Coffee Prices Set to Increase As Changing Climates Hurt Coffee Yields

(Photo by Anna Urlapova/Pexels)

Coffee prices are set to hit consumer’s hip pockets as changing climates have affected coffee bean production globally, scientists say.

New Australian research by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the University of Southern Queensland shows that the changing nature of concurrent climate hazards could impact coffee production on a global scale.

The researchers found that between the top 12 coffee-producing regions, the impacts of climate factors such as extremes in temperatures and rainfall have increased in every region for over 40 years. Researchers said the climate variations were likely “driven by large-scale climate modes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).”

These climate hazards occur in multiple locations simultaneously, putting vulnerable coffee crops at risk.

The study, published in the PLOS Climate journal and led by research scientist Doug Richardson, found that global coffee production supply was at risk from climate hazards.

“Coffee crops can fail if the annual average temperature and rainfall is not within an optimal range,” Richardson said in a statement.

“The frequency of climate events has been increasing over the last 40 years.

“Since 1980, global coffee production has become increasingly at risk of synchronised crop failures, which can be driven by climate hazards that affect multiple coffee-producing areas simultaneously.”

Impact of Climate Patterns on Coffee Beans

Between the first half of the period of 1980-2020, the coffee bean growing regions were more prone to experiencing too-cold temperatures during the growing seasons.

Now under the current climate conditions, the same regions are experiencing too-hot conditions, with five of the six most hazardous years occurring since 2010.

The optimal temperature for growing the two most common coffee varieties is between 18 degrees Celcius and 22 degrees Celcius for Arabica and between 22 degrees Celcius and 28 degrees Celcius for Robusta. For annual rainfall rates, the optimal ranges are between 1,400 millimetres and 2,000 millimetres for Arabica, and between 2,000 millimetres and 2,500 millimetres for Robusta.

CSIRO scientist James Risbey said certain recurring climate patterns place are an essential part of predicting hazards in coffee-growing regions.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a recurring climate pattern affecting the tropics and extratropics—can help predict hazards in some regions like tropical South America, Indonesia, and Vietnam,” Risbey said in the media release.

“The good news is that ENSO appears to have less of an impact on Southern Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of Arabica coffee.

“Southern Brazil could therefore help to dampen coffee production shocks felt elsewhere during significant ENSO events like prolonged cool weather (La Niña) or warm weather (El Niño),” Risbey said.

The 12 top coffee-growing regions accounting for about 90 percent of global production of coffee growers are made up of Brazil, Peru, Mexico, Uganda, Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Although major arabica coffee regions in the southeast of Brazil and southwest of Ethiopia are considered the least susceptible to climate hazards, analysis shows that highly productive coffee-growing areas in Brazil and Vietnam may become unsuitable for coffee in the future.

A previous international research paper found that by 2050, “climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 percent across emission scenarios.”

Researchers suggested that world markets may create opportunities in East Africa, but may induce additional deforestation in Asia, where coffee is already a frontier crop.

Australian Love for Coffee

Australian coffee culture slowly developed from the post-war immigration boom in the 1950-1960s with many cafes owned by Greek and Italian migrants.

With the booming cafe industry, Australia’s coffee imports have more than doubled in the last decade, according to a report by Statista.

Australians show their strong love for coffee with 27 percent saying they cannot survive a day without it. Three out of four Australias have at least one cup of coffee per day, and of those 28 percent have three or more cups a day, according to an article by McCrindle.

Although Australia is far behind Scandinavian and European countries in terms of per capita consumption, Australia is still among the top 20 coffee-consuming countries, having consumed more than 1.9 million 60-kilogram bags domestically in 2020.

Famous for inventing the flat white in the mid-1980s, it follows the latte as the most popular type of coffee sold in cafes in Australia in 2019.

The Epoch Times has reached out to coffee roasters Campos Coffee and Industry Beans for comment.