Experts say China’s communist regime is positioning itself to exert influence above the Arctic Circle through an alliance with Russia. They warn that the United States must take steps to protect its interests before it’s too late.
“America cannot afford to fall behind,” said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute.
Mr. Coffey testified before the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security on July 18.
He and the other witnesses said Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has impacted the world in ways even the Russian leadership may not have anticipated. One of those consequences was in the Arctic States Council.
According to Esther D. Brimmer, senior fellow in Social Governance with the Council on Foreign Relations, the Arctic States Council is a cooperative of the eight nations with a presence in the Arctic. They are the United States, Russia, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Canada, and Iceland.
The council does not deal with military or security issues.
Ms. Brimmer said the council makes its decisions by consensus. It has approved three legally binding agreements.
They are the Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic (2011), the Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic (2013), and the Agreement on Enhancing International Arctic Scientific Cooperation (2017), she said.
When it invaded Ukraine, Russia was in the midst of its two-year turn as council chair. In response, the other seven members stopped cooperating until Norway took over the chairmanship in May 2023.
The formerly neutral countries of Finland and Sweden requested to join NATO. According to Mr. Coffey, Finland was admitted in April 2023, and Sweden is expected to be approved soon. This means that Russia would be the only non-NATO council member.
With 20 percent of its gross domestic product dependent on the Arctic, and more than 2 million Russians living there, a diplomatically-isolated Russia will be looking for international partners. China has indicated a willingness to help. According to Mr. Coffey, it’s not difficult to determine why China is so interested in the Arctic.
“In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and almost one-third of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves are in the Arctic,” Mr. Coffey said.
Most of those resources are in Alaska and the Russian territories.
In addition, the Arctic Ocean is considered a rich resource for commercial fishing.
The Chinese regime has a large fishing fleet that has demonstrated a complete disregard for international law and customs, Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), subcommittee chairman, said.
“They are raping the oceans,” he said.
Mr. Gimenez said the Chinese will look for an entrée to fish the Arctic Ocean. Mr. Coffey agreed. He said China has made no bones about its intentions, attempting to insinuate itself into the Arctic by referring to itself as a “near Arctic State,” which Mr. Coffey calls a “made-up term.”
“There have been many unintended consequences from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Arctic is no exception,” he said.
Russia also hopes to capitalize on the Northern Shipping Route (NSR), touted as competition for the Suez Canal. The NSR allows quicker access to some European and Asian ports from the north. Russia hopes to control the lanes and even charge for its use.
Coffey said that few ships have taken advantage of the NSR since the invasion, and no international vessels have used it. In addition, the French navy has sailed a few “freedom to navigate” patrols to assert its rights to sail there.
Ronald O’Rourke, a naval specialist with the Congressional Research Service, said the United States must adequately fund the U.S. Coast Guard if it wants to protect its interests in the Arctic.
He pointed out that the Coast Guard has only two 60-year-old polar class heavy icebreakers, and one of them is not seaworthy. It is being used to supply parts for the other. The Coast Guard also has a medium-class icebreaker.
The Coast Guard said it needs at least eight icebreakers, including three Polar Class heavy icebreakers. Mr. O’Rourke said he wrote a report detailing these needs in 2008. Construction only recently began on one of the heavy ships. The other two have yet to be funded.
He said that at this rate, the ship won’t be delivered until 2018, a full 20 years after the need was first reported.
‘Icebreakers Don’t Just Break Ice’
Mr. O'Rourke pointed out that the ships have the equipment and technology to allow scientific, military, and humanitarian crews to work in the Arctic’s inhospitable conditions.“The icebreakers don’t just break ice,” he said. “They can be considered a form of mobile infrastructure.”
Russia occupies the largest geographic area in the Arctic Circle. Almost half of the Arctic Circle’s population is Russian. It has 51 polar icebreakers split between its military and civilian fleets. Even China, which has no territory or people in the Arctic, has two icebreakers.
“Russia has quite a lot of people and economic activity [in the Arctic], and that’s reflected in their icebreaker fleet,” Mr. O’Rourke said.
US Must Evolve Also
As the situation evolves, the United States needs to grow as well, Mr. O’Rourke said. The United States will need bases, aircraft, and personnel in the region to protect its interests. The experts said the United States is building a deepwater port in Nome, Alaska, but more needs to be done.Mr. Coffey and Ms. Brimmer said the United States needs to strengthen diplomatic relations with all the countries interested in the Arctic. Mr. Coffey pointed out that Russia already has the systems to address any security issues it may face.
He said that just as the invasion of Ukraine impacted the Arctic, so will activity in the Arctic ripple out to other parts of the world. He said that if the United States is going to deal with China adequately, it must address Russia in the Arctic.
“Anything we do to weaken Russia will weaken China,” Mr. Coffey said.
