ANALYSIS: Liberal Government Confronted by Hard Reality of Social Woes

Members of the federal cabinet stand behind Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as he speaks at a media availability after a cabinet shuffle at Rideau Hall in Ottawa on July 26, 2023. (Justin Tang/The Canadian Press)

The Liberals barely mentioned cost-of-living issues in the speech from the throne outlining their priorities after getting elected in the fall of 2021. Fast-forward two years, and questions about affordability hit them at every turn.

Along with many Canadians struggling to buy food and make rent, news of random acts of wanton violence appear more common. In both cases, what is being experienced in the day-to-day is reflected in the statistics.

Crime is rising, and while broader inflation has gone down, food and shelter prices keep going up.

The Liberal government has responded by repackaging tax rebates or delivering them sooner to alleviate the financial pressures. It has also touted the creation of new social programs such as dental care and child care.

On crime, it has been successfully pressured to review its previously adopted bail policies, which have a social justice dimension that can negatively impact community safety.

Social woes have been steadily highlighted by the Conservative Party, and more effectively since its leader Pierre Poilievre took over the helm in September 2022. The Tories have been increasing their favourability in the polls since.

It’s against this backdrop that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted a reboot on July 26 with a major cabinet shuffle. He said the move was to provide an “ambitious and optimistic future I know Canadians want, and that is a clear contrast from the brokenness philosophy that the leader of the Conservative Party continues to put forward.”

The two senior ministers in charge of public safety and justice were dropped out of cabinet entirely. Mr. Trudeau explained the removal of Marco Mendicino and David Lametti by citing the need to put together the “strongest possible team” with “fresh energy.”

But ministers directly in charge of managing the economy stayed in place. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne were among the eight ministers to keep their jobs.

When asked why they kept their posts despite the economic situation, Mr. Trudeau said he has an “incredible economic team” and that he was “so proud” of the two ministers.

“We’ve seen inflation come down in Canada faster than many, many of our peer countries,” he said. “We’ve seen Canadians supported by targeted investments that have put money in their pockets while inflation has gone down.”

Inflation rose 2.8 percent year-over-year in June, a far cry from the 8.1 percent seen a year prior. But grocery prices have continued to rise sharply with an increase of 9.1 percent. Mortgage interest costs also increased 30.1 percent year-over-year due to the Bank of Canada raising its policy rate to tame inflation.

The prime minister also framed the shuffle as a means of “bolstering that economic team” by moving Jean-Yves Duclos to procurement, Anita Anand to the Treasury Board, and Sean Fraser to housing.

Out of the three, Mr. Fraser is arguably the only one whose housing portfolio can have a direct impact on people’s most basic living conditions. He was previously in charge of Immigration Canada, which set a target of welcoming 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025.

After the shuffle, Mr. Fraser was asked by reporters how this target can be reconciled with the low stock of housing.

“I would urge caution to anyone who believes the answer to our housing challenges is to close the door on newcomers,” said the minister, adding that an obstacle to completing construction projects is the lack of workforce.

“If we don’t continue to welcome people through thoughtful immigration policies that are going to meet the economic needs of our communities, we won’t maximize our economic potential.”

Mr. Fraser said there are no “simple solutions” to improving the housing situation, but he pointed to measures to build more stock, support first-time homebuyers, and protect low-income families.

Rising Crime

Another minister facing an important challenge is Arif Virani, who replaced Mr. Lametti as minister of justice and attorney general.

When appointed in 2019, Mr. Lametti didn’t face concerns about crime like today, but he was plunged right into the SNC-Lavallin scandal that eventually led to his predecessor Jody Wilson-Raybould being expelled from the Liberal caucus.

In his first public communications, outside of dealing with the scandal, he praised the path taken by his predecessor and his government on introducing key legislation.

“We have provided progressive, forward-looking government that has not been afraid to embrace transformational change,” he told the Canadian Bar Association in February 2019.

He gave the example of creating a legal framework for medical assistance in dying and the legalization of cannabis.

“The sky did not fall,” he said. “Legalization embodies an acceptance of Canada as it is now.”

Cannabis poisoning has increased following legalization, according to studies, with drug-impaired driving doubling, according to a federal report. Illegal dealers also still control about a third of the market.

Mr. Lametti also mentioned the changes to bail rules made with Bill C-75, which sought to make it easier for indigenous offenders to get bail. “It is a source of national shame that indigenous peoples are over represented in the criminal justice system both as victims and offenders,” he said.

Four years later, pressure from provinces, police chiefs, and other stakeholders resulted in Mr. Lametti tabling Bill C-48 in May to reform bail rules.

The calls grew stronger after it was revealed the accused killer of Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) Constable Greg Pierzchala was released on bail because of his indigenous status and despite being a repeat violent offender.

Mr. Virani also spoke of the overrepresentation of certain groups within the prison system during some of his first comments after receiving the biggest promotion during the cabinet shuffle.

He was also asked to comment on the latest crime numbers reported by Statistics Canada. The agency reported on July 27 that violent crime in 2022 reached its highest level since 2007.

Pressure surrounding this issue could put the progressive agenda on the back burner in order to convince Canadians that they aren’t less safe under the Liberal government, with data showing crime in an upward trend after they took power in 2015.

But Mr. Virani’s first public comment on crime was to say there is no proof the security situation is worsening.

He told Reuters in late July that he thinks “empirically it’s unlikely” Canada is becoming less safe.

“But I think there’s a sense coming out of the pandemic that people’s safety is more in jeopardy,” he said.

The new justice minister and attorney general said his government would look to target the root causes of criminality, such as housing and health.

He will also help to navigate Bill C-48 through the House of Commons, with the legislation having yet to advance. The bill seeks to shift the burden of proof onto some defendants seeking bail.

The House is set to reconvene on Sept. 18, having ended the last sitting on June 21, and the Conservatives appear eager to ramp up the pressure on the government.

“Conservatives are calling on the Ministers of Finance, Housing, Justice and Public Safety to cut their vacations short and appear before parliamentary committees to face scrutiny for their failures,” says an Aug. 8 party press release.

Reuters contributed to this report.