Veterans Affairs Overestimated Veteran Numbers by 34%: Memo

Veterans march for the National Remembrance Day Ceremony at the National War Memorial in Ottawa on Nov. 11, 2022. (The Canadian Press/Justin Tang)

Data from the 2021 census shows that the number of veterans is 34 percent lower than previous estimates by Veteran Affairs Canada (VAC), according to a federal document. The federal department says the overestimation has no impact on its government-funded programs.

In a March 20 briefing note, VAC responded to questions about why the 2021 census counted 461,240 veterans—approximately 34 percent lower than the department’s own 2021 estimation of 617,800 veterans. The issue was first reported by Blacklock’s Reporter.

VAC said in the briefing note the discrepancy has no impact on the department’s function.

“VAC does not generally use broader Veteran population figures for operational planning. We rely on actual program intake and service utilization data to develop forecasts and plans,” the department said, adding the discrepancy in numbers “was not entirely unexpected” because it had been making estimates based on data from the 1971 Census and “other national surveys.”

“This means that the difference between Census counts and VAC’s population estimates does not have a direct impact on VAC operations.”

The government website that reports on VAC’s operations said over 90 percent of the department’s budget “represents payments to Veterans, their families and other program recipients.”

Budget 2023 allocates $156.7 million to veterans over five years, starting in the 2023–24 fiscal year, and then $14.4 million annually to the VAC, the RCMP, and the Veterans Review and Appeal Board. The federal funding aims to reduce backlogs and support service delivery across several programs and services.

Erika Lashbrook Knutson, spokesperson for Veterans Affairs Minister Lawrence MacAulay, said that VAC funding is not tied to the census count.

“As the majority of Veterans Affairs Canada’s funding is quasi statutory in nature ... budgets are based on how many eligible individuals are forecasted to come forward for support through 25 separate VAC programs in any given year and not on the overall Veteran population in the country,” she told The Epoch Times in a July 17 email.

Ms. Knutson confirmed that prior to 2021, VAC based its estimates on the number of veterans on Statistics Canada’s 1971 Census, the 1988 Labour Force Survey, and the 2003 Canadian Community Health Survey. The department also updates its estimates annually using information from the Department of National Defence and survival rates from Statistics Canada life tables.

“While the 2021 Census data on Veterans does not impact the departmental budget, it will help the department better tailor programs to the needs of Veterans of various communities, like Indigenous Veterans, women Veterans, and underemployed Veterans,” she said.

The 2021 census marks the first time in 50 years that questionnaires asked, “Have you ever served in the Canadian military?” The short-form survey was sent to every household in the country, according to the briefing note. The question was included at the request of the veterans department, which said it was trying to gain a clearer picture of the broader population of Canadian veterans.

In a 2009 report, titled New Veterans Charter Evaluation, VAC acknowledged it had more employees managing fewer veterans programs than the United Kingdom and Australia. The Canadian department had 3,700 staff who provide service to 220,000 clients; the UK and Australia both had 2,100 employees, and each served 900,000 and 415,000 clients respectively.

Citing the 2021 census, the briefing note said that nearly 84 percent of veterans are male with an average age of 62. More than 33,400 of the veterans were age 85 or older. Most of the former military members are found in the following cities: Belleville (4.5 percent), Halifax (4.4 percent), Kingston (four percent), Fredericton (3.8 percent), and Saint John (3.5 percent).