While polls are showing an NDP lead in the Manitoba election, a lot will depend on which of the two main parties can get the vote out on Election Day Oct. 3.
According to Malcolm Bird, a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, the election is a close race.
“There’s only about 10 ridings in and around Winnipeg, in the suburbs of Winnipeg … that are being hotly, hotly contested,” Mr. Bird told The Epoch Times.
“I suspect the parties are putting their energies … into these 10 to 12 ridings that are going to determine the outcome of the election.”
When the election was called, the Progressive Conservatives, who’ve been in power since 2016, had 35 seats, the NDP had 18, and the Liberal Party had three. One former Conservative seat is currently vacant.
Recent polls are suggesting an NDP majority, but Mr. Bird said a lot depends on Election Day.
“Like I said, it’s going to come down to a handful of ridings, 10 or so, and they could be really close. So whoever has the best machine … getting their supporters out, will win,” he said.
Generally speaking, said Mr. Bird, the NDP does well in Winnipeg and the north, while the PC Party does well in rural Manitoba and parts of Winnipeg.
Provincial elections in Manitoba are almost unique in Canada in that the majority of the ridings, 32 of them, are in one city.
That means winning Winnipeg is crucial to electoral success. In this particular election, there are 57 ridings in contention, with 29 seats constituting a majority.
The province’s capital city has some 750,000 people in the city proper—834,000 if bedroom communities are included. That’s well over half of Manitoba’s 1.44 million people.
Mr. Bird said the election so far has been fairly low-key.
“I would call it a bit of a quiet, kind of sleepy-ish election campaign,” he said. “In general, I think that will benefit the Tories.”
He said the Conservatives have been emphasizing things like economic development.
“[PC Leader] Heather Stefanson is saying, we’ve done a reasonably good job over the last seven years, give us another mandate, slow and steady, trust us with the economy, that kind of thing,” he said.
The NDP, said Mr. Bird, has their focus on health care.
“The NDP talking about how they’re going to hire more health care workers, and open up new emergency wards, etc.,” said Mr. Bird. “The NDP’s view is … health care is broken and we’re going to fix it.”
But health care is not the only issue. The cost of living and crime are also significant issues, said Mr. Bird.
“I think your average voter is quite concerned about inflation, and eroding wages, and rising prices … this is really, really profound,” said Mr. Bird. “I think people are stressed about that.”
“The other big issue, particularly in the City of Winnipeg, is crime and drug use,” he said. “We’ve got a lot of problems here in Winnipeg … our downtown is not in a good way.”
“Crime, particularly violent crime … assaults and such, are quite significant,” said Mr. Bird.
Mr. Bird said while the Liberal Party only holds three seats, they may play a significant role in the 10 swing ridings around Winnipeg.
“There, the Liberal Party actually plays a really big role,” said Mr. Bird. So much so that NDP Leader Wab Kinew has been asking Liberal supporters to vote NDP.
“He’s saying, we’re the only people that can form government. So, if you’re thinking about voting Liberal, vote NDP.”
In Manitoba, advance voting is open until Sept. 30, with Election Day on Oct. 3
