War With China Is ‘Not Inevitable’: US Admiral

U.S. Admiral John C. Aquilino (L), commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, is welcomed to New Zealand with a traditional Powhiri, Guard of Honor, and Last Post Ceremony, at Wellington, New Zealand, on Aug. 1, 2022. (U.S. Embassy & Consulate in New Zealand)

A catastrophic conflict between China and the United States for the future freedom of Taiwan is not yet inevitable, according to the commander of the U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific.

Despite numerous military provocations in the waters surrounding Taiwan, China’s communist regime can still be deterred from launching a full-scale invasion of the democratic island, said Adm. John Aquilino, who heads the U.S. military’s Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM).

“War is not inevitable, and it’s not imminent,” Aquilino said during an April 18 hearing of the House Armed Services Committee. “However, this decade presents a period of increased risk.

“Conflict in the Indo-Pacific is not inevitable. But we cannot rest on our past accomplishments to secure a peaceful future.”

Aquilino pointed to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) de facto alliance with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and its increasing willingness to support destabilizing actions from powers like North Korea and Iran, as evidence of the ongoing challenge posed by the regime.

“Two large authoritarian nations coming together in an attempt to change the world order in ways that are beneficial to authoritarian governments [as opposed to] the rest of the world,” Aquilino said. “That’s a pretty concerning space to be in.”

Competition, not complacency, would be key to deterring a conflict in the coming years, he added.

US Preparing for Anything From China

With that competition in mind, Aquilino said that his command “is ready and prepared for any contingency” in the Indo-Pacific, but that communist Chinese forces frequently made regional security matters worse through their refusals to communicate with the U.S. military.

Indeed, for nearly two years, Aquilino said, the regime’s officers have refused to communicate with him.

“I have had a standing ask to meet with the Eastern Theater commander and the Southern Theater commander from the [Chinese military] for my entire time in this job, and they have yet to accept it,” Aquilino said.

The revelation that CCP forces cut communication nearly two years ago adds new nuance to the ongoing struggles between the two nations’ militaries in the region.

Last August, the CCP announced retaliatory measures against the United States and its partners following former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Key among those measures was the cancellation of communications between U.S. and Chinese military commanders in the Indo-Pacific.

The move was seen at the time as a major escalation that reduced the two militaries’ ability to avoid miscommunication or harmful accidents. Aquilino’s comments, however, shed light on the fact that the two nations have been operating a similar, if more limited, communications blackout for much longer.