In-Depth: Why Alberta’s Population Is Surging

The Bow River flows through downtown Calgary in a file photo. The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh

EDMONTON—A number of reasons have helped Alberta regain its status as a top province for migration from across Canada, and it’s not just because housing prices are off the charts in the nation’s major cities elsewhere.

For decades since the early 1990s, largely due to its oil and gas industry, Alberta has attracted job-seekers from every other province in Canada.

In late 2009, following the 2008–09 recession, however, and again during a recession spanning 2014–16, net population outflow from the province was at its worst. But that trend is now on the reverse.

Kevin McQuillan, a sociology professor at the University of Calgary, said Alberta has gone very quickly “from losing people to other provinces to suddenly attracting many.”

He told The Epoch Times that some people who may have left the province three or four years ago are now moving back.

“I think housing is undoubtedly an important factor. Calgary and Edmonton are still much more affordable than Vancouver or Toronto or even smaller Ontario cities like London and Kitchener-Waterloo,” Mr. McQuillan said.

People have the idea that Alberta presents “more opportunity,” he said.

“With the recent strength in the energy area and much discussion of development in renewable energy, there is a feeling that the province is on the move. It will be important to see if this is sustained. As prices rise here, will people still see it as a good idea to come to the province?”

Professor and economist Jack Mintz, with the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, agrees that housing prices are playing a significant role in Alberta’s historic population growth.

Mr. Mintz said the “cheaper housing prices” in the province explains some of the data showing that Ontario and B.C. are accounting for a significant portion of Alberta’s net migration.

He said Alberta also offers better infrastructure in health care and education in some cases in comparison to other provinces. “I know someone who went to Alberta [for] better support for autism than [in] Ontario, for example,” he said.

Mr. Mintz points to jobs and the strength of the economy as well as the opportunities Alberta offers as one component, while lower taxes is another factor that could be influencing historic growth numbers for the province.

‘High Quality of Life’

Herbert Northcott, a sociology professor emeritus at the University of Alberta, said interprovincial migration to and from Alberta has tended to be “quite volatile, rising and falling over the years.”

“Alberta is attracting interprovincial migrants because it offers a high quality of life at a relatively low cost, compared to the high cost of living/housing in Toronto or Vancouver,” Mr. Northcott told The Epoch Times.

He says the influx of residents from other provinces is being driven primarily by lifestyle choices and a lower cost of living and housing prices, in addition to employment opportunities.

“Compared to Manitoba and Saskatchewan, for example, where the cost of living is relatively low, Alberta has access to the mountains and no provincial sales tax, highlighting lifestyle opportunities,” he said.

The Alberta government says the answer lies in the province’s strong economy.

“Alberta is the economic and job creation engine of Canada, with a young, skilled and vibrant workforce and diversifying economy built on strong, business-friendly policies that continue to attract job-creating investment,” Andrea Smith, press secretary for the Minister of Jobs, Economy and Trade, told The Epoch Times in a previous interview.

“Alberta leads the country in job creation in high-earning positions across different sectors of our economy. In turn, we are making life more affordable for all people living in Alberta.”

The province implemented a freeze on provincial fuel taxes in 2022 and carried that over with the new Danielle Smith government in 2023, making Alberta’s gas prices the lowest in the country. Alberta has an unemployment rate of 5.7 percent, placing it in the middle of the pack among the provinces and slightly above the September 2023 national rate of 5.5 percent.

Statistics Canada population estimates released Sept. 27 indicate Alberta has set a new record for annual net growth from interprovincial migration—people relocating to the province from other parts of Canada.

The province had an overall population gain of 4.1 percent between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, representing more than 184,000 newcomers living there in the last year. Alberta now have an estimated population of 4.7 million.

The latest numbers are the largest on record in the national statistical office’s 52 years of collecting population data since being renamed Statistics Canada in 1971. Only once, from 1980 to 1981, have more Canadians moved to Alberta in a single year.

‘Relatively Affordable Housing’

The latest Alberta Economic Outlook report from ATB Financial (ATB), the provincial Crown corporation formerly known as Alberta Treasury Branches, suggests Alberta is “ahead of the crowd,” which the bank attributes to the province’s affordable housing and strong job performance.

Year-to-date job growth is 3.5 percent—well above the national average of 2.4 percent, said the report dated Sept. 19.

“It’s evident that Alberta’s economy has weathered the inflation storm better than most,” the report said, noting the province has also outpaced national employment growth year-over-year for 17 straight months. ATB also anticipates that the energy industry is on pace for its second-highest level of annual exports on record.

The ATB report said more than three-quarters of incoming population from other provinces came from Ontario and B.C. over the last four quarters of data.

“While Alberta’s strong job performance has helped, another major draw is relatively affordable housing,” it said, noting that prices and rents are higher on average in those two provinces compared to Alberta.

“Rising energy investment and production is a major factor driving Alberta’s real GDP growth ahead of the national average this year and next,” said ATB.

According to statistics released by the Alberta government on July 5, the population expanded by the highest annual growth rate since 1981, and has seen a significant increase from the year 2021–2022, when the population expanded by 1.8 percent.

Alberta’s population expanded by 50,061 residents (or 1.1 percent) over the second quarter of 2023, or 1.1 percent, representing the highest second-quarter growth rate on record in the current data series, which began in 1971.

Alberta said in its population projections that by 2051, the province will add about 2.6 million people, for a population of roughly 7.1 million. The province expects an average annual growth of 1.5 percent per year, with 55 percent attributed to international migration, 28 percent as a result of natural increase, and 17 percent from interprovincial migration.