French-Backed West African Regional Force on Brink of Collapse

More countries announce that they’re leaving the G5 Sahel security confederation amid rising jihadist attacks by al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Supporters of Capt. Ibrahim Traore wave a Russian flag in the streets of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, on Oct. 2, 2022. Sophie Garcia/AP Photo, File

YAOUNDE, CAMEROON—The stage has now been set for the disintegration of the French-backed G5 Sahel regional force set up to tackle jihadism and other challenges in West Africa.

The two remaining members of the alliance–Chad and Mauritania–said on Dec. 6 that they were paving the way for the dissolution of the anti-jihadist grouping after the other three founding countries left.

Burkina Faso and Niger early this month followed Mali in declaring their withdrawal from the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5 Sahel).

A joint statement from the military-led governments of Burkina Faso and Niger criticized the G5 force for failing to make the Sahel region safer. They claimed that the anti-jihadist force undermined the two African nations’ desire for greater “independence and dignity” and was serving foreign interests instead.

“Worse, the legitimate ambitions of our countries, of making the G5 Sahel a zone of security and development, are hindered by institutional red tape from a previous era, which convinces us that our process of independence and dignity is not compatible with G5 participation in its current form,” the joint statement reads.

In a veiled reference to former colonial power France, Burkina Faso and Niger stated that the G5 Sahel can’t serve “foreign interests” to the detriment of its people, “and even less the dictates of any power in the name of a partnership that treats them like children, denying the sovereignty of our peoples.”

In a joint statement following these declarations, Chad and Mauritania said they “take note and respect the sovereign decision” of Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the alliance and that they will implement “all necessary measures” in accord with the G5 founding convention, notably Article 20. That article states that the alliance can be dissolved at the request of at least three member states.

The G5 Sahel was founded in 2014 as a regional, intergovernmental organization to provide an institutional framework to promote development and security within its five member countries of Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.

As part of its security mandate, the G5 Sahel created the Joint Task Force in 2017 to strengthen the fight against threats to peace and security and to bolster development. Its main objectives were to collect, process, exploit, and share criminal information among a diverse range of actors in a complex environment.

It was structured around military and police components, which are connected through the national and regional security cooperation platforms. The Sahel region has experienced a devastating surge in terrorist attacks against civilian and military targets. Terrorist groups repeatedly are targeting communities and national institutions through coordinated attacks, taking advantage of porous and extensive borders.

From G5 Sahel to Alliance of Sahel States

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in September announced a new defense pact called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The countries pledged to come to each other’s aid in defense of their territorial integrity, both from internal and external aggression. However, observers see the move as an “alliance of convenience” to mask their fear of uncertainty in a climate of heightened tension with France.

Daniel Matan, researcher at the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Centre, an Israel-based research group that tracks ISIS and al-Qaeda, said the G5 Sahel force, along with the other multinational efforts, succeeded in halting the expansion of the Salafi-Jihadist activity in West Africa, “but failed to eradicate it.”

“When it started its operations, the activity of Salafi-Jihadist organizations in the region threatened the security of certain countries such as Niger and even the political stability of others such as Mali,” Mr. Matan told The Epoch Times.

“As a result, the conflict in the Sahel became an attrition war that is continuing to this day. The G5 disintegration will likely lead to a decline of efficient and coordinated anti-terror operations.”

However, Mr. Matan said he believes that the AES defense pact is intended more as a “show of force” to prevent foreign intervention from other countries than an instrument to tackle violent extremism, especially Salafi-Jihadist organizations that operate in the Sahel region.

He noted the recent threats of leaders from other countries in the region as part of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to intervene and reinstate the toppled president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum.

Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron attend a video summit with leaders of G5 Sahel countries after France's decision to reduce French anti-terror troops in West Africa, at the Élysée Presidential Palace in Paris on July 9, 2021. Stephane de Sakutin, Pool photo via AP

“The current defense pact is lacking the operational and logistical resources the G5 Sahel had and is required in order to efficiently tackle the Salafi-Jihadist activity,” Mr. Matan said.

