A U.S. airbase in Erbil, northern Iraq, was struck by a drone fired by Kata'ib Hezbollah (KH), an Iran-affiliated terrorist group, on Dec. 25, 2023. The attack, which resulted in three U.S. casualties, led to retaliatory airstrikes on the same day.
Amid the ongoing Israel–Hamas conflict, the attack was one more example of the back-and-forth clash between the United States and anti-Israel Islamist militias and terrorist organizations in the region—a clash that has not only further complicated U.S–Iran relations, but has also complicated the geopolitical stakes of various countries in the region, according to Middle East geopolitics experts.
“The Israel–Hamas war has further intensified the stakes in navigating relations between Tehran and Washington,” NishaKant Ojha, a counterterrorism adviser to the governments of Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, and the United Arab Emirates, told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Ojha said Iran’s strategy is to ensure that attacks by its militias and affiliated terrorist groups in the neighboring countries remain below a certain threshold. This would be just enough to provoke a major U.S. response, diverting attention from the Israel–Hamas conflict and possibly influencing a softened U.S. stance toward Hamas, he said. However, it would avoid a full-fledged war.
The region’s high strategic value for the United States is making Washington reluctant to escalate the conflict, Mr. Ojha said. Baghdad relies on U.S. sanctions waivers for purchasing electricity from Iran, and since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq’s foreign currency reserves have been held in the U.S. Federal Reserve. This gives the United States considerable control over Iraq’s dollar supply.
“The recent attack has placed Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in a very delicate situation, given his 2022 ascent to power with the support of Iranian-backed parties associated with militias conducting attacks on U.S. bases. The geopolitical landscape indicates a strategic crisis for him,” Mr. Ojha said.
As regional tensions escalate, U.S. airstrikes have continued. On Jan. 4, a U.S. airstrike killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saeedi, popularly known as “Abu Taqwa,” the head of an Iran-linked, Iraqi militia called the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (HaN). HaN is part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, a coalition of some 40 militias with close links to Iran. PMF is nominally under the control of the Iraqi military.
A U.S. defense official said that Abu Taqwa was targeted because he was actively involved in attacks on U.S. personnel.
The Threat of a 2nd Front
While the Israel–Hamas conflict is ongoing, Iran-backed attacks on Israel threaten to open a second front against Israel and further destabilize Iraq, where many anti-U.S. militias backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are based, experts said.“The potential escalation between Israel and Hezbollah or other Iran-backed entities could serve as a significant secondary front amid the current Israel–Hamas conflict,” Mr. Ojha said.
Both Iran and Iraq have consistently emphasized that Iraq must not become a destabilizing arena, jeopardizing the government of Mr. al-Sudani, he said.
Mr. al-Sudani announced on Dec. 28, 2023, that his administration will work to end the presence of U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq, which “include security advisers who support the security forces in the areas of training, advice, and intelligence cooperation.” The Iraqi leader made the comments in the presence of his Spanish counterpart, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who was on a bilateral visit to the country.
Spain is part of the U.S.-led international coalition forces in Baghdad. The two leaders discussed establishing a strategic partnership and cooperation in the fields of security, culture, environment, and sustainable development.
According to Mr. Ojha, Iraq’s national interests lie in building military capacity, reviving its energy sector, meeting domestic water and energy demands, and fostering trade and investment.
“To achieve these goals, Baghdad is inclined toward maintaining a centrist foreign policy, actively pursuing strategic and economic relations with various regional and global partners, while striving to remain neutral amid the current situation and control incidents like the recent drone attack,” he said.
For Iraq to remain neutral, Mr. Ojha said that it must, through various means, actively control incidents such as the recent drone attack on U.S. forces.
“The Biden administration is strategically trying to prevent the Israel–Hamas conflict from escalating into a broader regional war, avoiding the opening of new fronts for Israeli fighting or direct U.S. involvement,” he said.
However, Mr. Ojha says the U.S. strike that killed Abu Taqwa may upset the balance between Washington and Baghdad. While most of the time such attacks are coordinated between the two countries, the Jan. 4 attack wasn’t, he said.
“[It] may give a negative message to Iraqi authorities, and they may anticipate it as a clear violation of Iraqi sovereignty,” Mr. Ojha said.
Calls for a Cease-Fire; Shifting Regional Alliances
As the Israel–Hamas conflict continues, and clashes between the United States and regional militias continue, the debate on a cease-fire has become louder. The geopolitical dynamics within the Baghdad–Ankara–Erbil triangle have also experienced significant shifts, complicating geopolitics in the region.Joseph Kechichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, told The Epoch Times in an email that while Washington has a right to protect U.S. forces, he feels the attacks may not diminish or deter anti-U.S. elements from carrying out their deeds.
“To be sure, while there are Iran-aligned groups in Iraq and Syria that oppose Israel’s campaign in Gaza and hold the United States partly responsible for the ongoing assaults on Hamas guerrillas, an increasingly large number of Iraqis, Syrians, Lebanese, and others believe that the American-backed Israeli-assaults on Palestinian civilians are unwarranted, illegitimate, and morally unjustifiable,” he wrote.
The Riyadh-based author of several books on Saudi Arabia—including “Legal and Political Reforms in Saudi Arabia,” “Power and Succession in the Arab Monarchies,” and “The Just Prince: A Manual of Leadership”—predicted that attacks on the United States will continue unless a cease-fire is “brokered, and negotiations are open to help resolve the conflict, perhaps through a two-state solution.”
“Because there looks [as if] no hope exists for negotiations to help resolve lingering concerns, we should expect additional attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere throughout the region,” Mr. Kechichian wrote.
However, Mr. Ojha says the attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria aren’t connected to the Israel–Hamas war that started on Oct. 7, 2023. An advanced HaN drone attack in Kharab al-Jir/Rmelan killed one American in March 2023, according to The Washington Institute.
“This type of incident also happened in 2020 in Baghdad, [carried out] by the same [militia] group,” Mr. Ojha said.
In the current geopolitical situation, it’s also important to understand the shift in the dynamics between Baghdad, Ankara, and Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, he said. Relations between Baghdad and Erbil have a long history of continuing conflict.
According to Mr. Ojha, since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Turkey’s relationship with Iraq has undergone substantial transformations. The nature of Turkish–Iraqi relations has evolved from a collaborative approach between Ankara and Baghdad to contain Erbil, to a scenario where Ankara and Erbil collaborate to limit Baghdad’s influence.
“The perception has shifted from viewing Iraq’s Kurds as a major threat to considering them as friends and allies, while concurrently regarding the Shia government in Baghdad as a potentially adversarial power,” Mr. Ojha said. The shifting alliances are significant because the situation deepens rifts and enables Turkey to interfere in the U.S.–Iraq relationship.
“Turkey and Iran work together,” he said, referring to Turkey’s backing of Iran-supported, anti-U.S. militias.
