Commentary
Many pundits around the world commented on the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) exercise conducted in August 2022 following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan. Most commentators observed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was waiting for an excuse to have the PLA Air Force, rocket forces, cyber forces, and Navy flex its muscle near Taiwan.
Why and When Will the CCP Order the PLA to Conduct Another Exercise?
Many U.S. government officials have postulated that the PLA will invade within several windows of opportunity, such as the recent comment by the Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday who said on Oct. 19, 2022: “When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or a potentially a 2023 window. I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that, it’s just that we can’t wish that away.”Almost no one is discussing the next time the PLA will conduct another aggressive military exercise near Taiwan as they had done in August.
Several elections are coming up in the next few weeks. How would a PLA exercise affect those elections?
US Elections
The U.S. election will occur on Nov. 8. China favors political parties that it can manipulate. For example, Professor Di Dongsheng, associate dean at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, he said the following (pdf) in a speech on Nov. 28, 2020:
Di is also a member of a think tank that is closely affiliated with the International Liaison Department of the Chinese Communist Party, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The Democrats are facing the prospect of losing control of the House and Senate in the November elections. Would a PLA exercise prior to the U.S. midterm elections assist or hurt the Democrats? The Democrats took advantage of public support for Taiwan when Pelosi and other congressmembers visited Taiwan. Following their trip, Congress considered pro-Taiwan legislation such as the Taiwan Policy Act, sections in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, as well as President Joe Biden’s four mentions of American military support of Taiwan, most recently in a 60 Minutes interview on Sept. 18:
“But would U.S. forces defend the island?” Biden was asked. “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack,” he replied.
“So unlike Ukraine, to be clear, sir, U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?”
“Yes,” the president answered.
American voters are not currently concerned about Taiwan; they are concerned about the rising cost of living (gas, food, housing, and transportation), rising crime because of the open border, and the threat of the radical left agenda, especially on children. Recall that Bill Clinton’s campaign manager James Carville said President George H. W. Bush lost the 1992 election—after winning the 1991 Gulf War—because his campaign did not focus on issues that concerned the public—“it’s the economy stupid!”
What public opinion impact might a PLA exercise conducted after the U.S. congressional elections but before Taiwan’s elections on Nov. 26?
Taiwanese Elections
The Taiwanese electorate will vote for local representatives, county magistrates (city mayors), county (city) councilors, and chiefs of villages in six municipalities and sixteen counties/cities. These officials would serve a four-year term. This election is much like the U.S. midterm elections and is a potential preview of the 2024 election where the Taiwanese citizens will decide who will replace President Tsai Ing-wen (Democratic Progressive Party [DPP]). This election has the potential to give the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT) insight into popular issues and persuasive campaign themes.
Would a PLA Exercise Before the Taiwan Elections Help the Political Opposition?
Many Taiwanese took note and became very concerned when Gilday said the timeline for a PLA invasion could be as soon as late 2022 or 2023. I have met several concerned Taiwanese who have asked me my opinions about Gilday’s statement.First, Gilday would never say anything so political without the consent and guidance from Biden and his National Security Staff. Second, given the timing of the comment (Oct. 19), three weeks before U.S. elections and slightly more than a month before Taiwan’s elections, the message certainly alarmed the Taiwanese people.
The KMT’s current political message to Taiwan’s population is that the DPP is driving the island nation to war while the KMT is the party of peace and stability with communist China. This argument is foolish because the 1992 Consensus that the KMT continues to promote eventually makes Taiwan a province of China, not an independent country. In early 2019 after a speech by PRC President Xi Jinping, President Tsai noted that Taiwan has “never accepted the ‘1992 Consensus.’ The fundamental reason is that the Beijing authorities’ definition of the ‘1992 Consensus’ is ‘one China’ and ‘one country, two systems.’”
