, a 1 percent increase for the Bloc, a 4 percent increase for the Greens, and a 2 percent increase for the PPC.

The poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians online and by telephone, and was conducted on Dec. 19.

A third poll by Innovative Research found a similar ratio of support by Canadian voters across the parties. Thirty-nine percent of Canadians said they would vote for the Liberals, down 5 percent, while another 39 percent said they would support the Conservatives, down 2 percent.

Ten percent of Canadian voters indicated support for the NDP, up 4 percent, while 7 percent said they support the Bloc, an increase of 1 percent. Meanwhile, 4 percent of Canadians expressed support for the Green Party, up 3 percent, and 2 percent said they support other parties, which were not specified in the polling results.

The Innovative Research poll was conducted from Dec. 4 to Dec. 14, and surveyed 1,313 Canadians online.

An Abacus Data poll published on Dec. 14 indicated equal support among Canadian voters for the Liberals and Conservatives at 41 percent, but didn’t indicate that the parties had lost support. Instead, the poll found there had been no change among Liberal supporters, while support for the Tories had grown by 1 percent.

The polls were conducted after recent major events in politics, including some dissent among the Liberals after the federal government signed an energy agreement with Alberta, and after recent floor-crossings by Conservative MPs to the Liberal Party.