“The Winds of Winter,” slated to be “Game of Thrones” creator George R.R. Martin’s latest book, may not come out before the Season 5 ends.
The FiveThirtyEight website run by statistician Nate Silver attempted to predict–somewhat jokingly–when Martin’s book will be released.
It said that if he averages 300 words per day, Martin could get the book released by February 2015. If he wrote at half that–150 per day–the book would see an August 2018 release.
“If anything, this has been an exercise in the limits of statistical analysis. Understanding what data can and cannot do is just as crucial as being literate in the stats. Sure, we can make inferences, but the only thing this really comes down to is a genial man in Santa Fe, a harried editor in New York and a legion of international fans salivating so hard they’re beginning to dehydrate,” the website notes.
The website adds: “When will George R. R. Martin come out with the next book? I have no idea. The stats tell us essentially nothing. The good news for fans is that he’s in Santa Fe with a pretty clear schedule. The worst news is that my most promising finding is that he’s excited.”
According to the Washington Post’s analysis, Martin appears to be taking his time in writing the book, but he’s actually doing quite well compared with other fantasy authors including “Harry Potter” author JK Rowling.
“Since his third book, Martin’s pace has been consistent – nearly 200 paperback pages’ worth per year. Martin has said that he expects the final two books in the series to be about as long as A Dance with Dragons, at 1,500 manuscript pages each, or about 1,150 paperback pages. If his pace continues, we can use the magic of linear interpolation to predict that we should see Winds of Winter come out some time in 2017,” the Washington Post says.
It adds that with the same model, “A Dream of Spring” would be released in 2023. If that happens, Martin will be 75 years old.