Turkey Softens Stance on Syria After Decade of Hostility

Turkish soldiers and Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather on the northern outskirts of the Syrian city of Manbij near the Turkish border on Oct. 14, 2019. Turkey wants to create a roughly 20-mile buffer zone along its border to keep Kurdish forces at bay. (Zein Al Rifai/AFP via Getty Images)

ANKARA, Turkey—Turkey and Syria have remained bitter foes for the past 10 years, as the government in Ankara supports anti-government groups in Syria that the latter views as terrorist outfits.

But in recent weeks, Turkey has dropped a number of hints that it may be willing to open talks with Damascus.

Local analysts are skeptical, however, saying the complex nature of the Syrian theater dictates against a resumption of dialogue—at least in the short term.

“Turkey maintains a sizable military presence in Syria, and the United States, Russia, and Iran are all deeply enmeshed in the conflict,” Ilhan Uzgel, a Turkish political commentator and former professor of international relations, told The Epoch Times.

“Given the circumstances, rapprochement with Syria will be very difficult.”

Syrian Army soldiers stand close to a rocket-artillery vehicle on the front line with Turkey-backed fighters near the northern city of Manbij, on Nov. 2, 2019. (AFP via Getty Images)

While returning from a trip to Ukraine on August 19, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that there is a need “to take steps with Syria.”

“Diplomacy between states can never be entirely severed,” he added cryptically.

Four days later, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu went even further, saying there would be “no preconditions” for opening a dialogue with the government in Damascus.

Ankara severed ties with Damascus in March of 2012 as the conflict in Syria became increasingly violent. Since then, Turkey—along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and most Western states—has called for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Assad, however, has managed to remain in power, largely due to the ongoing support of Russia and neighboring Iran.

Since 2016, Turkey has carried out three military offensives into northern Syria, where it continues to maintain a large military presence. Ankara says the deployments are necessary to protect its 560-mile border with Syria from Kurdish militant groups operating in the region.

In recent months, Turkish officials have repeatedly stated that a fourth offensive is imminent, even as the United States, Russia, and Iran call for restraint.

“Turkey is hinting at opening talks with Damascus while simultaneously threatening to launch another offensive,” Uzgel said. “Erdogan appears to be telling regional actors that he can pursue a diplomatic course if he wants to—or a military one.”

‘Irreconcilable Differences’

Given the longstanding acrimony between Ankara and Damascus, the apparent change in tone surprises many observers.

“It was certainly unexpected,” Oytun Orhan, an expert on the region at Ankara’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies, told The Epoch Times. “The two countries continue to have seemingly irreconcilable differences.”

“The Turkish military remains deployed on Syrian soil, and the two sides continue to engage in occasional clashes,” he said.

In February 2020, fighting erupted between the Turkish and Syrian armies in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, resulting in casualties on both sides.

Syrian political figures, for their part, say that any future dialogue with Turkey must be preceded by a full withdrawal by the latter from Syrian territory.

“Turkey must withdraw from Syria. Once this happens, dialogue can begin,” Sharif al-Shahade, a former member of Syria’s parliament, told the Kurdish Rudaw Media Network on Aug. 22.

Al-Shahade, who is known to be close to Assad, describes the Turkish presence in Syria as an illegitimate “occupation.”

Allies Annoyed

But according to Uzgel, Turkey “has yet to signal a willingness to even consider withdrawing some—if not all—of its troops.”

Meanwhile, Ankara’s softening tone toward Damascus appears to have irked some of its allies in Syria.

On Aug. 11, Cavusoglu told diplomats in Ankara that Syria’s Turkey-backed opposition should eventually “come to terms” with the Assad government.

“Otherwise,” the foreign minister said, “there will never be lasting peace.”

He added that Syria needed a “strong administration” capable of resisting foreign attempts to divide the country—a reference to U.S.-backed Kurdish militant groups.

His comments sparked angry demonstrations in Turkish-held parts of Syria, where Turkey-backed opposition groups accused Ankara of selling them out.

“For years, Turkey has armed and supported these groups to fight the Assad regime,” Uzgel said. “So they felt betrayed by the foreign minister’s remarks and voiced their displeasure.”

Moscow Calling

Notably, the seeming shift in Turkey’s position on Syria first appeared following a pivotal meeting this month between Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin.

At the Aug. 5 meeting, held in the Russian city of Sochi, the two leaders agreed to step up cooperation in a range of fields, especially bilateral trade and energy. Putin also reportedly used the occasion to urge Erdogan to “cooperate” with Damascus in the fight against “terrorist groups” operating in Syria.

While Turkey and Russia back opposing sides in the Syria conflict, the Sochi meeting prompted some voices in the Western press to raise alarm bells about Ankara’s “deepening ties” with Moscow.

But Uzgel believes that Turkey’s softening position on Syria—whether prompted by Putin or not—“is more of a bargaining chip than a bona fide policy change.”

“Erdogan wants to show the West that he can have good relations with Moscow, Tehran, and even Damascus—a regime that’s intensely disliked by the United States,” he said.

Turkey, a longstanding NATO member, is “firmly in the Western camp,” Uzgel added. “But Erdogan wants to deliver the message that there are other options available.”