Australia’s defence obligations under the AUKUS pact could be affected by a delivery delay of up to three years of secondhand Virginia-class submarines from the United States.
Bloomberg reported this week that an internal review commissioned in January by U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro to assess shipbuilding challenges facing the United States concluded that production was running 24 to 36 months behind schedule.
U.S. Defence Under Secretary and Chief Financial Officer Michael McCord said in March that the overhang from COVID-19 has stalled production of submarines by as much as 30 months, with 12 vessels on order still to be completed.
Under the AUKUS pact, Australia committed to purchasing at least three vessels to provide the Australian Navy with a strategic advantage to counteract the growing presence of the Chinese navy in the Indo-Pacific region and to protect its vulnerable trade routes.
The vessels are fitted with torpedoes and land-attack missiles and will have the future capacity to carry anti-ship Tomahawk cruise missiles. The order is scheduled to be delivered in full by 2032.
However, the supply of the submarines to Australia is under serious threat after the United States cut one Virginia-class submarine from the proposed 2025 defence budget.
The U.S. Navy plans to order just one new nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine, down from an original two, saving US$4 billion (AU$6 billion). But this throws a spanner in the works for Canberra, which plans to acquire and retain older models suitable for Australia’s own naval requirements.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell this week acknowledged U.S. concerns over the delay, saying it was “a substantial focus at senior levels, the White House, Defence, and the State Department.”
Speaking at a Washington-based think tank event, Mr. Campbell said expedient delivery was a cornerstone of AUKUS.
“One of the important things about AUKUS is it reminded us that we needed to do more, both to build more submarines more generally, but also to get those submarines that need repairs that are in dry dock back in the water more quickly,” he said.
Australia’s Submarine Sagas Continue
Australia has appropriated $368 million for its AUKUS commitments over the next 30 years.As part of an agreement signed with its partners in March 2023, it agreed, along with the UK, to produce a new type of submarine class known as SSN-AUKUS—a “trilaterally developed” vessel designed by the UK, fitted with U.S. technology, and built in Australia. It is expected to begin rolling out in the late 2030s.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese heralded the project.
“The scale, complexity, and economic significance of the investment is akin to the creation of the Australian automotive industry in the post-war period,” he said.
However, the scheme has had its critics, including two former prime ministers, Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating.
Mr. Turnbull said last year that the AUKUS project would take longer and cost more than the scrapped $90 billion plan to buy submarines from France in 2021, which incurred a penalty settlement of $835 million and frosted relations between Canberra and Paris.
Mr. Keating, known for his pro-Beijing stance, was scathing in his assessment of Australia’s commitment to AUKUS.
He argued that the alliance “would leave Australia with fewer submarines while constraining the country’s ability to operate independently of the United States.”
“Anthony Albanese screwed into place the last shackle in the long chain the United States has laid out to contain China,” Mr. Keating said.
