White House Economist Predicts ‘Biggest Refund Cycle Ever’ During 2026 Tax Season

‘A lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of’ this year, the economist said.

Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett speaks with reporters outside of the West Wing at the White House in Washington, DC on Dec. 16, 2025. Andrew Cabllero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

The White House’s National Economic Council director predicted the largest-ever tax “refund cycle” in 2026 as several measures included in a congressional spending bill that passed earlier this year are set to go into effect.

“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks,” National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business on Thursday. “We’re expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple-thousand-dollar refund.”

“A lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of” 2025, he also said.

He added that “people will see it in their wallets” at the end of the second Trump administration, saying that “we didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer,” referring to the Trump administration-backed tax and spending bill that includes a number of tax breaks and other economic-related measures.

Since elections were held last month, the White House has made a priority of focusing on the U.S. economy, with President Donald Trump often talking about providing dividend-related payments to Americans and tax breaks.

The president is set to travel to North Carolina on Friday seeking to convince Americans that his handling of the economy is sound ahead of a midterm election year that could challenge Republicans’ slim majority in Congress.

Democrats have accused Trump of bungling the economy, which is one of the main issues he campaigned on last year, while the president has said Democrats’ criticism of his administration regarding affordability is unfounded.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wrote on X that the president’s comments on Wednesday “showed he lives in a bubble completely disconnected from the reality everyday Americans are seeing and feeling,” adding that Americans “are feeling squeezed harder and harder every day.”

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that his administration has had “tremendous success.”

“We inherited a mess, and part of what we inherited was the worst inflation in 48 years. And now we’re bringing those prices down. I'll be talking about that.”

Also during his address, Trump announced a $1,776 bonus payment to soldiers that he called the “warrior dividend” and again said that his administration is projecting “the largest tax refund season of all time” in the spring.

“Nobody deserves it more than our military,” he said of the bonuses, saying they were derived from tariffs that he imposed earlier this year—another key component of his economic agenda.

Trump received some good news on Wednesday as the Labor Department released its Consumer Price Index report for November, which said housing costs were up by the smallest margin in four years and food costs rose by the least since February. Egg prices also fell for a second month, and by the most in 20 months.

Next year’s tax season is set to start on Jan. 28, 2026, and end on April 15.

Reuters contributed to this report.