Doctors Warn of Public Health Risks as Vaccine Rates Hit New Lows

The AMA said the falling immunisation rates illustrate the loss of trust in vaccines within a portion of the public since COVID-19.

An influenza vaccine in a file photograph. Mario Tama/Getty Images

As vaccination rates continue to fall across the board, the Australian Medical Association (AMA) has raised concerns about the risk of new outbreaks, which could increase pressure on hospitals and affect long-standing protection against serious diseases.

A new AMA report released on Dec. 1, “From coverage to concern: a policy analysis of Australia’s immunisation decline,” describes a country gradually losing the immunity that once kept serious illnesses at bay.

While acknowledging that Australia’s vaccination rates are high by global standards, the AMA said the falling figures indicate that a portion of the public has lost trust in vaccines and health authorities since COVID-19.

AMA President Dr. Danielle McMullen said a mix of misinformation, vaccine fatigue, and “anti-science sentiment” was eroding confidence and creating gaps large enough for disease to spread.

“Immunisation is the most successful and cost-effective health intervention globally, preventing between two and three million deaths a year,” McMullen said.

“We are seeing increasing global conversations about vaccine hesitancy, and it is putting lives at risk.”

The report said it was important to rebuild the community’s trust in vaccines to stop immunisation rates from falling further.

What the Data Shows

Fresh figures from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) confirm the downward trend.

Childhood vaccination coverage fell at all major milestones between 2023 and 2024:

• At 12 months, vaccination rates dropped from 92.8 percent to 91.6 percent
• At 24 months, coverage fell from 90.8 percent to 89.4 percent
• By 60 months (five years old), rates declined from 93.3 percent to 92.7 percent

The decline continues a pattern first recorded between 2020 and 2023, showing that the final preschool boosters are also being missed more often.

Coverage among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children decreased at most age points, except for meningococcal B, which rose slightly.

Basic flu vaccinations also saw a major dip. Rates for young children dropped from 30.3 percent to 27.6 percent among those under five, and from 17.9 percent to 15.6 percent in kids aged five to ten.

HPV Protection Weakens

Since 2020, HPV vaccination rates have declined from 86.6 percent to 81.1 percent for girls and from 84.9 percent to 77.9 percent for boys by their 15th birthday.

Indigenous adolescents saw the steepest falls: down 11.1 percentage points for girls and 13.8 points for boys during the same period.

The AMA report also highlights widening inequities. Teenagers in remote and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas are 5–10 percentage points less likely to have received an HPV dose than those in major cities or wealthier communities.

These numbers matter because HPV is linked not just to cervical cancer but also throat, anal, and penile cancers, leaving boys increasingly vulnerable when coverage drops.

Impacts Beginning to Show

McMullen said the decline was already being felt in the health system, with preventable diseases re-emerging adding pressure to an already stretched system.

“Our hospitals are already in logjam, operating at or above capacity, and yet nearly 10 percent of preventable admissions are linked to vaccine-preventable illnesses,” she said.

She warned that falling childhood vaccination puts Australia at risk of measles outbreaks, a disease that has largely disappeared but can return quickly when immunity slips.

“Declining coverage doesn’t just strain our emergency departments—it risks the re-emergence of serious diseases like measles, with life-altering complications, and even undermines Australia’s world-leading success in turning the tide on cervical cancer through HPV vaccination. We cannot afford to see that progress undone,” she said.

Trusted Voice Most Important

With confidence slipping and inequity widening, the AMA is pushing for a renewed focus on general practice as the backbone of Australia’s immunisation system.

“General practitioners are uniquely placed to help turn the tide,” McMullen said. “They are trusted voices in their communities and play a pivotal role in encouraging vaccination.”

The AMA is calling for stronger investment in primary care, including increased funding for the Workforce Incentive Program to expand access to immunisation through GPs and practice nurses.

For those unsure about vaccines, McMullen said the first step is to seek trustworthy advice.

“A simple conversation with your GP can protect your family, strengthen your community, and save lives.”