“As for the question of the prevention of involvement of non-African countries such as France, in my opinion, a direct intervention (i.e., ‘boots on the ground’) is unlikely. I believe France and other Western powers are not eager to be drawn back to the Sahelian theater but may support a possible intervention of ECOWAS countries/forces.”

Nick Westcott, professor of practice in diplomacy at SOAS University of London–who served as the UK ambassador to Niger from 2008 to 2011—said the G5 was beginning to have some success against terrorism, though less than its members had hoped, and that it did remain dependent on the United States and France for some of its military capability.

“It failed to tackle the political causes of the jihadist threat,” he told The Epoch Times.

“Since the removal of international forces (except Wagner) and the breakup of the G5, the Islamist militant and insurrectionary groups appear to be making more progress rather than less, despite the apparent recapture of Kidal by the Malian military.”

Consequently, Mr. Westcott said he views the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States–and the effective abolition of the G5 Sahel–as an assertion of the “defense autonomy” of the three military-led governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso even if the purpose of this new defense alliance isn’t yet clear.

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) peacekeepers patrol the streets of Gao, eastern Mali, on Aug. 3, 2018. Seyllou/AFP via Getty Images

“It may be to fight terrorism in the three countries, in which case it will be less effective without the other two members of the G5 Sahel,” he told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Westcott posits that the new defense alliance may also be to defend the military-led governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso against “external threats” from other ECOWAS members, or other international actors.

“A military threat from France to any of them is extremely unlikely but is a convenient way for the three military governments to claim legitimacy. Or it may be a prelude to a new military alliance with Russia. Time will tell,” he said.

Pieter Van Ostaeyen, historian and Arabist at the Belgium-based Catholic research University of KU Leuven, agrees.

He said that the dissolution of G5 Sahel and its replacement by the Alliance of Sahel States is directed to “diminish the influence” of France and the West as a whole in the region.

“Since the Malian, Burkinabe, and Niger coups had already led to the end of Operation Barkhane, the end of MINUSMA, and now the dissolution of the G5 Sahel, the new regimes are creating a power and security vacuum that will be eagerly exploited by external actors like, for example, Russia (Wagner Group and other shadowy contractors), China (economic influence), but especially jihadi groups like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda,” Mr. Van Ostaeyen told The Epoch Times.

In dissolving all of these multinational corporations, these countries will “isolate themselves more” and will probably be more targeted by groups including ISIS and al-Qaeda, he said.

“This is already happening,” Mr. Van Ostaeyen said.

Lucas Webber, co-founder of the Militant Wire research network, describes the expansion of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Sahel as a “serious security issue” that’s being leveraged to justify military coups and geopolitical realignments.

“The G5 provided a capable and experienced counterterrorism collective of intelligence and military entities. However, this was simply not enough to contain the growth of Islamist militancy throughout the region,” he told The Epoch Times.

Sahelian states are now looking to increase information sharing and find stabilized footing given the shared transnational nature of threats from the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, Mr. Webber said.

“But it is unclear if they can improve the security situation, as there has been little evidence of progress thus far,” he said.

“Moscow has steadily gained influence through security and economic agreements with the Sahel states.

“The growth of Russia’s private military company footprint to protect allied governments and support their campaigns against insurgent groups is a notable indication of this.”

On the other hand, Paris won’t give up its influence in the region willingly and without tremendous effort to slow or reverse the trend of such states pivoting away from France, Mr. Webber said.

“The shift in geopolitical orientation runs top to bottom from local/regional grievances and political power plays to intensifying competition between the West and Russia,” he said.

Power Interplay Between West, Russia

Military leaders headed by Capt. Ibrahim Traore seized power in Burkina Faso in September 2022, vowing to improve security after years of jihadist attacks by groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Relations with France quickly broke down, with the Traore government ordering French forces that had been helping the underequipped Burkinabe army to leave the country in February.

More than 17,000 people have died in attacks in Burkina Faso since 2015, according to an NGO monitor called the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, and 2 million people have been uprooted by the violence.

