Virginia Governor Race Enters Home Stretch

Both sides say the race is consequential. For Republicans, it’s about continuing on the right path. For Democrats, it’s about setting an example to defy Trump.

(Left) Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, answers questions in Buena Vista, Va., on Sept. 1, 2025. (Right) Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, attends a festival in Buena Vista, Va., on Sept. 1, 2025. Win McNamee/Getty Images

FALLS CHURCH, Va.—Both gubernatorial candidates in Virginia made the case to turn out the vote during the last weekend before Election Day on Nov. 4.

For Republicans, it’s about taking what they see as the right path for the Commonwealth. For Democrats, it’s about defying President Donald Trump’s agenda.

“We can choose to either go down the right fork, where there’s light, or the left fork, where there’s dark,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin said during a Saturday stump speech for Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, lieutenant governor of Virginia.

Going down the right fork means “chasing common sense, conservative values,” he told the attendees at Patrick Henry College in Purcellville. The city is located in Loudoun County, which hosts strong Republican support.

A few hours earlier, Earle-Sears’s opponent, former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, held a rally in Norfolk with former President Barack Obama.

“You will set a glorious example for the nation,” Obama said at the rally, highlighting a potential Spanberger win as a strong message to denounce the policies and the “coarse and mean culture” of the current Trump administration. He told supporters that the “Make America Great Again” agenda was a power grab for the ruling class.

Hampton Roads, including the cities of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, is crucial for Republicans due to its large population, which is second only to northern Virginia, a stronghold for Democrats. Key cities in this area in the southeastern part of the Commonwealth turned more red in the last gubernatorial race, propelling Youngkin to victory with a narrow margin of less than 2 percent.

Earle-Sears is currently lagging behind Spanberger by double digits in most polls, although the latest poll by Christopher Newport University estimated the gap at 7 percent. The Republican nominee has a rally scheduled in Virginia Beach on the eve of Election Day.

‘Uphill Climb’

Ron Wright, cofounder of the Suburban Virginia Republican Coalition, describes the race as an “uphill climb” for Earle-Sears.

Virginia has a historical pattern of voting against the party of the incumbent in the White House. Except for the 2013 election, in which a Democratic candidate won the governorship in Richmond following President Barack Obama’s reelection, Virginians have elected a governor from the party opposite the sitting president’s since the 1970s.

Winsome Earle-Sears, Lt. Governor of Virginia and the Republican candidate for governor, campaigns in Purcellville, Va., on Nov. 1, 2025. Terri Wu/The Epoch Times

In addition, unlike Youngkin, who put $20 million of his own money into his gubernatorial campaign to match his opponent’s war chest, Earle-Sears is running her race with half the money Spanberger has, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a Richmond-based nonprofit organization.

She won the lieutenant governor’s race four years ago despite a similar financial disadvantage, but this time she doesn’t have Youngkin’s coattails to ride.

“You’ve got the combination of history, where the opposite party usually wins in Richmond, and the lack of money,” Wright told The Epoch Times, adding that the lieutenant governor had previously said Trump shouldn’t run again. “It’s never one thing.”

After the 2022 midterms, Earle-Sears called Trump a “liability” and said he should “step off the stage.” The president has yet to formally endorse Earle-Sears. Trump’s official nod matters to Republican voters in rural Virginia, Wright said.

Despite narrowing the gap by half in 2024, Trump lost the Commonwealth by more than 5 percent. Virginia hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 2004.

The timing of the government shutdown is another challenge for the Republican candidate, Wright added. Some Virginians might not have received their paychecks on October 29, a federal payday, and might direct their frustration toward Republicans.

More than 300,000 civilian federal workers reside in northern Virginia, and that number doesn’t include employees of federal contractors, according to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama speaks as Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger (L), a former Congresswoman, sits next to him during a campaign rally in Norfolk, Va., on Nov. 1, 2025. Win McNamee/Getty Images

A Vote Against Trump

Richmond-based veteran political analyst Bob Holsworth thinks the race will be a “comfortable Spanberger win,” given the anti-Trump sentiment in the populous parts of Virginia.

“She has run a very competent, professional campaign. It hasn’t been a campaign of what I'd call inspiration necessarily,” Holsworth told The Epoch Times. “She just needs to make sure voters come out.”

Obama’s message of electing Spanberger to denounce Trump seems to resonate with the Democratic base.

“Everything needs to change. Our country is being poorly represented. I think this administration is an abomination, a threat to our democracy,” a retired business manager in her 60s, who preferred to stay anonymous, told The Epoch Times. “I don’t like this country right now.”

