Will Trump’s 2024 Gains Among Latinos Hold in the Midterms?

Democrats seek to capitalize on slipping support among Latinos for Republicans over immigration and cost of living concerns.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's supporters rally in the historically Democratic district of the South Bronx on May 23, 2024, in New York City. The Bronx is home to a large Latino community. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

No Republican presidential candidate in modern history won a larger share of Latino voters than President Donald Trump did in 2024. Edison Research’s national exit poll found Trump took 46 percent of Hispanic voters, up from 32 percent in 2020.

AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press, put his share at 42 percent, up from 35 percent. A Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters, released in June 2025, estimated Trump won 48 percent, nearly reaching parity with former Vice President Kamala Harris—the 2024 Democratic nominee.