Alberta’s Population Could Eclipse BC’s in Coming Years, According to StatCan Projections

Pedestrians walk in Place Jacques-Cartier in Old Montreal on July 4, 2021. The Canadian Press/Graham Hughes

Alberta’s population could soon overtake that of B.C., according to new data released by Statistics Canada.

The report, Population Projections for Canada, released on Jan. 27 looked at 10 different scenarios for population growth in Canada.

In nine of those projections, StatCan found that the number of residents in Alberta would outnumber that of British Columbia in the coming years.

Alberta’s population is projected to reach between 13.5 percent and 16.1 percent of Canada’s by 2050, up from 12.1 percent in 2025, “surpassing British Columbia in all scenarios, except [one] medium growth scenario.”

In addition to Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan were also projected to see increases under all scenarios, StatCan said.

The report said that if recent trends continue over the long term, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Quebec will all see a decrease in their populations between 2025 and 2050 “under almost all scenarios.”

Ontario and Quebec will remain the “most populous provinces in Canada” over the next 25 years, according to all the projections. However, the population of Quebec, which was 21.7 percent of Canada’s in 2025, will drop to between 18.1 percent and 19.1 percent by 2050, according to the projections.

National Population Projections

Overall, Canada’s population is expected to reach between 44 million in a low-growth scenario to 75.8 million in a high-growth scenario by 2075. A medium-growth projection puts that number at 57.4 million by 2075.

StatCan said the number of those over 65 years of age within the total population is expected to increase from 19.5 percent in 2025 to 22.6 percent in a slow-aging scenario and 32.5 percent in a fast-aging scenario by 2075.

“The growth in the proportion of persons aged 65 and over would be less pronounced after 2030, when all baby-boomers will have reached or passed this age,” the report said.

It noted that the number of Canadian children has “greatly decreased” since 1962, when the number of children represented 34 percent of the population.

The report estimated the number of children in 2025 to represent 15 percent of the population, and noted that in nine of the 10 scenarios, the proportion of children decreases. In the slow-aging scenario, the proportion of children does not decrease, the report says.

StatCan says the number of people over the age of 85 years is forecast to “increase rapidly” in the coming years, particularly between 2031 and 2050 as baby boomers enter this age group.

The projections show that the number of Canadians aged 85 years and older are forecast to increase from 951,833 people to between 3.3 million and 4.2 million by 2075.

The average age of Canadians by 2075 is forecast to be between 43.4 years and 50.5 years, up from 41.8 years in 2025.

StatCan said that population projections are not predictions but rather exercises of what the population could look like “based on certain scenarios of evolution that seemed plausible when these projections were completed.”