The first of cycling’s 2012 Grand Tours, the Giro d'Italia started Sunday and will continue through 21 stages and 2160 miles of racing to its finale in Milan on May 27. Riders will have spent five stages climbing mountains, six on hills, and contested seven sprint stages plus three time trials by the time they reach the end.
There are two rest days in the 23-day calendar, Tuesday May 8 and Monday May 21. Those rest days are much farther apart than usual, which means the riders will be more tired when they hit the first big mountain stages.
Here is a quick look at what to expect between rest days.
Stage Five, 199 km from Modena to Fano has a handful of climbs, including a Cat 4, in the final forty kilometers—just enough to strain but not really drain the pure sprinters. On top of that the final kilometer slopes upward—possibly a lesser-known but stronger power sprinter might beat the pure speed sprinters here—it’s a Thor Hushovd/Oscar Friere kind of finish.
Stage Six, 207 km from Urbino to Porto Sant'Elpidio, has fifteen climbs though only four are categorized—Cat 3, Cat 2, Cat 3, and a Cat 3. This is a non-stop up-and-down stage—a great stage for a breakaway if it came later in the race but likely too many riders will be too fresh to let a breakaway escape.
Stage Seven, 202 km from Recanati to Rocca di Cambio—another medium mountain stage with a Cat 3 and a Cat 2 climb. The Cat 2 comes in the last 15 km; the last three kms descend are uphill then short downhill finish but the final 1500 meters climb at 5.7 percent. One could hope for attacks on the cat 2 climb, and unless one rider has escaped from the peloton, one would expect more attacks in the final 1500 meters.
Stage Eight, 229 km from Sulmona to Lago Laceno, is long and lumpy with a Cat 4 climb early, a lot of stacked uncategorized climbs in the final third, and as Cat 2 climb in the final 15 km. The last five km are downhill, but the battle will be on the last climb.
Stage Nine, 171 km from San Giorgio nel Sannio to Frosinone, is listed as flat, but it has a few hills particularly at the end. The final two km are uphill, which will test sprinters and their leadout trains. The sprinters’ teams will want this one—it will be their last chance until stages 11, 13 and 18, when they will be much more tired. No breakaway will survive here.
Stage Ten, from 187 km from Civitavecchia to Assisi, is a lumpy stage with a Cat 4 uphill finish—a double-hill finish, in fact. The final four kilometers start with a climb with a grade of over 13 percent, a quick descent and then the final Cat 4 which hits 10.4 percent in the middle and falls off to 5.6 percent. The climbers will need a rest after this one.
Stage 11, 243 km from Assisi to Montecatini Terme, is called a very long flat stage despite a Cat 3 and Cat 4 climb. The cat 4 peaks 11 km from the finish, leading to a long shallow descent with an uphill kick in the final kilometer. This will again test the sprinters—timing and positioning will make all difference.
Stage Twelve, 157 km from Seravezza to Sestri Levante, starts flat but has four climbs—Cat 4,3,2,3—spaced evenly through the final 100 kilometers. The Cat 2 Valico la Mola, peaking 35 km from the finish, will either be the site if some fierce attacks, or some very fast-paced riding, as t4eams try to wear each other out for the final Cat 3 climb. The final 11 km are a quick descent. A breakaway might be able to stay away on this stage, or at least some members of a break.
Stage 13, 121 km Savone to Cervere, is another “flat” stage, although it has Cat in first quarter and a lot of little lumps. The last ten km are slightly uphill, but since the stage is short, the sprinters should be ready for it.
Stage 14, 205 km from Cherasco to Cervinia, is a really tough climbing stage; a pair of Cat one climbs with a mountaintop finish—there could be a serious selection here. This would be a great place for GC contenders to open gaps; look for a high pace on the first climb and attacks on the second, a 27 km, 6-percent ascent. Sadly, the contenders might rest on this stage to save their legs for the next day.
Stage 15, 172 km from Busto Arsizio to Lecco/Pian dei Resinelli, is the second big mountain stage of the Giro, and falls right before a rest day. With four categorized climbs—Cat 1, Cat 3, Cat 2, and a Cat 2 mountaintop finish, coming after the killer climbs of Stage 14, this could be an important stage. Any GC contender feeling tired could lose a lot of time here. Attacks could come on the first Cat 2 climb, Culmmie di San Pietro; this would be a great place to challenge the GC leaders.
Anyone who cracks on the fist Cat 2 climb might have a chance to catch up on the ten-km descent, but renewed attacks on the final climb should leave a lot of riders behind. The final climb is only eight percent (flattening to six in the final kilometer,) but after such a long stage and two weeks of riding, it should be enough to at least weed out any weaker contenders.
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