Since Thomas Voeckler won the race leader’s yellow jersey in Stage Nine of the 2011 Tour de France, the experts have been waiting for the Europcar rider to pass the jersey on to one of the established favorites. Yet here it is Stage 16, and Voeckler looks like he could keep it indefinitely.
The 32-year-old Frenchman, riding in his eighth Tour de France, seemed to get stronger with each stage in the Pyrenees. In Stage 14 he matched the best in cycling pedal-stroke for pedal-stroke on the climb up to Plateau de Beille.
The common wisdom is that all the big-named General Classification contenders are saving their best for the Alps, planning to make all-out attacks on the Galibier and Alpe-d’Huez. There is another possibility—that none of these riders is significantly stronger than the rest.
Everybody is expecting one or another to launch an explosive attack that drops all the rest. What if none of them can launch such attacks? What if all the top riders can cover each other’s best efforts?
In that case, we might see Thomas Voeckler maintain his lead all the way to Paris.
The 32-year-old Frenchman, riding in his eighth Tour de France, seemed to get stronger with each stage in the Pyrenees. In Stage 14 he matched the best in cycling pedal-stroke for pedal-stroke on the climb up to Plateau de Beille.
The common wisdom is that all the big-named General Classification contenders are saving their best for the Alps, planning to make all-out attacks on the Galibier and Alpe-d’Huez. There is another possibility—that none of these riders is significantly stronger than the rest.
Everybody is expecting one or another to launch an explosive attack that drops all the rest. What if none of them can launch such attacks? What if all the top riders can cover each other’s best efforts?
In that case, we might see Thomas Voeckler maintain his lead all the way to Paris.
Lance Armstrong Weighs In
Lance Armstrong, who, with seven Tour victories, probably knows his stuff, tweeted during Stage 14, “If Voeckler makes it to the top w/ the leaders today then we have to say he can win the TdF. He’s got 2 mins and they can’t shake him.”
After the stage Armstrong tweeted: “He wasn’t ‘swinging off the back’ 2day. He was 1 of the strongest. The others weren’t assertive and/or aggressive enough 2 make a selection.”
So far the French rider has managed to withstand the strongest attacks of his more famous competitors. If he can hang on through the Alps, he will then face a more difficult test: Stage 20, the final time trial.
Alberto Contador is a consummate time trialer, but he is four minutes back, and has shown no sign of being able to erase that. Cadel Evans is two minutes back, and equally skilled at the time trial. Neither of the Schlecks is particularly good at time trialing, though Andy turned in a great performance in 2010, to finish second overall.
France has not had a Tour winner since 1985—that alone will motivate Voeckler to great efforts. Further, the course is not suited to a pure time trialer. With its two sizeable hills, the course suits a power rider, an all-rounder; Voeckler will have a great chance to maintain at least some of his margin.
Again Lance Armstrong agrees. “He has 2:06 on Evans. Final TT is 42km. He’s French. It’s the Tour de FRANCE,” tweeted the seven-time champion. “He won’t lose 2:06 in the final time trial ASSUMING ... He keeps them close on Alpe d’Huez.”
After the stage Armstrong tweeted: “He wasn’t ‘swinging off the back’ 2day. He was 1 of the strongest. The others weren’t assertive and/or aggressive enough 2 make a selection.”
So far the French rider has managed to withstand the strongest attacks of his more famous competitors. If he can hang on through the Alps, he will then face a more difficult test: Stage 20, the final time trial.
Alberto Contador is a consummate time trialer, but he is four minutes back, and has shown no sign of being able to erase that. Cadel Evans is two minutes back, and equally skilled at the time trial. Neither of the Schlecks is particularly good at time trialing, though Andy turned in a great performance in 2010, to finish second overall.
France has not had a Tour winner since 1985—that alone will motivate Voeckler to great efforts. Further, the course is not suited to a pure time trialer. With its two sizeable hills, the course suits a power rider, an all-rounder; Voeckler will have a great chance to maintain at least some of his margin.
Again Lance Armstrong agrees. “He has 2:06 on Evans. Final TT is 42km. He’s French. It’s the Tour de FRANCE,” tweeted the seven-time champion. “He won’t lose 2:06 in the final time trial ASSUMING ... He keeps them close on Alpe d’Huez.”
