ANALYSIS: China–Russia Coalition ‘Has Cracked’ After Wagner Mutiny

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping leave after a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. (Grigory Sysoyev/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

Short-lived as the Wagner rebellion was, its impact is rippling far beyond Russia’s borders. It could even be the beginning of the end for the coalition that Beijing led with Moscow against the free world, some analysts have said.

In a dramatic 24 hours, the paramilitary group captured world attention as it took over the city of Rostov, a key tactical hub for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Leading the revolt was Yevgeny Prigozhin, a once-trusted ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who described the action as a “stab in the back.”

Prigozhin is now in exile in Belarus as a condition of a deal that assures that Russia won’t press criminal charges against him. But his flight—after leading a rebellion that posed the most serious test to Putin in the Russian president’s more than two decades in power—has far from closed the matter in the eyes of outside observers.

“We see cracks emerging,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS. “Where they go, if anywhere, when they get there, very hard to say, but I don’t think we’ve seen the final act.”

Cracks have appeared in more than just the Russian regime, according to geopolitical analyst Gordon Chang.

“China is trying to overturn the entire international system. Although China’s powerful, it’s not that powerful. It needs allies like Putin, and if Putin isn’t going to survive, then China’s in trouble,” Chang, author of “The Coming Collapse of China,” told The Epoch Times.

Members of the Wagner Group stand on the balcony of the circus building in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. (Roman Romokhov/AFP via Getty Images)

Beijing ‘Shaken’

Beijing had maintained silence as Prigozhin’s forces marched on Moscow, addressing it for the first time only the day after a truce halted the movement of Prigozhin’s armed forces. “This is Russia’s internal affair,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement. “As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”

The delayed reaction from Beijing was because “it didn’t know what to say,” Chang said.

“The problem here for Xi Jinping is because he’s declared a ‘no limits’ partnership with Russia. And this ‘no limits’ partner was almost deposed in those stunning developments,“ he said. ”So I think China is a little bit shaken by this.”

Xi and Putin put forward the “no limits” partnership on the opening day of the Beijing Winter Olympics, as the two held their first in-person meeting in two years while scoffing at what they called the “interference in the internal affairs” from the West.

That was less than three weeks before Russia began its attack on Ukraine. About a year later, in March, Xi became a guest of honor in Moscow. In parting with Putin at the time, the smiling Chinese communist leader said that the two were driving forward a “change which hasn’t happened in 100 years.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees off Chinese leader Xi Jinping after a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. (Pavel Byrkin/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

But the Wagner uprising took Beijing by surprise.

In 1991, in a similarly fleeting coup attempt, hardliners from the Soviet Union’s Communist Party locked up Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in his Crimea vacation villa. The plot fell apart in three days, but it was the trigger that brought the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union four months later.

Chang sees Putin in a similar position.

“He was able to prevent the insurrection from toppling him, but Russia has been destabilized, so I don’t think we’ve heard the last word,” he said.

For the Chinese regime, which counts on Russia as an effective ally to subvert the U.S.-led world order, this doesn’t bode well.

“China tries to portray itself as invincible, as dominating the world,” Chang said. “Well, it doesn’t look so intimidating right now. It looked a lot more intimidating last week than it does at this moment.”

Troubles Back Home

A weakened political standing for Putin isn’t the only concern in Beijing’s calculus.

Days after the Wagner rebellion, Xi promoted two political commissars to the rank of general, a move some interpreted as his attempt to consolidate power. A Chinese military officer, writing for PLA Daily, the official newspaper of China’s highest military operational body, opined that Chinese armed forces must “enhance national security awareness” and be ready to “face major tests in a stormy sea.”

“China believes that Russia is in such a mess because there is no communist party control of the government, so Xi Jinping is going to absolutely heighten that position,” Miles Yu, director of the China Center at Hudson Institute and a senior China policy adviser to the Trump administration, told The Epoch Times. Yu noted that Xi has purged many high-ranking military officials to consolidate power during his 11-year rule.

“He knows there’s a lot of resentment within the military rank and file. So that’s why this issue has been very, very unsettling for him.”

Domestic issues will also keep Beijing on the alert, Chang said.

“The Chinese are always worried about color revolutions, as they say, and revolutions are contagious; they do spread,” he said.

Last November, a deadly blaze in a high-rise building in Xinjiang set off mass protests around the country. Demonstrators raised blank sheets of paper to push back against the regime’s harsh COVID lockdowns in what has been dubbed the white paper protests.

The movement subsided with Beijing lifting the pandemic restrictions while quietly rounding up participants. But behind those protests, Chang sees a broader spirit of discontent that isn’t going away.

“Some people actually were demanding the Communist Party and Xi Jinping step down,” he said, citing some of the slogans that protesters have chanted.

Protesters hold up a white piece of paper against censorship as they march during a protest against China’s strict zero-COVID measures in Beijing on Nov. 27, 2022. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

Economists had hoped that the end of the zero-COVID policy would spur China’s domestic spending and revitalize the country’s sagging economy. On many levels, though, the situation in China doesn’t look much brighter than it did half a year ago.

Local governments are facing defaults under a $23 trillion debt. Young people ages 16 to 24 have a record jobless rate of above 20 percent. And property sales have continued to plunge. The country is set to face what could be the world’s largest millionaire exodus this year, while a growing number of disillusioned individuals are also fleeing the country.

“There are no answers for Xi Jinping other than to clamp down even tighter, and that ultimately is not going to be a solution because the economy is falling away,” Chang said.

June Teufel Dreyer, a political science professor at the University of Miami, similarly sees the economic problems as a major hurdle.

“Putin may even be more dependent on China after the uprising, so China’s desire to lead the world order will be strengthened,” Dreyer told The Epoch Times. The economic slowdown will be the No. 1 issue that will get in the way of Xi realizing his ambition, she said.

For now, China and Russia will continue to be “huddling together for warmth” as they face off against the West, with each taking what it needs from the relationship, said Su Tze-yun, director of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research of Taiwan.

With the war in Ukraine dragging on, Russia will likely find itself growing more reliant on China, now a main buyer of Russian oil that once went to Europe.

It’s a juncture that requires more decisive action from the free world, Chang said.

“The world is at a critical moment, and right now the coalition that opposes us has cracked and could very well fall apart. It’s important for the Biden administration and free states to make sure that that coalition cannot be put back together,” he said.

Luo Ya contributed to this report.