A new parliamentary report says the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) could grow to 900,000 participants by the end of the decade if current growth rates continue and governments do not intervene.
The Joint Standing Committee on the NDIS has released its final report following an extensive inquiry into the scheme’s integrity amid rising concerns about fraud and misuse of the system.
According to the report (pdf), the NDIS grew at a rate of 22 percent in 2022.
As of March 31, 2026, the scheme reported 774,456 participants with an annual cost of $50.7 billion (US$35.1 billion) over the 2025-26 financial year.
“Without intervention, the scheme is anticipated to grow to over 900,000 participants,” the report said.
The scheme began its national rollout in 2016 and then-reported a cost of $1.1 billion while supporting around 100,000 participants.
“The scale and distorted market structure of the NDIS are too often not providing high quality care to participants themselves. Costs are continuing to rise rapidly, driven by plan inflation and weaknesses in how the system currently operates,” the report said.
“If left unchecked, this puts the long-term sustainability of the NDIS—and its ability to support future generations—at risk.”
The rapid expansion of the scheme has prompted the federal and state governments to take action to curb its growth.
In 2023, the National Cabinet committed to bring NDIS annual growth to 8 percent by July 1, 2026. The figure was later revised to 5 to 6 percent in 2026.
In April 2026, Health Minister Mark Butler announced the Labor government’s intention to reduce the number of participants to around 600,000 by the end of this decade—less 160,000 individuals.
Following the release of the 2026-27 budget, the government introduced sweeping NDIS reforms aimed at slowing the scheme’s costs by tightening eligibility, introducing standardised functional assessments, strengthening anti-fraud measures, and overhauling planning and service delivery.
The reforms are expected to deliver about $37.8 billion in savings over four years.
Over 95 Percent of NDIS Providers Are Unregistered
The report also highlighted that only a small fraction of NDIS providers are registered.Of the 277,376 providers recorded as of March 31, 2026, only 17,717 were registered, while the remaining 95.5 percent were not.
Current laws do not require all NDIS providers to register; however, unregistered providers are restricted in the services they can offer.
“Unregistered providers can only deliver supports and services to participants who self-manage or plan-manage their NDIS funding. Unregistered providers must adhere to the Code of Conduct,” the report said.
Registered providers are subject to audits and assessments by the NDIS Commission and must meet stricter regulatory requirements, but they are permitted to provide a broader range of services.
These include services to those with NDIA-managed funding, plan management services, and specialist disability accommodation.
“Whilst provider registration alone doesn’t prevent fraud, it is an important integrity mechanism,” the report said, citing the Department of Health and other agencies.
“It enables appropriate oversight, monitoring and provider obligations that support the delivery of quality supports aligned to participants’ individual needs and rights.”