France has also begun to withdraw its 1,500 troops from Niger following demands by the military rulers who ousted Mr. Bazoum in July. In February 2022, France and allied nations announced that they were withdrawing troops from Mali because of a breakdown in relations with the ruling junta.

The withdrawal applied to 2,400 French troops in Mali and a smaller European force of several hundred that was set up in 2020 to lessen the burden on French forces.

However, France will likely continue its involvement in West Africa despite the recent withdrawal from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, Mr. Matan said.

“The main reason is that other countries still value the French presence and aid,” he told The Epoch Times. “Past experience shows that the countries in the region are unlikely to handle the task of fighting the Salafi-Jihadist threat on their own.

“Aid from countries such as France or the [United States] is usually imperative in this effort. Countries such as Ivory Coast and Togo still prefer the aid of ‘Western’ countries in this effort.”

Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, meanwhile, have turned to Russia to fill the vacuum left by France. Mr. Matan said that Russia is likely to stay in this role in the “foreseeable future” and as long as those countries are ruled by military regimes or juntas.

“This cooperation serves both sides, as Russia needs diplomatic support during its war with Ukraine, and the military regimes of the three Sahel countries need logistical and diplomatic support in order to survive,” he said.

“This, however, may change. Countries such as the [United States] or European countries such as France didn’t hesitate to support undemocratic regimes in the past when it coincided with their diplomatic and economic interests.”

Extremist Violence Spreads Southward

There are fears that the disintegration of G5 Sahel and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States mutual defense pact signal a complete end to France’s neo-colonial influence and relevance in the region.

The activities of violent extremists in the Sahel over the years have begun to expand southward to coastal states that include Ivory Coast, Benin, Togo, and Ghana. There has also been speculation that France may redeem its influence by offering early support to these coastal states in order to maintain its faltering strategic relevance in West Africa.

Mr. Westcott said that France isn’t a solo actor in West Africa. At present, he maintains, many of the countries of West Africa, particularly those on the coast, have a “broadly ‘Western’ orientation.”

“They subscribe to democratic principles and market economies,” he told The Epoch Times. “Many do not want to lose this identity and will welcome support from international partners, such as the EU and its member states, that share this approach.

“Many of their governments, however, are under pressure to deliver more to their citizens, and this creates a challenge to which they need to respond if they are to survive.”

The foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger on Dec. 1 recommended the creation of a confederation as part of a long-term goal of uniting the West African neighbors in a federation. Their discussions aimed to flesh out the workings of the new alliance, with the ministers emphasizing the importance of diplomacy, defense, and development “to consolidate political and economic integration.”

However, Mr. Van Ostaeyen, who has been tracking jihadism in the Sahel, called the dreams of the Sahelian nations to form a confederation “utopian.”

Mr. Westcott said the idea of confederation looks more like “a solidarity pact” among military rulers than a genuine effort to enhance their countries’ development and security.

‘Why Create an Alternative?’

“The current governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger seem primarily focused on their own survival, and are unwilling to compromise with others to ensure that,” he said.

“If they genuinely wanted a regional confederation, ECOWAS exists to achieve that aim. Why create an alternative?”

The leaders of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso seem to have decided to distance themselves from all earlier international alliances and partnerships, including ECOWAS, and are now making clear that punitive measures such as sanctions by any of them will have no influence on their policy-making, Mr. Westcott said.

“They seem to be defining their national interest not as the economic interest or welfare of their citizens, but [as] the security and autonomy of their regime,” he said.

Mr. Matan agreed, adding that a confederation in the Sahel may turn into a fiasco for three main reasons. One of these is that the populations of the three countries likely won’t welcome the idea.

“Of course, it can be done in a forceful way without a referendum, but it will not hold in the long term,” he told The Epoch Times.

“Second, the ethnic diversity inside those countries is already very challenging, and the lack of a cohesive population will hamper the task.”

Third, Salafi-Jihadist activity may be a catalyst for this effort, he said, “but those organizations will also try to prevent such a confederation and the establishment of united institutions and military forces.”