‘Lethal Targeting’: ASIO Warns 3 Foreign States Poised for Assassination Attempt

The ASIO chief warned of a ’realistic possibility' a foreign government could attempt to assassinate a dissident on Australian soil.

Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director General Mike Burgess poses for a portrait ahead of his annual threat assessment speech at ASIO headquarters in Canberra, Australia on Feb. 28, 2024. AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

Months after Canberra forced out Iran’s ambassador over its role in plots against Jewish targets, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess has issued another alarm: more hostile governments are positioning to strike inside Australia.

“We believe there are at least three nations willing and capable of conducting lethal targeting here,” Burgess told the 2025 Lowy Lecture on Nov. 4, warning of a “realistic possibility” a foreign government could attempt to assassinate a dissident on Australian soil.

He did not name the countries, but said Australia was now confronting an unprecedented mix of threats to national security and social cohesion, ranging from “Russian trolls, neo-Nazis, Islamists, extreme anti-Israel activists, and hostile state actors.”

AUKUS Intel Hunt Exposed

Burgess detailed a recent espionage case in which ASIO disrupted a foreign intelligence operation attempting to recruit Australians and extract sensitive commercial and strategic information.

“Inside information on Australia’s economy, critical minerals and AUKUS were high on the list,” said Burgess.

The plot included arranging covert travel for an Australian intermediary to meet operatives offshore.

“The foreign intelligence service arranged for an Australian to travel by plane and then boat to a third country for a face-to-face meeting,” he said.

Burgess revealed that the agency worked with a partner in the third country to deliver “an unwelcome surprise.”

“When the intelligence officers arrived at the location, they were not met by their target, they were met by an ASIO officer,” he said.

High-Harm Tactics Escalate

Burgess warned hostile regimes are now willing to “exploit fault lines in countries they consider hostile,” citing Iran’s covert direction of arson attacks on Jewish businesses and religious centres in Sydney and Melbourne.

“It is entirely possible the regimes would try to hide their involvement by hiring criminal cut-outs, as Iran did when directing its arson attacks,” he said.

After months of investigation, authorities confirmed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was linked to the attacks. The move led to the suspension of diplomatic ties with the country and the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organisation.

Burgess warned Russia was also intensifying information warfare to inflame division and distract from its invasion of Ukraine.

Three-Tier Threat to Cohesion

Burgess warned Australia’s social fabric is now being pulled from three directions—“the aggrieved, the opportunistic, and the cunning.”

The aggrieved, he said, are individuals whose distrust in institutions has surged since COVID-19 and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Some are embracing conspiracy theories, anti-authority views and hybrid ideologies, with a rising minority now treating violence as a legitimate political tool.

The opportunistic are extremist networks seeking to harness public anger.

Burgess pointed to the rebranded National Socialist Network, which has used cost-of-living and immigration rallies to bring attention to its extremist nationalist agenda, viewing media attention as free recruitment.

“They see journalists as ‘useful idiots’ … even critical coverage leads to a surge in membership applications,” he said.

He also cited anti-Israel anarchist movements and Hizb ut-Tahrir—banned in the UK but not in Australia—for exploiting public tensions.

“Hizb ut Tahrir wants to test and stretch the boundaries of legality without breaking them. As with the neo-Nazis, this does not make its behaviour acceptable. I fear its anti-Israel rhetoric is fuelling and normalising wider anti-Semitic narratives,” he added.

However, the most dangerous are hostile states—“the cunning”—who “deliberately try to set the fabric alight.”

Burgess explained that they use propaganda to glorify violent extremism and advocate attacks on specific targets, presumably to encourage violence, alarm communities, incite sectarianism, and destabilise regional governments.

“Regimes are operating in a security ‘grey zone’ … using non-traditional tools to interfere in decision-making, promote discord, amplify distrust, and spread false narratives in Western democracies,” he said.

AI Turbocharges Extremism

Burgess cautioned that technology is accelerating radicalisation faster than security agencies have seen before.

“In terms of social cohesion, the internet is the greatest incubator of grievance narratives and conspiracy theories,” he said.

“While the internet incubates, social media accelerates. And while the internet incubates and social media accelerates, artificial intelligence exacerbates.”

He warned AI-driven propaganda and deepfakes could take foreign interference and domestic extremism “to entirely new levels,” creating a “cumulative level of potential harm” not seen before in Australia.

In Europe, Russian cyber operatives connected to intelligence services have inflamed community tensions by spreading false news and promoting violent narratives, particularly on the topic of immigration.

Problem ‘Not Insurmountable’

Despite the grave tone, Burgess said Australia is far from helpless.

“Please note I said, ‘attempt to assassinate,’” he said. “ASIO and our law enforcement partners are acutely alive to this threat and are working around the clock.”

But national security alone, he argued, cannot defend social unity.

“You cannot spy your way to greater cohesion or arrest your way to fewer grievances,” he said. “Every one of us has a role to play. Our words matter, our decisions matter, our actions matter.”

“While the threats and challenges facing us are significant, they are not insurmountable … We can and should have confidence in our ability to respond,” he concluded.