Armstrong has a special insight into the abilities of Thomas Voeckler. In 2004, Armstrong chased Voeckler up the Plateau de Beille, the same slope where this year’s GC contenders couldn’t drop him. In 2004, Voeckler beat Armstrong to the top to keep the yellow jersey—as he did in 2011.
The only question is how much more Thomas Voeckler has in his tank. This is a seasoned rider, at the peak of his career, in the best form he has ever shown. Equally important, he has a wingman, Pierre Rollande, who has led Voeckler up the toughest hills.
Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, and Alberto Contador have been making the climbs solo. The Schleck brothers have been helping each other, but at the end, only one of them has had the legs in any given stage. Pierre Rolland has been there every time to get Voeckler to the front.
Motivated by the thought of yellow in Paris for his homeland, guided by his French teammate, riding for a French team in the greatest sporting event in France … it does not seem far-fetched to imagine that Thomas Voeckler might continue to surprise the experts right onto the Champs Elysees.
The only question is how much more Thomas Voeckler has in his tank. This is a seasoned rider, at the peak of his career, in the best form he has ever shown. Equally important, he has a wingman, Pierre Rollande, who has led Voeckler up the toughest hills.
Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso, and Alberto Contador have been making the climbs solo. The Schleck brothers have been helping each other, but at the end, only one of them has had the legs in any given stage. Pierre Rolland has been there every time to get Voeckler to the front.
Motivated by the thought of yellow in Paris for his homeland, guided by his French teammate, riding for a French team in the greatest sporting event in France … it does not seem far-fetched to imagine that Thomas Voeckler might continue to surprise the experts right onto the Champs Elysees.
Next...The Competition
The Competition
So far, all of the top riders except Cadel Evans have shown weakness at some point in the Tour.
Cadel Evans, Australian leader of American team BMC, has covered every move, and even launched a couple of attacks of his own—as in Stage Four, when he beat Alberto Contador across the finish line. Evans, 2:06 behind the French race leader, will need to attack decisively in the Alps.
Cadel Evans, Australian leader of American team BMC, has covered every move, and even launched a couple of attacks of his own—as in Stage Four, when he beat Alberto Contador across the finish line. Evans, 2:06 behind the French race leader, will need to attack decisively in the Alps.
The one complaint fans have had about Evans in the past is that he had not been sufficiently aggressive. This year he has attacked twice—but he might be saving his effort for the Alps, or he might be hoping he can make up two minutes in the time trial.
Either way, the Aussie rider is in incredible form. He has never looked tired, has never failed to ride down an attack (though not always immediately). He also has never shown the kind of spark that could launch him past the competition.
Either way, the Aussie rider is in incredible form. He has never looked tired, has never failed to ride down an attack (though not always immediately). He also has never shown the kind of spark that could launch him past the competition.
The Schleck brothers, Andy and Fränk, joined the all-Luxembourg Leopard Trek team for 2011, and would love to lead it to victory in the Tour. The bothers have long dreamed of sharing the podium. In 2009, Fränk was a bit off the pace; in 2010, he broke his collarbone in Stage Three. Fränk, at 31, is getting close to the later phase of his career; if he wants to win, he needs to do it soon, and he has never had a better shot.
Brother Andy, at 26, is just entering his prime. Andy didn’t look good in the Tour of California, and only had two-thirds of a good day in the Tour de Suisse. The younger Schleck could only manage a single feint of an attack in Stage 12; he looked tired through the final third of the climb, while brother Fränk made three attacks, eventually gapping the peloton to take the win.
Andy looked fine in Stage 14, while Fränk looked to be feeling the effects of his effort in Stage 12. Andy attacked several times, but—he couldn’t get away from the rest. He wore himself out for no gain.
Ivan Basso of Liquigas is another veteran who needs to get his Tour win soon if ever. This 33-year-old Italian rider has looked good so far, but he has managed only one attack, which Thomas Voeckler marked every move immediately. The longer, flatter climbs of the Alps might better suit Basso’s style, but three minutes down in fifth, the Italian rider needs to make magic in the Alps. Maintaining the pace won’t get him onto the podium.
Andy looked fine in Stage 14, while Fränk looked to be feeling the effects of his effort in Stage 12. Andy attacked several times, but—he couldn’t get away from the rest. He wore himself out for no gain.
