YAOUNDE, CAMEROON—The stage has now been set for the disintegration of the French-backed G5 Sahel regional force set up to tackle jihadism and other challenges in West Africa.
The two remaining members of the alliance–Chad and Mauritania–said on Dec. 6 that they were paving the way for the dissolution of the anti-jihadist grouping after the other three founding countries left.
A joint statement from the military-led governments of Burkina Faso and Niger criticized the G5 force for failing to make the Sahel region safer. They claimed that the anti-jihadist force undermined the two African nations’ desire for greater “independence and dignity” and was serving foreign interests instead.
In a veiled reference to former colonial power France, Burkina Faso and Niger stated that the G5 Sahel can’t serve “foreign interests” to the detriment of its people, “and even less the dictates of any power in the name of a partnership that treats them like children, denying the sovereignty of our peoples.”
The G5 Sahel was founded in 2014 as a regional, intergovernmental organization to provide an institutional framework to promote development and security within its five member countries of Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.
As part of its security mandate, the G5 Sahel created the Joint Task Force in 2017 to strengthen the fight against threats to peace and security and to bolster development. Its main objectives were to collect, process, exploit, and share criminal information among a diverse range of actors in a complex environment.
From G5 Sahel to Alliance of Sahel States
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in September announced a new defense pact called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The countries pledged to come to each other’s aid in defense of their territorial integrity, both from internal and external aggression. However, observers see the move as an “alliance of convenience” to mask their fear of uncertainty in a climate of heightened tension with France.“When it started its operations, the activity of Salafi-Jihadist organizations in the region threatened the security of certain countries such as Niger and even the political stability of others such as Mali,” Mr. Matan told The Epoch Times.
“As a result, the conflict in the Sahel became an attrition war that is continuing to this day. The G5 disintegration will likely lead to a decline of efficient and coordinated anti-terror operations.”
However, Mr. Matan said he believes that the AES defense pact is intended more as a “show of force” to prevent foreign intervention from other countries than an instrument to tackle violent extremism, especially Salafi-Jihadist organizations that operate in the Sahel region.
“The current defense pact is lacking the operational and logistical resources the G5 Sahel had and is required in order to efficiently tackle the Salafi-Jihadist activity,” Mr. Matan said.
“As for the question of the prevention of involvement of non-African countries such as France, in my opinion, a direct intervention (i.e., ‘boots on the ground’) is unlikely. I believe France and other Western powers are not eager to be drawn back to the Sahelian theater but may support a possible intervention of ECOWAS countries/forces.”
“It failed to tackle the political causes of the jihadist threat,” he told The Epoch Times.
“Since the removal of international forces (except Wagner) and the breakup of the G5, the Islamist militant and insurrectionary groups appear to be making more progress rather than less, despite the apparent recapture of Kidal by the Malian military.”
Consequently, Mr. Westcott said he views the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States–and the effective abolition of the G5 Sahel–as an assertion of the “defense autonomy” of the three military-led governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso even if the purpose of this new defense alliance isn’t yet clear.
“It may be to fight terrorism in the three countries, in which case it will be less effective without the other two members of the G5 Sahel,” he told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Westcott posits that the new defense alliance may also be to defend the military-led governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso against “external threats” from other ECOWAS members, or other international actors.
“A military threat from France to any of them is extremely unlikely but is a convenient way for the three military governments to claim legitimacy. Or it may be a prelude to a new military alliance with Russia. Time will tell,” he said.
He said that the dissolution of G5 Sahel and its replacement by the Alliance of Sahel States is directed to “diminish the influence” of France and the West as a whole in the region.
“Since the Malian, Burkinabe, and Niger coups had already led to the end of Operation Barkhane, the end of MINUSMA, and now the dissolution of the G5 Sahel, the new regimes are creating a power and security vacuum that will be eagerly exploited by external actors like, for example, Russia (Wagner Group and other shadowy contractors), China (economic influence), but especially jihadi groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda,” Mr. Van Ostaeyen told The Epoch Times.
In dissolving all of these multinational corporations, these countries will “isolate themselves more” and will probably be more targeted by groups including ISIS and al-Qaeda, he said.
“This is already happening,” Mr. Van Ostaeyen said.
