Politicos nationwide are watching Virginia’s General Assembly elections on Nov. 7 as a bellwether for the 2024 presidential primaries, which begin three months later.
Analysts would have to sift through data after Election Day to tell what the Virginia races portend for the 2024 elections elsewhere. But one thing is certain right now: The state’s 2023 General Assembly campaign spending will double or triple the record-setting pace in 2019.
The political industry has long watched how bellwether commonwealths’ voters cast ballots in state legislature elections every four years in November before the Iowa January presidential caucuses for potential trends.
Virginia’s 2023 General Assembly elections are no different. According to FiveThirtyEight, Virginia “has the only highly competitive state legislature” in the nation right now. Thus, in the 2023 elections, “only Virginia looks to see much drama.”
On Virginia’s Nov. 7 ballot are all 100 seats in the House of Delegates, now led 52–48 by the Republicans, and all 40 seats in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a 22–18 advantage.
Several patterns are surfacing in Virginia—the economy, abortion, and education are top issues; voter enthusiasm is lagging compared with 2020 or even 2022, but that could change; and campaign spending, especially by “outside” national groups, is soaring.
A $300 Million Election?
More than 1 in 4 Virginians rated the economy as their top issue, followed by inflation, abortion, and K–12 education, according to a Wason Center/Christopher Newport University survey conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 11.Republicans and independents both ranked the economy and inflation as the top two issues. Democrats said their top issue was campaigning against Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban.
In what could be a warning for candidates supporting the 15-week abortion ban, only 39 percent of the 800 poll respondents backed it.
The poll confirms that no one knows what will happen on Nov. 7. Forty-two percent of the respondents said they would vote Democrat, 41 percent said they would vote Republican, and 17 percent said they were undecided.
Of course, turnout is key. There are indications that turnout could reflect a similar, if less prominent, pattern to that of Louisiana’s Oct. 14 “jungle primary.”
Despite that races for governor and eight proposed constitutional amendments were on the ballot, turnout was the lowest for a Bayou State election in a dozen years in the fall 2023 election. Democrats in particular weren’t engaged.
If Virginia’s early-voting trends stay true, turnout may fall to or short of the 42.4 percent who voted in 2019’s General Assembly elections, far below the 75 percent who cast ballots in 2020.
But with the state allowing same-day registration and voting via provisional ballot since 2022, there could be a surge beyond the 6.1 million Virginians registered as of Oct. 1.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) and analyses by OpenSecrets and the Virginia Center for Investigative Journalism (VCIJ), more than $54.5 million had been raised by 443 General Assembly candidates and 543 state-registered PACs through Sept. 12.
More difficult to tally is the millions pouring into state political action committees (PAC) and issue-orientated entities by national organizations. Under Virginia law, 501(c)(4) nonprofits aren’t required to disclose donors.
The general consensus is that about $100 million will ultimately be directly spent by campaigns, PACs, and interest groups by Nov. 7, more than double 2019’s General Assembly election spending. Some estimates peg 2023-directed election spending since 2019 between $200 million and $300 million, double if not triple spending in the 2015–19 cycle.
‘Outsiders’ Spending Big
Through mid-September, Democrats were out-raising Republican opponents in the most competitive House and Senate district races.In the Senate, Democrats raised $8.1 million and Republicans $4.9 million. In the House, Democrats raised $7.5 million and Republicans $5.7 million.
The 543 state-registered PACs reported nearly $28 million in contributions by mid-September. Among them is Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC, which reported contributing $3.8 million to Republican campaigns between July 1 and Sept. 15.
The PAC had raised more than $12 million by mid-summer. During an Oct. 16–17 “Red Vest Fundraiser” hosted by the governor, donors kicked another $4.4 million into Spirit of Virginia’s kitty.
Mr. Youngkin isn’t merely backing Republicans financially but also on the trail, busing statewide to stump for candidates and his “moderate” 15-week abortion ban. He may not be on the ballot, but his proposed conservative agenda is.
Other state-registered PAC donations through Sept. 15 include Dominion Energy, $2.4 million; Clean Virginia Fund $3 million; Planned Parenthood Virginia $1 million; and League of Conservation Voters $800,000.
Virginia’s Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC has contributed $1.4 million to campaigns, while Democrats are receiving nearly $4 million from national organizations.
The Democratic National Committee has committed $1.5 million, including $1.2 million between July 1 and Sept. 15, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has kicked in at least $2.2 million.
But that’s not the real story. The real story is that these numbers are only part of the story.
According to OpenSecrets, the VCIJ, and the VPAP, unaccountable “dark money” that falls below the state’s disclosure requirements is matriculating into state-based PACs from large individual donors and national organizations who see Virginia’s Nov. 7 election as a dress rehearsal for 2024 tactics and strategies.
Americans for Prosperity, the conservative Koch-founded nonprofit, has pumped more than $1 million into 17 Republican campaigns, with two GOP Senate candidates receiving nearly $221,000 and $179,000, respectively.
The American Federation for Children, which spent $9 million on 2022 state elections lobbying for school choice candidates, had contributed about $400,000 to its Virginia chapter for select candidates in June’s primary and is expected to match that in the general election in lobbying for school choice
Forward Majority Action, Fair Democracy’s nationwide PAC, has distributed at least $241,000 to mostly Democrats running in House races. In June, the group received $2.5 million in donations, including $535,000 from billionaire hedge fund manager Stephen Mandel, for Virginia’s elections.
