Character of War Shifting in Favor of Ukraine, Think Tank Says

The Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine is ’starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023.’

Investigators work amid the debris of a destroyed dormitory building of the Starobilsk College of Luhansk Pedagogical University following a recent attack, which Russian authorities called a Ukrainian drone strike, in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the town of Starobilsk (Starobelsk) in the Luhansk region, a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine, on May 24, 2026. Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

A think tank has said that data of Russia’s battlefield performance is showing that “the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” and that the war is not in a stalemate.

The Institute for the Study of War said in its report published on May 25 that Russia’s rate of advancement is “plummeting,” while Ukraine is “starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023.”