Bird Flu a Reminder to Put up Safeguards Against ‘Threat of a Future Pandemic’: Professor

‘It is not a matter of ’if‘ but ’when‘ the next pandemic occurs,’ the New Zealand COVID-19 Royal Commission inquiry chair said.

Test tubes labelled "Bird Flu" and eggs are seen in a picture illustration on Jan. 14, 2023. Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters

The bird flu situation is reminder the “threat of a future pandemic is real,” according to the chair of New Zealand’s COVID-19 Royal Commission.

In an update for the New Zealand COVID-19 inquiry, Professor Tony Blakely said the world is “alert to the risk” that H5N1 could mutate to a variant that is capable of human to human airborne transmission.

“There hasn’t been a recorded case of H5N1 in Aotearoa (New Zealand), and we do have protocols and plans in place to monitor this disease,” the University of Melbourne epidemiologist said.

“This recent development is a timely reminder that the threat of a future pandemic is real. It is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ the next pandemic occurs.

“It’s vital, from an inquiry perspective, that we have the right systems in place to ensure that any future pandemic, whether it is caused by H5N1 or another virus, can be managed safely and successfully for everyone in Aotearoa New Zealand.”

Dr. Blakely noted H5N1 poses a real risk to native wildlife in New Zealand and has already killed hundreds of millions of birds worldwide.

There have been about 900 reported human cases of H5N1 bird flu and nearly 500 deaths since 2003.

Nearly all known cases have been transmitted straight from birds to humans.

“Fortunately, human-to-human spread of H5N1 is incredibly rare and to our knowledge only occurs with intense close contact (e.g. caring for a severely unwell patient),” Dr. Blakely said.

“Airborne human-to-human transmission in a manner similar to COVID-19 or seasonal influenza has not been documented. However, we have recently seen a rise in cases in other mammals, and we have also seen mammals, particularly cows, spreading it to each other.”

The professor said the COVID inquiry continues to hold engagements to ensure they have a complete picture of the COVID-19 response.

The goal is to make sure New Zealand is “as prepared as possible for a future pandemic,” Dr. Blakely said.

Meanwhile, Sanjaya Senanayake, lecturer at Australian National University’s medical school, claimed the next pandemic could be just around the corner and bird flu is a “likely candidate.”

Dr. Senanayake made these comments on May 23 after the first Australian case of human bird flu H5N1 was announced.

“Despite having ‘COVID fatigue’ and not wanting to hear the word ‘pandemic’ again, the next pandemic could be just around the corner, and a strain of bird flu is a likely candidate,” he said.

“Unlike the early days of COVID, at least with H5N1, there are already human vaccines and antivirals.”

Bird Flu Spread Not a Cause for Concern: Biosecurity New Zealand

Biosecurity New Zealand said while avian influenza is known to be transmissible to mammals, it mainly affects domesticated and wild birds.

The agency noted in other countries where high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is present, human infection has been rare and generally only found in people who have had a lot of contact with infected birds or other infected animals.

“The likelihood of the introduction of HPAI H5N1 on pathways that we manage is low. If HPAI H5N1 arrives in New Zealand, it could spread by direct contact between infected and healthy birds, or through contamination of equipment and materials, including water and feed,” Biosecurity New Zealand previously said in May 2024.

Meanwhile, University of Queensland influenza virologist Dr. Kirsty Short, discussing the Australian bird flu situation, said it is “very reassuring” that the strain identified is an H7 virus, rather than the problematic H5N1 strain that is circulating globally.

“However, this should serve as an important reminder as to the need for constant vigilance regarding avian influenza and the need to report any sick or dying birds to the appropriate authorities,” she said.

Meanwhile, Head of Biosecurity Program at the Kirby Institute Professor Raina MacIntyre said recently that avian flu viruses do not transmit easily in humans because they are adapted for birds, which have different receptors in their respiratory tract to ours.

However, she noted they can mutate to become adapted to the human respiratory tract.

“For now, we have an avian flu outbreak in farmed birds which is not the most feared strain, thankfully. Whether H5N1 can get here via wild birds remains an open question.”