Warren Takes Lead Over Biden in Recent Polls

September 30, 2019 Updated: September 30, 2019

News Analysis

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in California over former vice president Joe Biden in the Democratic presidential primary election race, according to recent polls.

A monthly tracking poll for California’s March 2020 Democratic primary election shows Warren as the frontrunner for the first time and Biden dropping to third place, trailing Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

The CA120 poll shows Warren leading with 29 percent of the vote among likely voters followed by Sanders with 21 percent, Biden with 18 percent, California Senator Kamala Harris with 11 percent and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg with seven percent.

Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac University national poll released Sept. 25 shows Warren with a two percent lead over Biden. Warren received 27 percent of the vote, with Biden at 25 percent, according to the poll, which surveyed 561 Democrat voters and independent voters who lean towards the Democratic Party from Sept. 19-23.

This poll marks the first time any contender in the Democrat presidential primary race has surpassed Biden nationwide since March 2019, when Quinnipiac began asking questions about which candidate Democrat supporters would vote for in the 2020 primaries.

The poll pegs Sanders at 16 percent, Buttigieg at seven percent and Harris at three percent.

“After trailing Biden by double digits since March in the race for the Democratic nomination, Warren catches Biden,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. “We now have a race with two candidates at the top of the field, and they’re leaving the rest of the pack behind.”

In August, the Quinnipiac poll showed Biden at 32 percent, Warren at 19 percent, Sanders at 15 percent, Harris at seven percent, and Buttigieg at five percent.

Many have speculated whether Warren’s ascendancy to Democratic frontrunner is purely based on merit or can be at least partially attributed to Biden’s dismal performance.

Biden’s campaign has been losing steam with a series of recent televised gaffes, including comments such as “we choose truths over facts” and “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He also incorrectly suggested that he was vice president during the Parkland Shooting in 2018 and grabbed the arm of a young woman who asked for clarification after Biden declared there are at least three genders.

Two months after his father launched his campaign, Hunter Biden’s struggles as a recovering cocaine addict and alcoholic were revealed in The New Yorker.

The article mentions Peter Schweizer’s book, “Secret Empires: How the American Political Class Hides Corruption and Enriches Family and Friends,” which details Hunter’s activities in China and Ukraine.

None of Biden’s recent campaign blunders are as troubling as the accusations of a shady business deal in which the Chinese government allegedly donated $1.5 billion to Bohai Harvest RST (BHR), a private equity firm with Hunter Biden on the board.

Another private equity firm founded by Biden received $3.4 million from Ukrainian energy company Burisma Holdings, according to a Fox News report.

Schweizer said on Mark Levin’s TV show, Life, Liberty & Levin on Sunday that Hunter Biden was paid $83,000 a month to sit on Burisma’s board of directors as an adviser and consultant, even though he had no background in energy. This deal is at the center of the whistleblower complaint that led to renewed calls for Trump’s impeachment by House Democrats.

Meanwhile, Warren has attempted to bury her own political faux pas over her nebulous claims of Native American ancestry, which earned her the infamous nickname “Pocahontas” by then-candidate Donald Trump. Warren was accused of falsely claiming she was Native American to help land a prestigious job as a university professor.

Perhaps motivated by President Donald Trump’s merciless mocking, Warren doubled down on her claim by taking a DNA analysis, which only added to the embarrassment. In October 2018, she released the DNA report that was said to have found that a pure Native American ancestor appeared in her family tree “six to 10 generations ago.”

In February 2019, Warren’s 1986 registration for the State Bar of Texas surfaced, revealing that she had identified her race as “American Indian,” and she later apologized for her claims to tribal heritage.

In 2017, California legislators moved up the state’s primary election by three months to the first Tuesday in March to allow more time for candidates to campaign in the state before the Nov. 3, 2020 presidential election. Super Tuesday presidential primaries are slated for March 3, 2020 in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The fourth Democratic debate will be held Oct. 15 at the Otterbein University campus in Westerville, Ohio. It will be will be co-hosted by CNN and the New York Times.

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