IN-DEPTH: As Iran and Pakistan Trade Strikes, Experts Warn of Growing Destabilization in West Asia

The volatile situation is complicated by Pakistan and Iran’s border mistrust, the Israeli–Hamas conflict, and China’s investment in the region.

Paramilitary soldiers in front of a closed gate of Pakistan's border post, after Pakistan sealed its border with Iran as a preventive measure following the coronavirus outbreak, at the border post in Taftan, Pakistan, on Feb. 25, 2020. Naseer Ahmed/Reuters

Iranian missiles hit the terror bases of the Jaish al-Adl militant group inside Pakistan on Tuesday. Pakistan retaliated by striking inside Iranian territory early Thursday, raising concerns of a major inflammation of conflict in West Asia.

Experts have called the attacks geopolitical messaging from Iran threatening a wider weakening of regional security amidst the Israel-Hamas conflict.

“Iran is delivering a message—that if Israel strikes they can do a lot of regional destabilization,” said Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

However, Mr. Iyer-Mitra termed it a “panic message” and “not coherent,” and questioned who the message was directed toward. Iran also attacked what it termed an Israel spy base near the U.S. consulate in Erbil in northern Iraq, as well as “anti-Iran terror groups in Syria” on Monday. This was followed by the attack inside Pakistan in which two children were killed and three were injured, according to media reports.

“So this is mostly a messaging gambit. I think it’s very easy to do in a sense because they don’t want to use Hezbollah to hit Israel directly,” said Mr. Iyer-Mitra. “It’s easy for them to retaliate against neighbors knowing they can manage escalation as opposed to using Hezbollah to attack Israel knowing full well that the Israeli retaliation will be unmanageable.”

Hamid Behrami, a Scotland-based Middle East expert of Iranian origin, told The Epoch Times that Iran’s recent attacks against Erbil, Syria, and Pakistan are linked to its current perception of threat to its national security and thus to deterrence, in this context.

“Iran was almost silent in the last three months [of the Gaza war]. The Kerman attack pushed Tehran to act in order to balance deterrence. However, Jaish-al Adl operations in Iran and IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] response have a long history and can not be connected to the Hamas–Israel conflict. Threatening events and deterrence pushed Iran to do all three attacks at the same time,” said Mr. Behrami.

Iran’s southeastern city of Kerman was rattled with suicide bombings on Jan. 3, killing 100 people and injuring 284. Tehran vowed revenge for the attack, for which Islamic State claimed responsibility.

Bystanders react after an explosion in Kerman, Iran, on Jan. 3, 2024. Mahdi Karbakhsh Ravari/AP Photo

Who Is Retaliating Against Whom?

Pakistan and Iran have a decade-long history of border mistrust and launching attacks against each other. Despite complex regional geopolitics vis-a-vis the Israel-Hamas conflict, experts believe the recent back-and-forth attacks are unique to Pakistan–Iran relations.

Kiyya Baloch, a freelance journalist tracking down violence in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, spoke to a Pakistani family that experienced the Iranian attack. He wrote in a message on X on Wednesday that there were two Iranian attacks—not just one as widely reported by the media. According to his sources, there were 12 injured including the two widely reported deaths.

“Many people are wondering if yesterday’s attack inside Pakistan is a response to last month’s terrible bombings in Iran. Apparently no!” said Mr. Baloch.

“This could be a retaliation for the 11 Iranian security personnel killed in an attack on a police station in Sistan-Baluchestan on Dec. 14,” he said. Iran has owned the attacks inside Pakistan and justified them by saying they targeted Iranian terrorists on Pakistani soil, not Pakistani terrorists.

Mr. Baloch recalled that the Iranian military fired its first missile inside a target in Kolaho, a remote village inside the Turbat region of Pakistan, in November 2013. Tuesday’s targets were inside Panjgur, a district which had seen similar attacks by Iran earlier.

The Norway-based journalist ascertained that Iran targeted houses belonging to Jaish al-Adl members, using suicide drones and missiles. Jaish al-Adl—the Army of Justice—is a Sunni militant, anti-Iranian group seeking independence from Iran’s eastern Sistan, and Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan provinces. It first surfaced in 2012; its members are from the ethnic Baloch community on both sides of the border and have long been a cause of suspicion between the two neighbors.

