Expected School Closures in Greece Highlight Deepening Demographic Crisis

The Greek government has introduced a 10-year strategy to confront a shrinking population and aging society.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (R) speaks with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte ahead of their meeting in Athens on Nov. 26, 2024. Photo by Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images

Hundreds of schools across Greece are set to close as the country faces a decline in its student population, according to new figures from the country’s Ministry of Education.

For the 2025–2026 academic year, the total number of students in primary, secondary, and vocational education is expected to fall to about 1.21 million. That represents a drop of more than 150,000 students from the 1.36 million enrolled in 2018–2019, ministry data show.

The figures, shared with The Epoch Times by a ministry press office employee, reflect a downward trend that worsens each year.

In primary schools alone, enrollment dropped to 506,700 students in 2024–2025 from 599,406 in 2018–2019. Numbers are projected to decline further to 487,462 in 2025–2026.

Secondary schools also show steep declines, falling to a projected 480,478 students from 529,984 over the same period.

In previous years, the number of school units in Greece showed slight fluctuations.

According to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, in the 2022–2023 academic year, compared with 2021–2022, primary schools declined by 0.2 percent, dropping to 4,838 units from 4,901.

Lower secondary schools recorded a 0.1 percent decrease, while upper secondary schools registered a modest 0.3 percent increase.

Experts warn that shrinking student numbers reflect a much broader demographic challenge, as Greece struggles with persistently low birth rates and an aging population.

Alexandra Tragaki, a professor of economic demography at Harokopio University in Athens, said the closures are a predictable outcome of decades of falling birth rates.

“It’s absolutely the normal consequence of falling birth rates for the last many decades,” she told The Epoch Times.

Eventually, the number of schools has to go down because the number of pupils is going down, she said.

Figures from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) confirm the trend: Births declined to 71,455 in 2023 from 83,756 in 2019.

Deaths have consistently outpaced births, rising to 128,101 in 2023 from 124,954 in 2019, after exceeding 140,000 during the COVID-19 pandemic years.

Fertility Rates

Greece’s fertility rate stands at about 1.3 children per woman, having dropped from 1.5 in 2021.

It is one of the lowest in the European Union and well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Eurostat puts the EU average at 1.38 in 2023, with Bulgaria, France, and Hungary at the higher end, and Malta, Spain, and Lithuania recording the lowest rates.

When asked about the underlying reasons for falling fertility, Tragaki said that while economic pressures play a role, cultural and lifestyle changes weigh just as heavily. She said today’s younger generations have grown up amid repeated crises, which has created an environment of insecurity.

“They feel quite insecure and pessimistic about the future,“ she said. ”When the situation is pessimistic, no one has children. In order to have children, you have to believe in the future.”

In her view, smaller families are also a natural reflection of modern living patterns rather than a lack of willingness among young people.

Tragaki said the problem in Greece is not only current fertility levels but the legacy of three decades of very low birth rates.

“The number of mothers-to-be today is really limited compared to the past,” she said.

Even if individual women had more children, the pool of potential mothers is simply too small, she said, warning that births are likely to keep falling.

“It will be a great success if we manage to stabilize it at about 70,000 births per year,” she said.

Aging Population

The country’s aging population compounds the challenge.

The aging ratio, or the number of people aged 65 and older relative to children aged zero to 14, stood at 155 in 2019 and climbed to 175.5 in 2023, according to ELSTAT.

Tragaki predicted that while headlines today focus on school closures, in a few years, the attention will shift to pensions, health care, and elderly poverty.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has described the demographic challenge as a “national threat” and a “ticking time bomb” for the country’s welfare and pension system.

In response, the government last year introduced a National Demographic Action Plan, a 10-year strategy running until 2035.

According to the Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family Affairs, the plan goes beyond simply trying to boost births. Its aim is to manage the long-term effects of an aging population on fiscal sustainability, competitiveness, and social cohesion.