KMT Leadership Visits PRC During PLA Exercise Targeting Taiwan
On Aug. 10, the KMT Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia (夏立言) visited the PRC immediately following Pelosi’s visit and during the PLA military exercise surrounding Taiwan which involved launching missiles over Taiwan’s island and capitol, Taipei. Hsai who traveled with former legislator Kao Su-po (高思博), a brother-in-law of KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), claimed the visit’s purpose was to meet Taiwanese businessmen and was not political. Nevertheless, Hsai and his delegation met several CCP officials, including PRC’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS, 海協會) Chairman Zhang Zhijun (張志軍), and Taiwan Affairs OfficeDeputy Director Chen Yuanfeng (陳元豐).The Taiwan government’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) heavily criticized the visit, especially when PLA military were conducting offensive military exercises that demonstrated their intent to use violence to change the political situation in Taiwan. The MAC stated: “We believe that the KMT trip to mainland China has unsettled Taiwanese society, divided domestic will of unity, and sent wrong signals that mislead the international community to the serious detriment of the nation’s overall interests.”
Historical CCP Attempts to Interfere With Taiwan’s National Elections
The CCP has attempted to interfere in Taiwan elections by various means, through United Front and Ministry of State Security efforts that include the following types of warfare: diplomatic, psychological, cyber, political, media, economic, intelligence, legal, military intimidation, and many others.
The CCP last attempted a major military intimidation during the 1996 elections when they tried to convince the Taiwanese electorate to not vote for President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). Lee was the first president to be elected by the Taiwanese people after the end of martial law. In 1995, the CCP launched missiles at Taiwan due to the CCP’s dismay at Lee’s speech at Cornell (his alma mater). The CCP launched additional missiles just prior to elections in 1996 in order to persuade the Taiwanese electorate to vote against Lee because of his nationalist stance. Taiwanese overwhelmingly voted for Lee.
US Statements Further Confusing or Agitating Taiwan’s Population
U.S. political, military, and economic elites have assisted (intentionally or unintentionally) in further agitating or confusing the Taiwanese population by making the following statements:- March 2021: Admiral Davidson, former Indo-Pacific Command Commander stated in Congressional testimony that the PLA could invade Taiwan by 2027.
- Sept. 18: Biden made multiple statements on supporting Taiwan in case of a military conflict with the PLA. His staff and the Department of State walked back each of his statements.
- Oct. 7: Elon Musk, whose Tesla plant in Shanghai produces a large amount of Tesla’s total production, made a political statement regarding China and Taiwan: “My recommendation ... would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy … And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.” His statement also signaled that his Starlink company that assisted Ukraine during its war with Russia might not be available for Taiwan. Twenty-five percent of Tesla’s total global revenue comes from China, which is Tesla’s second-largest market.
- Oct. 19: Gilday’s PLA invasion timeline (2022–23) statement.
- Oct. 26: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statements that the CCP was trying to “speed up” the timeline for the seizure of Taiwan.
PLA Exercise Effect on the Taiwanese Elections
Will the PLA conduct a military exercise before the Taiwan elections to increase the Taiwanese people’s anxiety about the CCP’s intentions and discredit the DPP? The following CCP/PLA provocative actions occurred recently:- Aug. 4–15: PLA exercise which included 11 missiles fired at five target areas surrounding Taiwan and many other aggressive actions in multiple domains such as sea, cyber, space, air, and land.
- Aug. 10: CCP released the blustering White Paper on Taiwan called “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era”
- Oct. 16–22: Xi’s troubling comments about Taiwan during the CCP’s 20th Congress.
Post-Taiwan Election PLA Exercises
If the CCP was smart, they might wait until after the Taiwanese elections to conduct another intimidation military drill to avoid the failed political manipulation they attempted in 1996. Just as with the Pelosi visit, the CCP will look for an excuse to conduct the next exercise which they had planned for well before her visit. However, their arrogance and the nationalist desire to takeover Taiwan might make them believe that they are impervious to world sanction and will with a military exercise at the most advantageous opportunity.What to Do?
Taiwanese understand that the CCP through the PLA will continue to conduct military operations that attempt to erode their confidence in the Taiwanese government. This article attempts to better inform Taiwanese and friends of Taiwan regarding CCP machinations and PLA actions.If the PLA conducts additional missile firings and other military exercises prior to the Taiwanese elections, the CCP expects these actions to influence Taiwanese citizens to vote in favor of the opposition.
Let us hope, as during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995-6, that by the PLA conducting military drills around the island, the opposite of the CCP’s expectations occurs: Taiwanese support greatly enhanced defense spending, national resilience, and readiness for war.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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