Leader of the Government in the House of Commons Steven MacKinnon rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, March 21, 2024. (The Canadian Press/Justin Tang)
The Liberals’ upcoming legislative agenda will prioritize passing the latest budget, delivering the fall economic statement, and moving through several progressive bills, according to a number of political pundits. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are likely to continue efforts to eliminate the carbon tax and focus on other “meat-and-potatoes” economic issues, they say.
“It’s pretty clear coming out of the budget that the [Liberals’] legislative priorities will be to deliver on a progressive agenda that connects, especially with young people,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, in an interview.
“For a prime minister who in 2015 was really catapulted into majority territory with young people, it looks like this government wants to recapture those voters.”
Budget 2024, tabled on April 16, proposes $53 billion in new spending over five years. Some $8.5 billion of that is in new spending on housing, including a $6 billion housing infrastructure fund to speed up construction and upgrades and a $1.5 billion rental protection fund to help non-profits buy rental units and keep rents affordable.
The $535 billion budget for fiscal year 2024–25 also proposes to increase the capital gains inclusion rate, to collect an extra $19.4 billion over five years starting this year, intended to impact just 0.13 percent of Canadians.
Under the proposal, individuals would have to pay tax on two-thirds of their annual capital gains above $250,000, instead of the current 50 percent. They would still pay tax on just 50 percent of gains up to that threshold. For corporations and trusts, the two-thirds inclusion rate would apply to their total annual capital gains, up from the current 50 percent, with no $250,000 threshold.
While Mr. Nanos said this new tax was meant to raise revenues to assist Canadians struggling with affordability, it has caused a debate about whether the measure will hurt businesses, doctors, and investment in Canada.
“Now the budget narrative about the things that they wanted to do has been overtaken by a debate on the capital gains tax,” he said. “It’s pretty clear that Liberals are now off-message, because they’re defending the tax increase as opposed to advancing their progressive investments.”
Conservatives' House leader Andrew Scheer in a file photo. (The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld)
Greg Loerts, a consultant at Bluesky Strategy Group, said the Liberals will be focused on passing Bill C-59, which implements certain provisions from the fall economic statement tabled in November 2023.
“They released a budget without finishing the implementation of the previous one, so there’s a lot of urgency on that,” he told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Loerts, formerly a staffer on Parliament Hill, said Bill C-59 and the current budget would take up the majority of the party’s resources. He added the Liberals would likely use the time allocation rule to negotiate with other parties or hold midnight sittings if the bills were being stalled.
Mr. Loerts said the Liberals will also emphasize passing Bill C-64, or the Pharmacare Act, given that it’s a “pillar of the supply and confidence agreement” between the Liberals and New Democrats. The two parties have been in that agreement since March 2022. The deal keeps Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in power until Parliament rises in June 2025, in exchange for delivering on NDP priorities like pharmacare and dental care.
Additionally, Mr. Loerts predicts the government will emphasize passing Bill C-49, which focuses on offshore wind energy production in Atlantic Canada, and Bill C-50, the Canadian Sustainable Jobs Act, which focuses on transitioning workers away from the fossil fuel industry toward jobs more compatible with a “net-zero emissions economy.” He believes passing the two bills are “relatively major priorities” for Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.
Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, agrees the Liberals will emphasize passing Bill C-59, the latest budget, and other programs related to cost-of-living issues like housing.
“Outside of the budget, I think they also see some value in continuing to push forward with the pharmacare legislation and make the most of the Conservative opposition to that,” he told The Epoch Times.
Conservative and NDP Priorities
NDP House leader Peter Julian in a file photo. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)
Mr. Nanos said the Conservative Party’s legislative agenda will revolve around “meat-and-potatoes” issues like the economy, taxes, jobs, and government spending. He suggests that, given the latest Nanos poll showing the Conservatives have a 19-point lead over the Liberals following tabling of the budget, the Tories will “stay clear” of controversial social issues like gender identity and immigration.
As for the NDP, Mr. Nanos said leader Jagmeet Singh is trying not to look like a “Liberal cheerleader,” which could be why he has not indicated whether he will vote in favour of the budget. In recent days, Mr. Singh has said his party is still undecided about the budget, as disability benefits for Canadians are too low.
Mr. Loerts said the Conservatives will likely continue introducing motions to get rid of the federal carbon tax. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has made “axe the tax” a flagship political issue, introducing several unsuccessful motions in the House of Commons on the subject.
The NDP is expected to concentrate efforts on passing Bill C-50and the pharmacare bill, the latter of which the New Democrats played a role in drafting.
“I think also you’re going to see from the NDP a lot of focus on taking credit for social programs that have been introduced under the Liberals,” Mr. Loerts said, pointing to a news release by the party following tabling of Budget 2024. The release highlighted protections for renters, more accessibility to non-profit child care, and doubling of tax credits for volunteer firefighters and search and rescue volunteers.
“They need to take credit for Liberal government initiatives in order to differentiate themselves ... because otherwise there’s going to be no difference between the two parties in the next election,” he said.
Mr. Graefe predicts the Conservatives will continue focusing on the carbon tax as well as the Liberal government’s deficit spending. He said the narrative around government spending increasing the price of goods is an effective way to capture the votes of Canadians in large cities and suburbs.
“It’s a good Conservative theme to make the argument that the government has lost control of the budget. So I suspect they'll continue to make those claims,” he said.
Mr. Graefe said while the NDP will likely end up voting in favour of the budget, Mr. Singh will continue criticizing the Liberals for not doing enough to support struggling Canadians. He also predicts New Democrats will focus on pharmacare to distinguish themselves from the Conservatives.
“In significant parts of this country, particularly in the western provinces, it’s a blue-versus-orange fight, not a blue-versus-red fight,” he said. “In those spaces, [the NDP] will make the claim that these programs were delivered for working Canadians. It’s probably pretty crucial to their chances of electoral success.”
