44% Chance Canada’s Federal Debt Will Increase Over 10 Years: Study

Copies of the “2023 Fall Economic Statement” are seen in the media lockup immediately prior to the release of the statement, in Ottawa on Nov. 21, 2023. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

In a recent Fraser Institute study, experts raised concerns about the trajectory of Canada’s current fiscal policies, highlighting a significant chance of the federal debt increasing as a percentage of the economy over the next decade.

Titled “Adrift without an Anchor: Federal Fiscal Policy and Canada’s Long-Term Debt Ratio,” the study suggests a 44 percent likelihood that the net federal debt-to-GDP ratio will be higher in 2036–37, and a 59 percent chance it will be higher in 2046–47.