Aussie PM ‘Confident’ Submarine Deal With US on Track Despite Opposition From Republican Lawmakers

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (R) with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) during a meeting ahead of Australia-US Ministerial (AUSMIN) consultations in Brisbane, Australia on July 28, 2023. (AAP Image/Pool, Pat Hoelscher)

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is confident that a deal for the United States to sell Australia three nuclear-powered submarines is on track despite opposition from Republicans in the U.S. Congress.

This comes as 25 Republican congressmen told U.S. President Joe Biden on July 27 that providing the submarines to Australia under the AUKUS pact would “unacceptably weaken” the U.S. Navy fleet.

Speaking to reporters on July 28 at the annual Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) meeting in Brisbane, Mr. Albanese said he remained confident that Australia would acquire the submarines.

“Just like in Australia, there are not unanimous things through parliament,” Mr. Albanese said.

“I met with Republicans and Democrats in Lithuania just a couple of weeks ago, and what struck me was the unanimous support for AUKUS.

“The unanimous support for the relationship between Australia and the United States has never been stronger.”

Defence Minister Richard Marles said the U.S. Congress could be a complicated place, but the submarine deal was solid.

“We’re encouraged by how quickly it is going through,” Mr. Marles told ABC Radio on July 28.

“Fundamentally, we have reached an agreement with the Biden administration about how Australia requires the nuclear-powered submarine capability, and we’re proceeding along that path with pace.”

US Congressmen Call on the White House to Lift Production

Meanwhile, Republican congressmen who oppose the submarine sale to Australia have asked the White House to provide an immediate plan to lift production of the Virginia class submarines by 100 percent to a minimum of 2.5 per year.

“The administration’s current plan requires the transfer of three US Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia from the existing US submarine fleet without a clear plan for replacing these submarines,” the letter (pdf), signed by Republican congressmen including Ted Cruz, Mitch McConnell, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney, said.

“This plan, if implemented without change, would unacceptably weaken the US fleet even as China seeks to expand its military power and influence.

“Under the current AUKUS plan to transfer US Virginia-class submarines to a partner nation before meeting the Navy’s own requirements, the number of available nuclear submarines in the US submarine fleet would be lowered further. This is a risk we cannot take.”

In March, the U.S. offered Australia three vessels, with the potential to provide two more if needed, which will stand in as a stopgap to fill in a gap in Australia’s capability left by its retiring conventional Collins-class submarines before its new fleet of eight next-generation SSN AUKUS submarines can be built.

The capability gap would mean that the ageing diesel-powered Collins Class submarines would likely need to be extended.

Former U.S. Navy Secretary Richard Spencer, who served as secretary of the U.S. Navy during the Trump administration, said in November 2022 that the U.S. Navy should provide more help to defend Australia’s waters until it acquires its own nuclear submarines in response to the rising threat from Beijing.

“I believe it is difficult to say, ‘We are your ally, and we are here to support you when you are sitting at the tip of the spear,’ but it’s going to be 10 years until we deliver the critical piece of gear you need,” Mr. Spencer told The Australian.

U.S. Senate Approves Transfer of Nuclear Subs to Australia

On July 13, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee started the process of attaining U.S. congressional approval for the U.S. to temporarily give Australia two nuclear-powered submarines, alongside other measures to deepen defense sharing with the AUKUS defense alliance.

It also approves the sale of a third, unspecified submarine to Australia.

The bill—presented as an amendment in the State Authorization Act of 2023—effectively fast-tracks the transfer of secret U.S. military hardware to Australia and the UK over the next five years, which sees the AUKUS members prioritised in line just behind Taiwan and Ukraine.

However, U.S. shipyards are currently behind their target production rate of two Virginia-class SSNs each year, which ensures the replacement of the U.S. Navy’s retiring vessels.

Currently, the U.S. has 21 Virginia-class vessels on duty, 26 previous model Los Angeles-class vessels, and 3 Seawolf-class vessels, making up a fleet of 50 submarines.

Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, currently has 56 submarines in its fleet, although only six are nuclear-powered attack vessels.

Australia has promised to contribute US$3 billion to the U.S. government as part of the AUKUS pact to assist with domestic submarine production in the U.S.

The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence noted in a report that China’s submarine fleet is expected to grow from 66 vessels to 76 by 2030. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, China is also developing its nuclear-powered capabilities.

At the AUSMIN meeting on July 28, U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy commented on Beijing’s rise in the region.

“There is a change in Chinese behaviour in this region, and the United States is committed to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Ms. Kennedy said.

“We want to preserve the stability and the prosperity that the rules-based order has provided.”

Melanie Sun contributed to this report.