China will take its aggressive territorial posturing on the Earth to the moon if it can defeat the United States in the new lunar race, according to a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
In his report, Mr. Galbreath pointed out that, unlike NASA, China’s space program is controlled by its military, the People’s Liberation Army. He also pointed to a 2015 remark by the head of China’s lunar exploration program—when the official compared the moon to disputed islands in the Western Pacific—as an indication that China’s approach to the moon and other space regions will be “confrontational” based on “territorial claim, clandestine weaponization, and regional access denial.”
“The United States and its partners must succeed and establish a more constructive future in cislunar space than that offered by China,” he said during the online event, noting that the cislunar space and beyond “should not be viewed territorially” like China is viewing it.
Instead, the cislunar space and beyond “should be for the common use for all humanity,” according to Mr. Galbreath.
Mr. Galbreath said China has “expanded territorial claims” and adopted “covert militarization, coercive diplomacy, and aggressive behavior” in the Western Pacific.
“We cannot see that type of behavior extend to the lunar environment,” he said.
“The potential implication of China establishing the practices they have demonstrated in the South China Sea to the moon is not in the interest of the United States and the growing list of Artemis Accords partners.”
Implications
A section of the report explains what the moon offers and why the United States and its allies need to “win the new race to the moon.”Economic factors matter, the report states, pointing out that there are deposits of rare-earth minerals, elements such as platinum and lithium, and Helium-3 on the moon.
The idea of making a profit by sending large amounts of rare earths from the moon to the Earth “is currently dubious,” according to the report.
“However, these elements will be essential components of spacecraft that could be constructed in space and become the enablers of a future lunar economy,” the report reads.
The moon and the cislunar environment also offer opportunities for scientific studies, the report states, such as the lunar far side, known as the shield zone, which is suited for radio astronomy given the area is free from Earth’s radio frequency interference.
“Another example of scientific interest is craters, particularly at the South Pole of the moon, that have never seen sunlight and, as a result, could possess a billion years’ worth of history about the formation of the solar system trapped in the rock and ice,” the report reads.
There are also military factors, considering that the cislunar environment “does offer a means to conduct military operations impacting the space systems and services indispensable to terrestrial operations,” according to the report.
“It is also possible to leverage the moon’s gravity to maneuver weapons to attack satellites in geosynchronous orbit and below,” it reads.
During Wednesday’s online event, Jim Bridenstine, who was NASA administrator from April 2018 to January 2021, compared the five Lagrange points to oceanic gateways around the world.
“Those [Lagrange] points are going to be very valuable choke points as the Strait of Hormuz is a valuable choke point in the United States Navy,” Mr. Bridenstine said, before adding the Strait of Gibraltar and the Strait of Malacca. “These are areas where if the wrong people control these very important points, it has huge strategic implications for the United States.
Recommendations
Once China establishes infrastructure on the moon, the report suggests that China could try to “limit other nations’ communications or other activities” near its facility.“For example, China could establish a ‘scientific’ station in an area rich in lunar ice and require a keep-out zone to not interfere with their scientific research, thus effectively commandeering that region and the resources in it for their use while denying access to other nations,” the report reads.
Mr. Galbreath offered many recommendations in his report to the Department of Defense (DOD), Congress, the U.S. Space Force (USSF), and the U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM).
“The DOD must establish an infrastructure for the cislunar regime, extending the types of services and capabilities currently in operation closer to Earth, such as space domain awareness, high bandwidth communications, and cislunar navigation technologies,” the report reads.
“The DOD should also detail specific military objectives it intends to achieve. This may include goals like assuring safe operations at Lagrange points or unfettered access to the lunar surface.”
Mr. Galbreath suggested that Congress needs to increase the USSF’s annual budget by an average of $250 million for new responsibility associated with “emerging national interests on the Moon.”
“Modest, early investment will simultaneously accelerate United States and allied efforts and reduce the future need for larger investments to overcome an advantage ceded to China,” the report reads.
USSF and USSPACECOM need to establish doctrine, a concept of operations and requirements to “accelerate the race to the moon and secure interests there,” another recommendation reads.
According to the report, the USSF must develop a cade of cislunar experts, invest in cislunar research and development efforts, and rapidly transition research and development activities into operational capabilities.
“Failure to act now will limit future options, create an unsustainable precedent in the cislunar environment, or even surrender U.S. leadership in space and weaken U.S. leadership globally.”
