Cabinet Office Publishes Disaster Risk List

Terrorist attacks more likely but pandemic would be more 'catastrophic'

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Oliver Dowden, speaks to the media as he departs BBC Broadcasting House in London on March 19, 2023. (Victoria Jones/PA)

The Cabinet Office on Thursday published its latest risk assessment of potential disasters, ranging from drone attacks to another global pandemic.

It’s the first time the published National Risk Register (NRR) included details that would have been classified in previous issues, such as attacks on gas infrastructure in Ukraine and threats to undersea transatlantic telecommunications cables.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said the 2023 NRR was based “directly” on the government’s internal risk assessment, and information was only redacted for specific reasons, such as national security or commercial confidentiality.

An online tool was also launched for the first time to make it easier for businesses and the public to navigate the information.

The list only includes those considered “acute risks” that would require an emergency response. Risks categorised as “chronic,” such as organised crime, are not listed.

The document noted that the government is examining artificial intelligence, which may exacerbate a range of chronic and acute risks.

Launching the publication during a visit to the Able Seaton Port, where wind turbine components were being prepared for loading onto a specialised floating platform, Mr. Dowden said, “This is the most comprehensive risk assessment we’ve ever published, so that government and our partners can put robust plans in place and be ready for anything.

“One of those rising risks is energy security. We’ve installed the first turbine at the future world’s largest offshore windfarm, which will provide secure, low-cost, and clean energy for the British people—enabling us to stand up to Putin’s energy ransom,” he said.

The government also said it will “continue to provide tailored guidance and communications to help people understand the risks that are most likely to affect them, and the specific actions they can take to protect themselves.”

Following consultation with experts, the government listed 89 potential risks that may occur in the next two to five years and placed them into a matrix to illustrate how likely they may occur and the level of potential impact.

Terrorist Attacks Most Likely

The risks are categorised under nine themes, including terrorism; cyber; state threats; geographic and diplomatic; accidents and systems failures; natural and environmental hazards; human, animal, and planet health; societal; and conflict and instability.

According to the assessment, terrorist attacks, including international and Northern Ireland related terrorism, are among the scenarios that were considered most likely to happen (likelihood of over 25 percent).

Other scenarios include the assassination of a high-profile public figure, a technological failure or cyber attacks that may shut down a crucial financial market infrastructure, a disaster in the Overseas Territories, a major outbreak of plant pest, or an attack on a non-NATO British ally that requires international assistance.

These potential impact of these relatively likely scenarios were accessed to range between minor to moderate, meaning potential fatalities may be less than 200, with up to 400 potential casualties in total, and the economic impact could be limited to between millions to hundreds of millions in pounds.

‘Catastrophic’ Risks

A global pandemic was put into the “catastrophic” category, with a likelihood rating of “highly unlikely (between 5 to 25 percent).”

In a modelled worst case scenario, in which half of the population would fall ill, there will be 840,000 deaths, more than three times more than the UK’s COVID-19 headline death toll.

A “catastrophic” risk was defined as a disaster that would lead to more than 1,000 fatalities, more than 2,000 casualties, and/or an economic cost in tens of billion pounds.

Other “catastrophic” events, which are deemed remotely possible at best, include larger-scale Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear attacks; an electricity transmission system failure that causes a national blackout; a civil nuclear accident, or radiation from a nuclear site outside of the UK.

The document said a number of factors can lead to a national blackout, such as an extreme weather event, a cyber attack, or cascading technical failures.

Since the first commercial nuclear power station came into operation in 1956 in Sellafield, a small number of accidents have occurred worldwide, the most catastrophic of which were Russia’s Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986 and Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

The worst nuclear accident in the UK occured in 1957, when a fire broke out from one of  the Windscale piles. The accident, which released radioactive material that spread across the UK and Northern Europe, was one of the earliest nuclear accidents in the world.

The NRR said a civil nuclear accident is now “extremely unlikely” because British law “requires planning for a range of scenarios, including those far beyond a reasonable worst-case” in line with international good practice.

Other potentially “significant” risks, which were also deemed to be remotely possible or rarer, include scenarios such as conventional attacks on infrastructure, flooding, heatwaves or snow,a nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK, or a failure of global navigation satellite system.