“The G5 provided a capable and experienced counterterrorism collective of intelligence and military entities. However, this was simply not enough to contain the growth of Islamist militancy throughout the region,” he told The Epoch Times.
Sahelian states are now looking to increase information sharing and find stabilized footing given the shared transnational nature of threats from the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, Mr. Webber said.
“But it is unclear if they can improve the security situation, as there has been little evidence of progress thus far,” he said.
“Moscow has steadily gained influence through security and economic agreements with the Sahel states.
“The growth of Russia’s private military company footprint to protect allied governments and support their campaigns against insurgent groups is a notable indication of this.”
On the other hand, Paris won’t give up its influence in the region willingly and without tremendous effort to slow or reverse the trend of such states pivoting away from France, Mr. Webber said.
Power Interplay Between West, Russia
Military leaders headed by Capt. Ibrahim Traore seized power in Burkina Faso in September 2022, vowing to improve security after years of jihadist attacks by groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS.Relations with France quickly broke down, with the Traore government ordering French forces that had been helping the underequipped Burkinabe army to leave the country in February.
The withdrawal applied to 2,400 French troops in Mali and a smaller European force of several hundred that was set up in 2020 to lessen the burden on French forces.
However, France will likely continue its involvement in West Africa despite the recent withdrawal from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, Mr. Matan said.
“The main reason is that other countries still value the French presence and aid,” he told The Epoch Times. “Past experience shows that the countries in the region are unlikely to handle the task of fighting the Salafi-Jihadist threat on their own.
“Aid from countries such as France or the [United States] is usually imperative in this effort. Countries such as Ivory Coast and Togo still prefer the aid of ‘Western’ countries in this effort.”
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, meanwhile, have turned to Russia to fill the vacuum left by France. Mr. Matan said that Russia is likely to stay in this role in the “foreseeable future” and as long as those countries are ruled by military regimes or juntas.
“This cooperation serves both sides, as Russia needs diplomatic support during its war with Ukraine, and the military regimes of the three Sahel countries need logistical and diplomatic support in order to survive,” he said.
Extremist Violence Spreads Southward
There are fears that the disintegration of G5 Sahel and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States mutual defense pact signal a complete end to France’s neo-colonial influence and relevance in the region.Mr. Westcott said that France isn’t a solo actor in West Africa. At present, he maintains, many of the countries of West Africa, particularly those on the coast, have a “broadly ‘Western’ orientation.”
“They subscribe to democratic principles and market economies,” he told The Epoch Times. “Many do not want to lose this identity and will welcome support from international partners, such as the EU and its member states, that share this approach.
“Many of their governments, however, are under pressure to deliver more to their citizens, and this creates a challenge to which they need to respond if they are to survive.”
The foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger on Dec. 1 recommended the creation of a confederation as part of a long-term goal of uniting the West African neighbors in a federation. Their discussions aimed to flesh out the workings of the new alliance, with the ministers emphasizing the importance of diplomacy, defense, and development “to consolidate political and economic integration.”
However, Mr. Van Ostaeyen, who has been tracking jihadism in the Sahel, called the dreams of the Sahelian nations to form a confederation “utopian.”
‘Why Create an Alternative?’
“The current governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger seem primarily focused on their own survival, and are unwilling to compromise with others to ensure that,” he said.“If they genuinely wanted a regional confederation, ECOWAS exists to achieve that aim. Why create an alternative?”
The leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso seem to have decided to distance themselves from all earlier international alliances and partnerships, including ECOWAS, and are now making clear that punitive measures such as sanctions by any of them will have no influence on their policy-making, Mr. Westcott said.
“They seem to be defining their national interest not as the economic interest or welfare of their citizens, but [as] the security and autonomy of their regime,” he said.
Mr. Matan agreed, adding that a confederation in the Sahel may turn into a fiasco for three main reasons. One of these is that the populations of the three countries likely won’t welcome the idea.
“Of course, it can be done in a forceful way without a referendum, but it will not hold in the long term,” he told The Epoch Times.
“Second, the ethnic diversity inside those countries is already very challenging, and the lack of a cohesive population will hamper the task.”
Third, Salafi-Jihadist activity may be a catalyst for this effort, he said, “but those organizations will also try to prevent such a confederation and the establishment of united institutions and military forces.”
