Japan’s Next Prime Minister Is Likely to Pursue a Balanced International Policy, Experts Say

Japan’s Next Prime Minister Is Likely to Pursue a Balanced International Policy, Experts Say
Shigeru Ishiba, the newly elected leader of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), looks on during a press conference in Tokyo, on Sept 27, 2024. Kim Kyung/pool photo via AP
Olivia Li
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Shigeru Ishiba, a former defense minister who is set to become Japan’s next prime minister, will likely pursue a balanced international policy while pursuing a more assertive regional alliance against China, according to experts.

They also said that Ishiba’s fifth and successful attempt at leading the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the country shows Japanese politicians’ demand for a middle-of-the-road leader.

Nine candidates competed in the latest LDP presidency election, which ended on Sept. 27.

Ishiba finished second in the first round and won the run-off, held if no candidate won a majority. Shinjiro Koizumi, a former environment minister and the leader in the polls, finished third and didn’t make it to the run-off. Sanae Takaichi, the female economic security minister seen as the successor to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a leader hawkish to China, lost to Ishiba in the run-off despite coming in first during the first round.

Akio Yaita, a Japanese journalist and director of the Taipei branch of the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun, told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s win suggests his moderate foreign policy approach resonated with voters.

With Japan’s House of Representatives election coming up, Yaita said Ishiba’s centrist stance could attract some middle-ground voters in the Diet and make it easier for the LDP to form a ruling coalition again.

Szu-shen Ho, director of the Center of Japan and East Asia Studies at Fu Jen Catholic University in Taiwan, also told The Epoch Times that Ishiba’s moderate approach offers the LDP a better way to broaden its support base among lawmakers.

According to Yaita, Ishiba’s advocacy of a stronger defense should not be misconstrued as military expansionism.

Ishiba has long advocated the creation of an “Asian NATO”—an alliance with Australia and South Korea, while also extending Japan’s security ties with European nations such as the UK and France—to strengthen Japan’s security system and maintain peace in the region.

“Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow. Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defense system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defense,” he wrote in a paper to the Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute, published on Sept. 18.
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