AUKUS May Be Impacted by US Submarine Supply Constraints

AUKUS aims to increase security in the Indo-Pacific region, and the supply of the submarines is under threat after the US cuts to their defence budget.

The Virginia-class fast attack submarine USS Colorado (SSN 788) is seen before at the commissioning ceremony at Naval Submarine Base New London in Groton, Conn., on March 17, 2018. Dana Jensen/The Day via AP

Australian defence officials say they are not concerned by the potential repercussions of the scaling down of production and the subsequent supply of U.S.-built Virginia-class submarines by the Biden administration.

Under conditions of the AUKUS Defence Pact, Australia’s diesel submarine fleet will be upgraded by the U.S. selling up to five second-hand submarines by the early 2030s.

AUKUS, signed in 2021, is a trilateral security arrangement that aims to increase security and intelligence gathering amid a growing Chinese military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, the supply of the submarines is under threat after the United States cut a Virginia-class submarine from the proposed 2025 defence budget, with the U.S. Navy planning on ordering just one new fast-attack nuclear from an original two, saving US$4 billion (AU$6 billion) but throwing a spanner in the works of Canberra’s plans for acquisition.

The overhang from COVID-19 has stalled production of submarines by as much as 30 months, with 12 vessels on order still to be completed, U.S. Defence Under Secretary Comptroller and Chief Financial Officer, Michael McCord, told the AAP.

“We’ve already had some beginnings of submarine industrial base investments ... It was a priority in last year’s budget, which, again, we don’t have that money yet, so that’s a problem,” he said.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L), U.S. President Joe Biden (C), and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (R) hold a press conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit in San Diego, Calif., on March 13, 2023. Leon Neal/Getty Images

Cuts Will Have an Impact on AUKUS Might

Congressman Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) opposed the cut to submarine spending, telling the House the move would have a “profound impact” on the AUKUS allies’ defensive capabilities.

“If such a cut is enacted, it will remove one more attack submarine from a fleet that is already 17 submarines below the Navy’s long-stated requirement of 66,” Mr. Courtney said.

Under the AUKUS deal, President Biden has called for US$11 billion of additional investment to be directed towards sub-builder General Dynamics Electric Boat to shore up the submarine industry and expedite production, while Australia will contribute a US$3 billion (AU$4.5 billion) “investment.”

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Wednesday via a spokesman that despite the cuts to production, Australia and its allies remained committed to AUKUS, citing the United States would not want to jeopardise its position in the Indo-Pacific.

“All three AUKUS partners are working at pace to integrate our industrial bases and to realise this historic initiative between our countries,” Mr. Marles said.

However, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Australia was “bobbing along as a cork in the maelstrom of American politics.”

He doubted the submarine order would be delivered given the proposed budget cuts, saying the United States would always prioritise their own navy.

“This is really a case of us being mugged by reality ... unless the Americans are able to dramatically change the pace at which they’re producing submarines, and there’s no reason to believe they will be able to do so, we will not ever get the submarines that were promised,” Mr. Turnbull told ABC radio.

“The Americans are not going to make their submarine deficit worse than it is already by giving or selling submarines to Australia and the AUKUS legislation actually sets that up.”