Will the CCP Take Advantage of the Russia-Ukraine War and Attack Taiwan?

A demonstrator holds a placard during a rally against Russia's invasion of Ukraine outside a Moscow representative office in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 1, 2022. Ann Wang/Reuters

Commentary

Most people are watching Russia attempt to force Ukraine to surrender to Moscow’s will. Our spirits rise when we finally see NATO and the United States start to send arms to allow the Ukrainians to bloody the Russian bear.

These weapons include extremely accurate anti-tank weapons such as U.S.-made Javelins and U.S.-made anti-aircraft man-portable Stinger missiles. These weapons are wreaking havoc on the Russian behemoth much to Vladimir Putin’s chagrin, much as the Stinger missiles caused huge casualties while the Soviets were in Afghanistan.

At the same time this is occurring, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his communist expansionist comrades are taking fastidious notes. The effectiveness of these comparably inexpensive weapons by a defending army are most likely shaking the spirit of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Why?

The PLA was hoping that the Russian advance and takeover of Ukraine would have been swift like the Nazi blitzkrieg of World War II. This has not occurred. Instead, the Ukrainian fighters are causing a lot of destruction not only of the Russian weapon systems, but also killing a lot of Russian soldiers—even though the Russians undercount and the Ukrainians overcount the numbers. Nevertheless, the numbers will come out and they will be very bad for the Russians.

However, amongst this Ukrainian good news, there lies a suspicion among many China watchers that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could use the current turmoil in Ukraine—with all of Europe and North American allies focused on supporting the Ukrainians—as an opportunity to order the PLA to invade Taiwan.

Why are the Chinese troops waiting?

At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war on Feb. 24, the U.S. Navy had four navy battle groups in the vicinity of Taiwan, with over 70 ships in the Seventh Fleet. It appeared that the United States was reminding the CCP not to take advantage of the European war by invading Taiwan.

According to USNI news, as of March 7, there are still three battle groups in the Western Pacific with 67 ships assigned to the Seventh Fleet: Abraham Lincoln CSG is operating in the Philippine Sea; America Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is operating in the East China Sea; and the Ronald Reagan CSG is in port in Yokosuka, Japan, conducting its annual winter maintenance.

This is a strong presence and sends a solid message to the CCP to carefully consider its options, while the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea has just the Truman Carrier Strike Group with 30 ships, some of which are monitoring the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Now is the time to send a clear message to China that the United States will continue to dissuade the CCP from aspiring to order a PLA invasion of Taiwan and its islands. We have a unique opportunity to make a change in our posture toward an ever more belligerent Chinese regime. For example, the Chinese military announced this week that the PLA Navy would be conducting a naval exercise, including in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), from March 4 to 15.

China's "nine-dash line" claims in the South China Sea. United States Central Intelligence Agency

This is a violation of the Vietnamese EEZ and provides the CCP with a legal precedent (also known as lawfare) to demonstrate that its nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea (SCS) is valid and it will continue to act as if the disputed territory belongs to China, regardless of any rulings by the Permanent Court of Arbitration. In 2016, the tribunal ruled that in the case of the Philippines’ Scarborough Shoal, China had violated the Philippines’ EEZ by its behavior.

The obvious question is: why doesn’t the PLA Navy conduct the naval exercise in its own EEZ?

Because the Chinese communists want to demonstrate that the SCS is theirs, thus again demonstrating their belligerent expansionism.

Based on the Ukrainian experience, it appears that the Taiwanese Armed Forces (also called the Republic of China Armed Forces) should invest heavily in anti-tank and anti-air missiles. This is a very good tactic if the PLA is able to land its forces and begin to operate on land.

In addition to these missiles, Taiwan should also invest heavily in anti-ship missiles and missile defense systems, especially to avoid the suffering caused by the Russian missile attacks that were conducted against the Ukrainians. Many of Taiwan’s allies around the world build these types of missile systems and could provide them to supplement what Taiwan has and continues to produce. For example, here is a partial list of Taiwan’s order of battle:

• Missile defense missiles: Sky Bow I, II, and III, and U.S. PATRIOT PAC-3.
• Anti-ship missiles: Hsiung Feng (Brave Wind) III, and AGM-84A Harpoon.
• Anti-air missiles: RBS 70, FIM-92A Stinger, Mistral-1, Avenger, M48 Chaparral, and Sky Sword I.
• Anti-tank missiles: Javelin, AT-4, Apilas, and a variety of TOWs.

Now is the time for NATO, Japan, South Korea, and other Taiwan allies to send a sufficient number of the above types of systems to Taiwan that sends a message to the CCP to desist from its desire to conquer the island.

Instead of waiting for an actual attack and by sending these defensive systems to Taiwan, the Taiwanese military can train on these systems and be prepared for any future contingency, especially if the PLA is able to blockade any weapons shipments during a future conflict. The intent here is to say: see what happened to Russia? You don’t want to repeat its blunder. Stay away from Taiwan and let it be.

A concern is that few countries will do this for fear of Beijing’s wrath. That is exactly what the CCP wants all countries to believe and to not take any action now, or in the future, to interfere with its Taiwan invasion. This concern is further buttressed by the fact that NATO and Ukrainian allies’ stores of these weapons are heavily depleted, especially the anti-tank and anti-air systems.

In another area, it appears that this is evident. The Polish government has MiG-29 aircraft that the Ukrainians know how to pilot and Poland wants to give them these combat aircraft. However, to prevent Poland from being exposed to Russian aggression, the Polish government requested that the United States replenish the MiG-29 aircraft with F-16s.

Why is this a problem?

Because the F-16s that are available to send to Poland are the ones that the United States planned to sell to Taiwan. In other words, the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the more weapons are needed to help the Ukrainians and the less weapons are available to assist Taiwan in case of a PLA invasion.

Compiled about 1,500 years ago, the “Thirty-Six Stratagems” has been used as a guide for warfare for many, including the CCP. “Loot a burning house” is the fifth stratagem and refers to the concept that the best time to take advantage of your enemy is when your enemy is down or at a disadvantage. In the case of the free and independent country of Taiwan being the CCP’s enemy, we must deter the CCP from considering this option.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.