A national poll has strengthened predictions that, despite swapping Sussan Ley for Angus Taylor, the Liberal-National Coalition is in danger of losing the long-held New South Wales regional seat of Farrer in the May 9 by-election.
The contest will be a test of One Nation’s surging popularity across multiple polls and the Liberal Party’s staying power after former leader Sussan Ley’s resignation from Parliament.
According to the Resolve Political Monitor released on Mar. 15, which surveyed over 1,800 people, found the Pauline Hanson-led party gained a point to 24 percent of overall support, while the centre-right Coalition dropped one point to 22 percent.
It was the first time in this poll that the Coalition has fallen below One Nation, and the first time in the Monitor’s history that half of those polled said they would support a minor party or independent over a major one.
Labor’s primary vote was 29 percent, down two points since February. This marked the first time it has gone below 30 percent since exactly one year ago. The Greens registered a one-point increase to 12 percent, with independents also gained one point to reach 8 percent.
The 4-Way Contest for Farrer
The seat of Farrer was held by the Liberals from 1949 until former Nationals leader Tim Fischer won it in 1984.When he retired in 2001, Ley won it back for the Liberals and held it since her recent resignation.
This will be the first by-election fought by both the Liberal and National parties, who generally try to avoid competing against each other.
It will also be a test for both newly elected leaders—Angus Taylor for the Liberals, and Matt Canavan for the Nationals—against a surging One Nation.
The Liberals have pre-selected Albury councillor Raissa Butkowski to contest the seat, while the Nationals have chosen former military commander Brad Robertson. One Nation’s candidate is David Farley, an agricultural businessman.
Popular progressive independent Milthorpe is also proving a threat to the major parties after significantly reducing Ley’s margin at the 2025 federal election, finishing second.
On a two-candidate preferred basis, Ley won 56.19 percent of the vote, with Milthorpe netting 43.81.
Canavan Promises to ‘Defend’ His Movement
Canavan, a former chief of staff to Barnaby Joyce, who quit the Nationals to join One Nation, told The Conversation’s Politics Podcast that while he and his old boss remain friendly, “he’s on a different football team now.”“None of it’s personal. But it is serious, though, because it’s the future of our country. So I’m not going to pull my punches. I will defend our own political movement, or defend why I think Brad [Roberston] is the best candidate here for Farrer, and I'll point out why I think a vote for One Nation is not going to deliver the results for the area,” Canavan said.
He also said he had respect for One Nation leader Hanson and Joyce.
“I don’t agree with his choice, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be mates.”
Canavan also said the Nationals would be directing their second preferences to the Liberal’s Butkowski.
Pauline Hanson said in a statement after One Nation selected David Farley that Farrer was “a resilient community of proud Australians. They deserve a representative who shares the same values, who works hard, and who puts their community first. David Farley is that representative.”