Ivan Basso of Liquigas is another veteran who needs to get his Tour win soon if ever. This 33-year-old Italian rider has looked good so far, but he has managed only one attack, which Thomas Voeckler marked every move immediately. The longer, flatter climbs of the Alps might better suit Basso’s style, but three minutes down in fifth, the Italian rider needs to make magic in the Alps. Maintaining the pace won’t get him onto the podium.
Finally, there is Alberto Contador. A three-time Tour winner, now riding for the Saxo Bank squad, Contador was seen as the superman of cycling—until the 2011 Tour.
Contador lost 80 seconds in Stage One, getting caught up in crashes that left the experts wondering why he was in the back of the peloton instead of up front where the rest of the GC contenders easily avoided the problems.
Then Contador got beat on a climb by Cadel Evans in Stage Four. Alberto Contador was the undisputed King of the Climbers. Everyone who follows cycling has images of Contador simply riding away from the field up some of the steepest climbs in the world, seemingly effortlessly.
Yet here was Contador failing to catch Cadel Evans on a climb. And in Stage 12, he couldn’t keep up with the leaders; the great Alberto Contador was off the back of the lead group at the end of the final climb.
Contador then had more crashes, one of them possibly injuring his knee. No one but the Spanish rider can be sure. But what can be considered, is whether the defending champion has hurt his spirit.
Can Alberto Contador, down four minutes with only two really severe mountain stages left, still harbor hopes of winning the Tour? Can he dig down and give his best, knowing that he will need two days’ worth of miracles just to have a chance in the final time trial?
Some people thought that 2011 might be the Year of Contador—that he would do the impossible, and win all three of cycling’s Grand Tours. Now the question is, does he even have a chance at the podium?
There are other riders who are in good shape to win a stage in the mountains: Samuel Sanchez, Damiano Cunego, and Jelle Vanendert, who is making the most of his first Tour. But none of these riders are threats for the top step of the podium; they are too far back, and are not known as great time trialers. Of course, any of them could deliver a surprise, but three or four minutes is an awful lot of make up in just a few stages.
Right now, it looks like the 2011 Tour de France comes down to who will last the longest of the top five riders, and barring accident or injury, Cadel Evans looks to be the safest bet.
Cadel Evans is the safe bet; but Thomas Voeckler is not a long shot any more. All he needs are two more good days of climbing and one inspired time trial, and France will rejoice as it has not since the days of Bernard Hinault.
Thomas Voeckler has a good shot at standing on the highest step of the podium in Paris next Sunday
Contador lost 80 seconds in Stage One, getting caught up in crashes that left the experts wondering why he was in the back of the peloton instead of up front where the rest of the GC contenders easily avoided the problems.
Then Contador got beat on a climb by Cadel Evans in Stage Four. Alberto Contador was the undisputed King of the Climbers. Everyone who follows cycling has images of Contador simply riding away from the field up some of the steepest climbs in the world, seemingly effortlessly.
Yet here was Contador failing to catch Cadel Evans on a climb. And in Stage 12, he couldn’t keep up with the leaders; the great Alberto Contador was off the back of the lead group at the end of the final climb.
Contador then had more crashes, one of them possibly injuring his knee. No one but the Spanish rider can be sure. But what can be considered, is whether the defending champion has hurt his spirit.
Can Alberto Contador, down four minutes with only two really severe mountain stages left, still harbor hopes of winning the Tour? Can he dig down and give his best, knowing that he will need two days’ worth of miracles just to have a chance in the final time trial?
Some people thought that 2011 might be the Year of Contador—that he would do the impossible, and win all three of cycling’s Grand Tours. Now the question is, does he even have a chance at the podium?
There are other riders who are in good shape to win a stage in the mountains: Samuel Sanchez, Damiano Cunego, and Jelle Vanendert, who is making the most of his first Tour. But none of these riders are threats for the top step of the podium; they are too far back, and are not known as great time trialers. Of course, any of them could deliver a surprise, but three or four minutes is an awful lot of make up in just a few stages.
Right now, it looks like the 2011 Tour de France comes down to who will last the longest of the top five riders, and barring accident or injury, Cadel Evans looks to be the safest bet.
Cadel Evans is the safe bet; but Thomas Voeckler is not a long shot any more. All he needs are two more good days of climbing and one inspired time trial, and France will rejoice as it has not since the days of Bernard Hinault.
Thomas Voeckler has a good shot at standing on the highest step of the podium in Paris next Sunday
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