In an exclusive interview, Mr. Baloch told The Epoch Times that Iran has long accused Pakistan of providing shelter to anti-Iran groups and has violated Pakistan’s airspace on multiple occasions.

“Pakistan has consistently exercised restraint. However, the dynamics changed this time, as Iran is currently engaged in a conflict with Israel in Palestine, drawing significant international attention. When Iran attacked Pakistan this time, the incident received notable coverage in the Western press—additionally, internal pressure mounted on the Pakistan army from its own public,” said Mr. Baloch, adding that the Western media coverage and internal pressure were behind Pakistan’s retaliation.

Boats at the Gwadar port, in the Balochistan province of Pakistan, near the Iranian border, on the Arabian Sea. China Overseas Ports Holding Company has leased the port until 2059 and has already started expanding it, as part of its Belt and Road initiative. J. Patrick Fischer/CC BY-SA

Diverting Attention

However, one expert cautions against hyping the Iran–Pakistan conflict, citing greater economic, cultural, and strategic ties between the two neighbors. In light of this, he does not foresee long-term damage to bilateral relations between the two countries.

NishaKant Ojha, a counterterrorism adviser to the governments of Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, and the United Arab Emirates, told The Epoch Times that the situation is a mutually corrective measure for Pakistan and Iran, and helps the two neighbors to build a global image against terrorism. It also helps them to divert global attention from the Israel–Hamas conflict.

“Iran and Pakistan were progressing towards normalization, with strengthened economic cooperation. Pakistan’s response to the Iran attack, involving precise military strikes in the Siestan-o-Baluchistan province, seems more like a calculated move than a serious attack,” said Mr. Ojha.

Pakistan and Iran share over 565 miles of border separating Islamabad’s province of Balochistan from the southern Iranian province of Siestan-o-Baluchistan. The two neighbors forged a $5 billion, 5-year trade collaboration plan with each other last year.

Mr. Ojha said that internal relations between Iran and Pakistan are currently proceeding at a normal pace, suggesting that the recent incident may not significantly impact them strategically or politically.

Mr. Baloch said Pakistan retaliated, recognizing that the retaliation could draw international support, especially from the West, for its fight against terrorism.

“It also aimed to rebuild the image of the Pakistani army, which has faced criticism from the public for political interference,” said Mr. Baloch.

Chinese Investments

Incidentally, Chinese footprints on both sides of the restless Pakistan–Iran border are substantial. Experts thus predict Chinese involvement in the geopolitical state of affairs on both sides.

Chinese spokesperson Mao Ning called for restraint from both Iran and Pakistan after Tuesday’s attack. “We call on the two sides to avoid actions that escalate the tension and jointly keep the region peaceful and stable,” said Ms. Mao.

Balochistan is the largest of the four provinces of Pakistan. It is the subject of massive investments by the Chinese, whose engineers have also increasingly become targets of Baloch insurgents who reside on both sides of the border. On the other hand, Siestan-o-Baluchistan is Iran’s largest province. Placed strategically, it shares a coastal border with the sea of Oman and territorial borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Iran signed several agreements with Beijing during Xi Jinping’s 2016 visit to Tehran. Those included the development of an industrial town in a port in Siestan-o-Baluchistan. Thus Mr. Baloch said any form of escalation or insecurity in the region, where China has invested a significant amount of money, is not in its favor.

“China is already growing anxious about the security conditions in Pakistan, and it has expressed concern about Pakistan’s tensions with its southern neighbor, Afghanistan. To safeguard its flagship Belt and Road Initiative project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China will likely intervene to defuse tensions,” he said.

Iran is demographically a majority Shia nation, while Pakistan is a majority Sunni population. According to Mr. Baloch, the potential for spillover into a sectarian or faith-based war, particularly along Shia and Sunni lines, is a concern in the tensions between Iran and Pakistan.

“Given its strategic interests and potential destabilization, China would actively work to prevent such a scenario. Preserving regional stability aligns with China’s broader goals, and it will strive to ensure the security of its regional investments and projects,” he said.

Mr. Iyer-Mitra, however, cautioned that the Chinese are driven by self-interest, and in any geopolitical situation their focus will be  on self-preservation.

“The Chinese invest heavily in everything—peace and war. If their peacetime investment suffers a loss, they'll sell weapons to everyone and fleece them,” he said.