The resident of Great Falls voted early in person on Saturday. She said her vote was very much a vote against Trump.

Drew Saunders, a voter of Loudoun County, in Purcellville, Va., on Nov. 1, 2025. Terri Wu/The Epoch Times

Drew Saunders, who also voted for Spanberger on the same day, told The Epoch Times that he was “very concerned” about the “government shutdown and other actions taken by the Republicans.” He lives in Purcellville and works for a federal contractor. When asked to name a strength of Spanberger, Saunders said she is a “technocrat,” and her experience in the federal government could help.

Kori Volger, a voter of Loudoun County, in Purcellville, Va., on Nov. 1, 2025. Terri Wu/The Epoch Times

Kori Volger, a restaurant manager in Loudoun County, said Earle-Sears would align herself closely with Trump.

“Just feel like there’s a lot of very radical things going on in the world right now, and I don’t support Donald Trump,” Volger told The Epoch Times.

When asked if any part of her decision was for Spanberger, the 33-year-old voter said she hoped Spanberger could “bring people together.” She noted, however, that it would be a difficult achievement, saying, “It just seems like everyone’s so divided right now that it’s hard to say if anybody will.”

The Jay Jones Factor

In October, National Review published a story about Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for Virginia attorney general. In the texts sent in August 2022, Jones, a former state delegate, wrote to a Republican delegate about shooting Todd Gilbert, a former speaker of the House of Virginia, and in writing also wished death on Gilbert’s two young children.

Jones has since apologized, but didn’t exit the race. Spanberger said the texts were “absolutely abhorrent,” but didn’t call for him to withdraw his candidacy.

According to the latest Christopher Newport University poll, three-quarters of Virginia’s likely voters have heard about Jones’ texts; the texts cost him about 6 percentage points of voters compared to the defending incumbent, Attorney General Jason Miyares. They are now tied in the polls.

The polls show that the governor’s race hasn’t been affected as much. Meanwhile, unlike the Republicans, Spanberger has not been campaigning shoulder to shoulder with the other Democratic candidates.

In Holsworth’s view, Earle-Sears has yet to lock on to a strong campaign issue.

“She started off with no car tax, then it went on to anti-trans,” he said, referring to her ads against allowing boys in girls’ locker rooms and sports. “Then, it went to Jay Jones. But there’s been no sort of affirmative message for Winsome Sears at all.”

By contrast, he added, Spanberger has run a “very disciplined focus campaign talking about affordability.” However, he cautioned that governors have “sometimes limited” capacity to reduce costs in electricity or health care.

The issues of school policies for transgender students resonate with the Republican base, especially in Loudoun County, where the school board has kept a highly controversial policy to allow students to participate in sports and use bathrooms according to their self-identified gender.

A Loudoun County government employee who preferred not to disclose her name told The Epoch Times that she voted for Winsome Earle-Sears, saying, “My main reason was to protect my children.” She declined to elaborate. Her two daughters attend a public elementary school.

Brian Luwis, a voter from McLean, Va., at an early voting station in Great Falls, Va., on Nov. 1, 2025. Terri Wu/The Epoch Times

Brian Luwis, a business owner living in McLean, said he voted for Earle-Sears because of her pro-life stance. He called Jones’ texts “dangerous rhetoric” and said he voted for Miyares as a result.

The abortion issue is a decisive one for some voters on each side. Virginia’s current laws allow abortions up to 26 weeks, or the second trimester, in pregnancy—and beyond that if three physicians certify that the pregnancy endangers the life of the mother.

A proposed Virginia constitutional amendment would permit abortion in the third trimester if a physician determines it is necessary to protect the mother’s life or health, or if the fetus is deemed nonviable. It passed both chambers of the state legislature, which is controlled by Democrats, during the 2025 session.

A constitutional amendment must pass two consecutive legislative sessions in Virginia to take effect. It doesn’t require the governor’s signature, but rather voters’ affirmation. All seats in Virginia’s House of Delegates are also up for election on Nov. 4. Polls indicate that the Democrats are likely to keep their majority in the lower chamber.

The Commonwealth has more than six million registered voters; their party affiliations are not captured by the Department of Elections. According to the Independent Voter Project, survey results indicate that over half identify as Democrats, one-third as Republicans, and the rest as independents.

In-person early voting ended on Nov. 1. More than a million voters have cast their ballots early. As of Oct. 22, the Virginia Public Access Project estimated a 200,000-vote lead by likely Democratic voters.