What’s in Store at the Grocery Store for ’24? Food Inflation Ranging From 1 to 7%

A man checks an apple while shopping at a grocery store in Toronto on Nov. 22, 2022. (Reuters/Carlos Osorio)

An annual report that looks at food prices across the country predicts some relief for consumers in 2024.

Canada’s Food Price Report 2024 by Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University says that while prices will increase, it won’t be as dramatic as in previous years.

“Overall food prices will increase by 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent,” according to a news release published by the lab. That’s compared to the 5.9 percent customers saw this year, the report says.

“The estimated increase of 2.5–4.5 percent for 2024 provides customers with much-needed relief from the higher increases observed in previous years,” says Stuart Smyth, chair of Agri-Food Innovation and Sustainability Enhancement at the University of Saskatchewan, who took part in the study.

The report is the product of a partnership between researchers at Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. This is the 14th year the report has been released. It’s based on historical data sources, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools.

In 2024, a family of four can expect to spend around $700 more on food, for an annual cost of $16,297.20, according to researchers.

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“The most significant increases range from 5 percent to 7 percent in the categories of bakery, meat, and vegetables,” the report authors said.

“They should expect to see a degree of stability return to food prices. I am optimistic that the phrase ‘sticker-shock’ will become less commonly used throughout grocery stores in 2024,” Mr. Smyth said.

Food Cost Predictions for 2024

While prices for bakery, meat, and vegetables are expected to increase 5 to 7 percent, the cost of other food items is not expected to rise as much.

Seafood is predicted to increase between 3 and 5 percent. Fruit and dairy prices could increase between 1 and 3 percent, the report says.

But there could also be some price drops, the authors wrote.

“Our models also indicate that 2024 may witness a mild deflationary trend, resulting in lower prices for numerous essential food items.”

2023 One of the ‘Toughest’ Years

Researchers said that 2023 was a “tumultuous year,” which led to increases in food prices.

“The year 2023 posed significant financial challenges for Canadian families, one of the toughest in recent memory,” said Sylvain Charlebois, project lead, professor, and director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.

This year also saw a record number of food bank visits with a 78.5 percent increase since March 2019. In 2023, there were almost 2 million visits, the highest level on record, according to the press release.

Financial pressure on households saw a drop in spending on food, report authors said.

“Food retail sales data indicates a decline in monthly spend per capita between August 2022 and August 2023 (from $261.24 to $252.89). Estimated annual spending for a family of four in the past year was $693 lower than originally projected.”

Researchers said the reduction is concerning because it indicates “Canadians are decreasing the quantity and quality of food they are buying.”

An October poll found that 49 percent of Canadians are reducing their intake of meat protein, while 46 percent are consuming less fruits and vegetables. Moreover, 79 percent said they focused on reducing food waste, consuming leftovers, and repurposing ingredients.

Price increases varied across the provinces for 2023, with Prince Edward Island and Quebec seeing the highest rate at 6.7 percent. New Brunswick saw a 6.4 percent increase while food costs in Newfoundland and Labrador rose by 6.3 percent. Nova Scotia wasn’t far behind with a 6.2 percent increase in food costs. On the other side of the country, B.C. saw 5.9 percent price hikes in food, while Manitoba saw 5.7 percent. Ontario and Alberta tied for the second lowest price increase at 5.5 percent and Saskatchewan saw the least amount of increase at 5 percent.

Food items that saw the biggest increase in cost were bakery (8 percent), vegetables (7.6 percent), seafood (4.3 percent), and meat (4.4 percent). Dairy prices rose 4 percent and the price of fruits increased by 3 percent for 2023.

Canada’s Food Sector Loses Trust

Canadians have lost trust in food sector corporations, according to researchers.

“There is a prevailing sentiment that grocers profit excessively and exploit inflationary trends. Profiteering and price gouging were common media stories,” the Agri-Food release said.

One such incident saw Canada Bread admit to price fixing and agree to pay $50 million for the crime.

Researchers also noted that employees in the industry “felt empowered” and went on strike to demand higher wages and better working conditions, including at Sobeys, Metro Inc., Rogers Sugar Refinery, and Windsor Salt.

Unfortunately, these actions caused product shortages and shipping delays, the release said.

In October, a House of Commons committee called grocery executives to testify and share how they are helping fight food inflation.

The action came after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne met with executives from Loblaw, Metro, Empire, Walmart, and Costco in September to discuss stabilizing food costs.

“They have agreed to support the government of Canada in our efforts to stabilize food prices in Canada,” Mr. Champagne said at the time.

However, by mid-October, many grocers still had not committed to plans about how they were going to stabilize prices, despite the federal government stepping in and threatening to use tax measures to coerce cooperation.

By November, Ms. Freeland was calling for more competition in the food industry to combat higher prices.

There have also been calls for Canadian food companies to sign a code of conduct; however, many have yet to sign or even commit to signing.

The Canadian Press contributed to this report.