Way-Too-Early Glance at 2024 US Senate Races Gives GOP Clear Path to Take Chamber

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), here speaking to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington in September 2021, is 77 years old and pondering retirement rather than seeking a third term in West Virginia in 2024, a state Republicans otherwise dominate. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

With the first United States’ 2024 presidential primary slated for South Carolina on Feb. 3, elections forecasters are already posting way-too-early projections on Congressional races even before candidates in many contests formally launch campaigns.

But when it comes to the U.S. Senate, it’s less prognostication than math in acknowledging Republicans are favored to do what eluded them in 2022 and capture the chamber next cycle.

There will be 34 Senate seats on ballots across the nation in November 2024 with 23 now held by Democrats. While races for as many as eight of those seats are expected to be competitive, only two of the 11 now held by Republicans are projected to be so.

According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball initial 2024 U.S. Senate race ratings, Democrats will be defending seats in three states—Montana, Ohio, West Virginia—won by former President Donald Trump, and in another five narrowly won by President Joe Biden in 2020.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), here speaking during a March 2022 Senate Banking Committee hearing, is expected to face a stiff GOP challenge in his 2024 quest for a fourth term in increasingly red Ohio. (Tom Williams/AP)

Among Democrat incumbents who will face what are expected to be strong GOP challenges, or at least well-funded campaigns, are West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, and Montana’s Jon Tester.

Sabato’s initial 2024 Senate race ratings posted on Jan. 24 also lists Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, as potentially vulnerable.

Sabato’s preliminary Senate race assessments were preceded by similar Inside Elections’ initial ratings posted on Jan. 6, which identified the same eight Democrat-held seats as potentially vulnerable in 2024.

“Meanwhile, no Republican senators are up for reelection in states that Biden won,” Inside Elections writes. “It’s the first time in recent memory that one party doesn’t have a single vulnerable Senate seat on the initial battlefield.”

Of course, as Sabato’s notes, Republicans were favored to take the Senate in the 2022 elections but ended up actually losing a seat to give Democrats a two-vote cushion in the chamber.

The last two times this cycle of Senate seats were on the ballot—2012 and 2018—Sabato’s maintains Democrats were also “overexposed” but “basically held the line in both cycles, netting two seats to expand their majority in 2012, and then losing just two net seats” in 2018.

“Despite the Democrats’ level of exposure, we view the overall [2024] race for the Senate as a ‘toss-up,’” Sabato’s projects. “Republicans have a ton of opportunities but the burden of proof is on them to produce capable candidates after they just had a terrible slate in 2022.”

Breakdown of Key 2024 Senate Races

West Virginia: A Democrat not named Joe Manchin would have a difficult time winning an election in a state Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020, and with the two-term incumbent reportedly pondering retirement, the most competitive 2024 Senate race could be in the GOP primary.

One Republican has thrown his hat into the ring: Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.V.). Gov. Jim Justice said earlier in January he is “very seriously” considering a run while Patrick Morrisey, the first Republican to ever serve as the state’s attorney general, is also regarded as a potential strong contender.

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown has already launched his campaign for a fourth term in a state that has become increasingly red since he won his first election 12 years ago.

State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a moderate who finished third in Ohio’s 2022 GOP Senate primary won by now Sen. J.D. Vance, has already announced he will run. Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also said to be among potential Republican challengers.

Montana: Democrat Jon Tester has not announced if he will seek a fourth term in deep-red Montana where the moderate retains good approval ratings and where Republican voters have sent 14 Democrats to the Senate compared to just five Republicans since 1900.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who as state auditor unsuccessfully challenged Tester in 2018, and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), Trump’s first Secretary of the Interior, are among Republicans reportedly pondering 2024 Senate runs.

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, here in 2019 when she was a Democrat before becoming an Independent, could be embroiled in a three-way race in 2024 in seeking a second term. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo)

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema is no longer the Democrat she was when first elected in 2018 but still caucuses with the party and could be embroiled in a three-way race in 2024.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) has formally declared his Senate candidacy and there are a host of Republicans that could also enter the race. Among them: failed gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, defeated Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson.

Michigan: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is not seeking a fifth term, leaving her seat wide open in this hugely contested purple state that will be a prime GOP target in. 2024. There are no announced candidates but among Republicans reportedly pondering a campaign is John James, who lost by slightly more than 1 percentage point to Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) in 2020.

Nevada: In another purple state that featured one of 2022’s closest Senate battles won by incumbent Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) over challenger Paul Laxalt, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nevada) has announced she will seek a second term in 2024. A Republican challenger has not surfaced but some speculate Laxalt could mount a second run at the Senate.

Pennsylvania: Republicans lost a seat, and the Senate to a Democratic majority when Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was elected in 2022 to succeed the retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.).

Up for a fourth term in 2024 is Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.), the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Robert P. Casey, Sr., a moderate who may not only face a strong yet-declared GOP candidate, but a challenge from the Left in the Democratic primary.

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is seeking a third term in a purple state where nail-biters are standard with 2024 likely to stay true to form, although no GOP challengers have as yet entered the race.